Xbaggypants Picks & Plays January 31st, 2014
Jets -120
Preds/Devils Under 1.5 1P -140 HALF UNIT
Jets -120
Preds/Devils Under 1.5 1P -140 HALF UNIT
Hot teams
— Rangers won five of their last seven games.
— Blues/Hurricanes both won four of their last five games.
— Winnipeg won six of its last eight games.
Cold teams
— Islanders lost last four games, allowing 18 goals.
— Washington lost eight of its last ten games. Red Wings are 3-5 in last eight games.
— Nashville lost four of last six at home. Devils lost three of their last four road games.
— Canucks lost three of their last four games.
Totals
— Islanders’ last six indoor games went over the total.
— Under is 7-2-1 in last ten St Louis games.
— Last three Detroit-Washington games went over.
— Six of last eight Nashville games went over total.
— Last three Vancouver games went over the total.
Series records
— Rangers are 9-4 in last thirteen games with the Islanders.
— Blues lost three of last four visits to Raleigh.
— Red Wings lost their last three games with Washington.
— Devils won three of last four games with Nashville.
— Canucks won five of last six games with Winnipeg.
Cleveland State (-9) beat Detroit 73-63 Jan 8, shooting 55% inside arc with only six turnovers (+8). Vikings won six of their last eight games, but lost three of last four visits to Detroit- they’re 2-2 on Horizon road, losing at Green Bay/Youngstown. Titans lost five of last seven games, but beat UIC at home Wednesday. Horizon home teams are 5-10 vs spread in games where spread was 5 or less points.
Penn won 17 of last 20 games vs Dartmouth, winning last four here by 2-12-3-10 points; Quakers are 4-11 this year but upset Princeton in their Ivy opener- they’re 1-6 on road, with only win at Monmouth way back on Nov. 12. Dartmouth lost its last five games after starting 7-4 against D-I teams; their last three games were vs St John’s/Harvard (2)- they’ve been over their heads- their best win is over #284 Jacksonville State.
Princeton is 11-3 vs D-I teams but got upset at Penn in its Ivy opener; home team won Tigers’ last seven games with Harvard– Tigers lost last three visits here by 12-3-12 points. Princeton is 1-1 vs top 100 teams, losing by 3 at Butler, winning by 2 in OT over Penn State. 15-3 Harvard split its last four games, with a bad loss at FAU; they’re 2-2 vs teams in top 100, beating Green Bay by 12, Vermont by 6.
Cornell is 0-15 vs D-I teams; its only win was over a D-III team- they’re 13-1 in last 14 games with Brown, winning last 10 visits here, last two by 6-3 points. Only two of Cornell’s 15 losses are by less than 8 points. Brown is 8-7 vs D-I teams after splitting pair with Yale last week – all seven of their losses are by single digit margins. Six of Brown’s eight wins are by 10+ points.
Yale lost five of last six games, is 0-5 vs top 100 teams, with three of the five losses by 18+ points; Bulldogs won eight of last nine games against Columbia, winning last five here by 8-17-5-8-19 points. Columbia won 8 of last 9 games with only loss by 6 to St John’s; Lions only lost by 9 at Michigan State- they’re 7-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200- only one of their six losses was more than nine points.
Youngstown won four of last five games with only loss to Valparaiso by 3, but they’re 2-6 on road, with only wins at teams ranked #344/#266. #166 Oakland is 8-14, but played the #8 schedule in country; they’re 3-4 in league, 0-4 if they allow 76+ points, 3-0 if they allow less. Horizon home favorites of 5 or less points are 3-11 vs spread. YSU is shooting 54.6% inside arc in Horizon play, which leads the Horizon.
St Peter’s (+7.5) made 31-35 from line, had only six turnovers in 77-69 win at Rider Jan 16, just its 4th win in last 17 series games, but they’ve lost three games in row since, by 7-17-8 points. Rider won six of its last seven visits here; they’re 3-4 in last seven games, 3-3 on MAAC road, losing last road game by 16 at Manhattan. Home teams are 7-3 vs spread in MAAC games where spread was less than 3 points.
Iona won five of its last six games, with only loss by hoop to Canisius, when Gaels rallied from 20-point deficit to lead in second half. Iona won five of last seven games with Manhattan, but teams split last four games played here, where Gaels are 5-1 in MAAC play, with all five wins by 9+ points. MAAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 7-5 vs spread. Manhattan is 14-5 but lost two of its last three games.
Murray State (-7) beat Austin Peay 89-67 at home Jan 11, outscoring Governors 21-7 on foul line; Racers won last six series games, winning last four played here, by 16-9-12-3 points. Murray is 7-1 in OVC, 2-1 on road, winning by 4-13 points, losing at Edwardsville. Austin Peay is 1-4 in its last five games; only five of its 21 games (2-3) were vs teams ranked in the top 200.
NBA information
Hot teams
— Grizzlies won nine of their last ten games. Minnesota won five of its last six games.
— Thunder won their last nine games (8-1 vs spread). Brooklyn is 10-2 in its last dozen games.
— Raptors won four of their last five games.
— Bobcats are 5-4 in their last nine games.
— Jazz won three of their last four home games.
Cold Teams
— Orlando lost 15 of its last 17 games. Bucks lost 21 of their last 24 games (1-6 vs spread last 7 on road).
— Hawks are 5-7 in their last dozen games. 76ers lost six of last eight, covered one of last four.
— Kings lost their last five games (1-3-1 vs spread). Dallas lost three of its last four games.
— Denver lost four of its last six games.
— Lakers lost last five games (0-3 vs spread in last three).
— Golden State is 3-5 in its last eight games.
Series records
— Magic won nine of last eleven games with Milwaukee.
— 76ers lost three of last four games with Atlanta.
— Minnesota beat Grizzlies 101-93 Dec 15, ending 11-game series skid.
— Nets won last two games with Thunder, after losing previous seven.
— Mavericks won 16 of last 18 games with Sacramento.
— You’re reading www.armadillosports.com.
— Nuggets won nine of last eleven games with Toronto.
— Lakers won their last five games against Charlotte.
— Warriors are 2-0 vs Utah this season: 102-88/98-87.
Totals
— Five of last seven Orlando games stayed under total.
— Six of last seven Atlanta games went over the total; eight of Philly’s last ten games stayed under.
— Last eight Memphis games stayed under the total.
— Four of last five Brooklyn home games went over.
— Over is 12-1 in last thirteen Sacramento-Dallas games.
— Seven of last nine Denver games went over the total.
— Eight of last nine Laker games went over the total.
— Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Utah games. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Golden State games.
Back to backs
— Warriors are 3-5 vs spread if they played the night before.
Jackets -125
Lightning +100
Stars -130
Pens -110
Avs Under 1.5 1p -150
Habs Under 1.5 1p -150
Avs Under 1.5 1p -150
Marquette’s last three games all went to OT; Eagles lost by two of three by 9-12 points, beating Georgetown, but they won their last nine games vs Providence, winning last six at home, all by 7+ points. Eagles are 2-9 vs teams in top 100, beating Hoyas/GW. Big East home favorites of less than 5 points are 2-4 vs spread. Providence won its last five games but four of them were at home; the fifth was in OT at St John’s.
Cincinnati is 10-point dog despite being 7-0 in AAC; they’ve won last 12 games, beating Pitt/Memphis away from home. Bearcats are 3-4 in last seven games vs Louisville, losing last two visits here by 5-16 points. Cardinals won last four games, last three by 39-12-39 points; they’re 1-2 as home favorites, beating SMU by 8, losing to Memphis. AAC home favorites of 9+ points are 9-3 vs spread.
Tex-Arlington is in its third league in three years, so these road trips are all new to Mavericks, who are 4-3 in Sun Belt but played five of seven games at home- they lost by 20 at ULL, won at Texas State. Western Kentucky iis 5-2 in league but both losses were at home, with the only home win in double OT vs Arkansas State. Sun Belt home favorites are 10-16 vs spread. Hilltoppers won last three games by 5-18-9 points.
Nebraska threw its third-leading scorer off team this week; they’ve won last two home games, with only home loss in league to Michigan by one point. Huskers/Indiana split two league meetings; Hoosiers lost by point here in ’12, won by 29 at home LY- they’re 3-4 in last seven games, 1-2 on road, losing by 3 at Illinois, 5 at Michigan State. Big Dozen home teams are 7-9 vs spread if number is 5 or less points.
UTEP threw three kids off team few weeks ago but they’re still 9-1 in last ten games, winning last four while allowing 54.6 ppg. Miners are 2-1 at home in league, winning by 10-19, losing to Charlotte. C-USA home underdogs are 5-6 vs spread. Louisiana Tech also won nine of last ten games but lost last road game, at Southern Miss; Bulldogs are 2-4 against teams in top 150, winning in OT at Oklahoma, beating Bonnies by 4.
Home side won eight of last nine USC-Oregon State games; Trojans lost last four visits to Corvallis by 4-6-4-19 points- they split at home last week after 0-5 start in league. USC is 0-3 on Pac-12 road, losing by 34-18-21 points. Beavers are 3-4 in league, 2-1 at home, losing to Cal by 5, beating Stanford/Oregon- their Pac-12 wins are by 8-9-11. Pac-12 home favorites of 7+ points are 12-7 vs spread.
Oregon lost five of last six games after a 13-0 start, losing both games at home in Pac-12, to Cal/Stanford. Ducks won last four games vs UCLA, by 17-7-8-9 points. Bruins are 5-2 in league but beat Colorado in Buffs’ first game without star Dinwiddie, lost by 5 at Utah in only road tilts. Pac-12 home teams are 10-7 vs spread if number was 5 or less points. UCLA is forcing turnovers 21.6% of time, best in Pac-12 play.
St Mary’s won five in row, 10 of last 11 games with San Diego, taking four of last five here, with wins by 23-12-6-10 points. This is first road game in 26 days for Gaels, who won at Pacific/Portland, lost by 21 at Gonzaga on WCC road. Toreros are 3-6 but split only two home games, beating LMU, losing by 4 to Pepperdine. Favorites are 8-1 vs spread in WCC games where number was less than 4 points.
Home side won seven of last eight Irvine-UCSB games; Anteaters lost last five visits to Thunderdome by 7-3-13-18-3 points, but they’re 4-1 in Big West so far, allowing 48 ppg in wins at Long Beach/Riverside, by 4-20 points. Irvine has blocked 16.6% of opponents’ shots in its league games. Underdogs are 8-1-1 vs spread in Big West games where spread was 6 or less points. UCSB split its first two conference home games.
Chattanooga is 8-0 in SoCon in Wade’s first year after coming over from VCU, where he was an assistant on their Final Four team. Mocs are on 10-game win streak after starting season 4-8; their last five losses are all by 13+ points. Southern Conference double digit home favorites are 1-6 vs spread. Davidson is 6-1 in league, winning home games by 12-30, but they also lost a home game, in OT to Elon.
Quinnipiac won six of last eight games, is 5-0 at home in MAAC, with wins by 4-12-5-9-14 points- they won in OT at Manhattan in last game Sunday. MAAC home teams are 8-5 vs spread in games where number was 3 or less points. Canisius won five of last six games; their two road games in that streak were decided by total of three points. Quinnipiac is the worst team in country forcing turnovers (12% of time).
Weber State won its last 11 games with Northern Arizona, but needed OT to win 80-78 here LY; they’ve won last five visits to Flagstaff- they split first two Big Sky road games, losing at Northern Colorado, winning by 12 at North Dakota. Big Sky home underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-1 vs spread. Lumberjacks are 5-3 in league, 3-0 at home, but none of three teams they beat are ranked higher than #279 in country.
Northern Colorado won five of its last seven games with Portland State; isweeping Vikings by 17-10 points LY. Bears are 7-1 but split only two road games, on Montana trip. Portland State won four of last five games, is 3-1 at home in league, winning last three by 3-3-9 points, with loss to Montana State. Big Sky home underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-1 vs spread. Northern Colorado is shooting 57.9% inside the arc.
NBA information
Hot teams
— Suns won five of their last six games. Indiana won seven of last nine.
— New York won its last three games, scoring 116.3 ppg.
— Clippers won nine of their last eleven games.
Cold Teams
— Cavaliers lost four of their last five games.
— Warriors lost five of their last seven games.
Series records
— Suns won five of last seven games with Indiana.
— Cavaliers lost five of last seven games with New York.
— Clippers lost six of last nine games with Golden State.
Totals
— Four of last five Indiana-Phoenix games went over.
— Seven of last eight New York games went over the total; last five Cleveland games stayed under.
— Seven of last nine Clipper games went over the total. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Golden State games.
Back to backs
— Suns are 6-4 vs spread if they played the night before.
— Clippers are 6-5 vs spread if they played night before.
Hot teams
— Bruins won their last four games, scoring 21 goals.
— Toronto won seven of last nine games. Panthers won three of their last four road games.
— Washington won last two games, scoring 10 goals, after losing previous seven games.
— Lightning won three of their last four games.
— Minnesota won nine of its last thirteen games. Colorado won six of last eight.
— Sharks won six of their last seven games. Flames won last three games, all by one goal.
— Coyotes won three of their last four home games.
— Anaheim won 20 of its last 24 games.
— Penguins won five of their last seven games.
Cold teams
— Canadiens lost four of their last five games.
— Columbus lost its last three games, outscored 11-6.
— Senators lost four of their last six games.
— Devils lost last three road games, scoring three goals. Dallas lost four of last six games.
— Sabres lost seven of their last eight games.
— Flyers lost four of their last five games.
— Los Angeles lost six of its last seven games.
Totals
— Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Boston games.
— Four of last five Florida games went over total.
— Four of last five Washington games stayed under.
— Four of last five Tampa Bay games went over.
— Three of last four New Jersey-Dallas games stayed under.
— Under is 5-1-2 in last eight Minnesota games.
— Under is 8-1-1 in last ten San Jose games.
— Seven of last eight Buffalo games went over the total.
— Six of last eight Philly games went over the total; four of last five Duck games stayed under the total. .
— Last four Los Angeles games stayed under total.
Series records
— Canadiens won their last four games with Boston.
— Toronto won three of its last four games with Florida.
— Blue Jackets lost five of last six games with Washington.
— Lightning won four of last five games with Ottawa.
— Devils won three of last four games with New Jersey.
— Avalanche won three of last four games with Minnesota.
— Sharks won four in row, 10 of last 13 games with Calgary.
— Sabres won six of their last seven games with Phoenix.
— Ducks won four of last five games with Philly.
— Kings lost five of last six games with Pittsburgh.
Home side won last ten St Joe’s-Dayton games; Hawks lost its last six games in this gym by average of 8 points. Flyers lost last three games, are 0-2 in A-13 home games, losing to St Louis/VCU, two best teams in A-13. St Joe’s won four of last five games, is 1-2 on A-13 road, losing at UMass by 4, Richmond by 15 with win at George Mason. Atlantic 13 home favorites of 5 or less points are 7-4 vs spread.
LaSalle won last five games with George Washington; winning by 4-9 in last two visits here; Explorers (-3) beat GW 76-72 Jan 9, making 9-20 on arc- GW was 3-14. Colonials are 4-0 since first meeting, beating URI by 13, VCU by 10 at home. Atlantic 13 home favorites of 5 or less points are 7-4 vs spread. LaSalle lost its last two games, losing to VCU in OT in its last game; favorites covered four of their five league games.
St Bonaventure won four of last six games with UMass, winning two of last three played here; Bonnies’ last three series wins were by total of 10 points. UMass split its two A-13 road games, with games decided by a total of four points. Atlantic 13 home teams are 10-8 vs spread in games where spread was 5 or less points. Underdogs covered five of Bonnies’ six A-13 games; they’re 2-1 at home, beating Richmond/LaSalle.
Road teams won four of last six Western Michigan-Buffalo games, with Broncos winning two of last three visits here. WMU is 2-1 on road in MAC, losing by 19 at EMU, winning at Miami/Kent. Buffalo is 4-2 in MAC, 3-0 as home faves, winning by 21-10-11 at home. MAC single digit home favorites are 3-12 vs spread this year. Broncos are turning it over 26.4% of time in MAC games, 2nd-worst rate in MAC.
Valparaiso was 3-0 vs Green Bay LY, winning by 12-1-19 points; they won three of last four games, are 2-1 at home in league, losing to Wright State by 17, beating UIC/Milwaukee. Horizon home teams are 3-12 vs spread if number was 5 or less points. Green Bay won its last 11 games, is 7-0 in Horizon, winning road games by 7-10-5 points- they lost last two visits to Valpo, by 3-12 points.
Saint Louis is 6-3 in last nine games with Richmond, holding Spiders to 48 ppg in wins by 14-5 the last two years. Billikens won first five A-13 games, are 1-1 as home favorites, winning by 6-22 points. Richmond won last four games, but is on road for first time in 18 days; they split first two road games, winning in OT at Fordham, lost at St Bonaventure by 14. Atlantic 13 home favorites of 8+ points are 4-6 vs spread.
Ole Miss is 4-0 in SEC since Henderson came back from his suspension, with three of four wins by 11+ points; Rebels have road wins at South Carolina/Vandy- they won last three games with Tennessee, by 5-18-6 points. Vols are 2-1 at home in SEC, beating Auburn by 11, Arkansas by 7, losing to A&M. SEC home favorites of 8+ points are 9-5 vs spread. Rebels’ Summers is an amazing 33-60 (55%) from arc this year.
Syracuse is unbeaten, #2 in country, 6-0 in ACC, but they wouldn’t be human if they weren’t looking ahead to Duke game Saturday, when the dome will be packed. Orange are 3-0 as road favorites, winning its away games by 20-10-12 points. Wake Forest won three of last four games, is 3-0 at home in ACC, beating UNC/NC State/Notre Dame. ACC home underdogs are 4-9 vs spread. Deacons are 3-2 as an ACC underdog.
Florida State won four of last five games vs NC State, winming four of last five visits here; Seminoles lost last two road games, at Virginia by 12, Duke by 22- they’re turning ball over 22% of time in ACC games, but making 43.1% from arc, #1 in league. Wolfpack beat Maryland and Ga Tech in last two home games, after losing to Pitt/Virginia in its first two. ACC home teams are 4-13 vs spread if spread was 4 or less points.
Kansas won four in row, 17 of last 18 games with Iowa State, beating Cyclones 77-70 (+2.5) in Ames Jan 13, despite 24 turnovers (-16) and ISU outscoring them 22-12 on line. Jayhawks are 1-1-1 as home faves, winning home games by 26-2-10 points. State lost three of its last four games, losing by 5 at Oklahoma, 10 at Texas. Big X home favorites of 7+ points are 4-7 vs spread. Kansas has best eFG% in Big X, despite fact they turn ball over 21.6% of time, worst in league.
Arizona won its last seven games with Stanford, winning last three here by 2-9-13 points; Wildcats are 7-0 in Pac-12, 2-0 as road favorites, with wins by 4 at UCLA, 20 at USC on foreign soil. Stanford won four of its last five games after winning in OT at USC Sunday; Cardinal is 2-1 at home, losing to Cal, sweeping Washington schools. Arizona is forcing a turnover 22.9% of time. Pac-12 home underdogs of 5+ points are 6-4.
California won six of last eight games with Arizona State, but lost by 4 in Tempe LY; Sun Devils lost last four visits to Berkeley, by 10-16-4-21 points. ASU lost by 15 at UCLA, 23 at USC in its last two road games- favorites covered five of their last six games. Pac-12 home favorites of 5+ points are 14-8 vs spread. Cal Bears got swept in LA last weekend, is 2-0 as home favorite, beating Washington by 26, Wazzu by 21.
Belmont (-7.5) beat Morehead State 80-66 Thursday, making 8-14 from arc, outscoring Eagles 24-13 on line; Bruins are 3-1 on OVC road, with only loss at 11 at Eastern Kentucky. Morehead needed OT to beat 2-21 Tennessee State Saturday; Eagles are 0-3 vs Belmont, losing by a point here LY, despite Belmont making only 11-21 from line. OVC home sides are 8-5 vs spread when number was 3 or less points.
NBA information
Hot teams
— Thunder won its last eight games (7-1 vs spread). Miami won four of its last five games.
— Raptors won three of their last four games.
— Suns won four of their last five games.
— Pelicans/T’wolves both won four of their last five games.
— Rockets won seven of their last ten games.
— Nuggets won last two games, covered last three.
— Bulls won six of their last seven road games.
— Grizzlies won eight of their last nine games.
— Clippers won nine of their last eleven games. Wizards won six of their last nine.
Cold Teams
— Magic lost 14 of their last 16 games.
— Pistons lost four of their last five games. Atlanta lost two of its last three home games.
— 76ers/Celtics both lost six of their last seven games.
— Bucks lost 12 of last 13 games (1-4 vs spread last five).
— Dallas is 4-6 in last ten games, but covered six of last eight.
— Bobcats covered twice in their last eight road games.
— Spurs lost three of their last four games.
— Sacramento lost six of its last seven games.
Series records
— Thunder lost their last six games with Miami.
— Raptors won their last four games with Orlando.
— Hawks won nine of last eleven games with Detroit.
— 76ers lost seven of last nine games in Boston.
— Suns won five of last seven games with Milwaukee.
— Pelicans lost four of last five games with Minnesota.
— Mavericks won 12 of last 13 games with Houston.
— Nuggets won last four games with Charlotte, all by 11+ points.
— Spurs beat Chicago by 18-14 points LY, after losing five of previous six games with the Bulls.
— Kings lost 14 of their last 16 games with Memphis.
— Clippers won nine of last ten games with Washington.
Totals
— Seven of last ten Thunder games stayed under the total; six of last eight Miami games went over.
— Last four Orlando games stayed under the total.
— Four of last five Detroit games went over the total.
— Seven of last nine Philly games stayed under total.
— Seven of last ten Phoenix games went over the total.
— Under is 5-2-1 in last eight New Orleans games.
— Five of last seven Dallas games went over the total.
— Seven of last eight Denver games went over the total.
— Seven of last ten San Antonio games stayed under.
— Last seven Memphis games stayed under the total.
— Six of last eight Clipper games went over the total.
Back to backs
— Orlando is 3-2 vs spread when playing second night in row on road.
— Detroit is 2-5-1 vs spread on road if it played night before.
— Celtics are 8-4 vs spread if they played night before, 1-1 at home.
— Pelicans are 1-2-1 vs spread if they won night before.
— Houston is 7-3 vs spread on road if it played night before.
— Memphis is 2-3 vs spread on road if it played night before.
— Wizards are 3-1 vs spread if they won the night before.
Hot teams
— Rangers won seven of their last ten games.
— Sharks won six of their last seven games. Edmonton won last two games, after losing the previous six games before that.
Cold teams
— Islanders lost their last three games, allowing 16 goals.
— Blackhawks lost last four games, scoring 10 goals. Vancouver is 3-5 in its last eight games.
Totals
— Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Ranger games.
— Under is 8-1-1 in last ten San Jose games.
— Under is 16-8-3 in Vancouver’s home games.
Series records
— Rangers won eight of last twelve games with the Islanders.
— Sharks won their last five games with Edmonton.
— Blackhawks lost three of last four visits to Vancouver.
Flyers -135 x2
Kings -105
Caps -140
Hawks/Ducks +121
Jackets -110
**HALF UNIT**
Kings/Coyotes Under 1.5 1P -145 **HALF UNIT**
Bruins/Panthers Under 1.5 -145 **HALF UNIT**
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