Month

Orange Bowl, Miami 12/31
Georgia Tech lost four of last five bowls, scoring 17.2 ppg; extra time to prep helps against one-dimensional option attack. Tech lost this game to Iowa 24-14 (-6) five years ago. Johnson is 3-7 in bowl games. Miss State was #1 in country as late as mid-November; they lost two of last three games overall after 9-0 start. State won four of last five bowls (Mullen won three of four bowls); they’re 3-1 in games with single digit spread. Tech is 7-2 in such games. Jackets covered last six games, scored 30+ in six of last seven games. Think grass field helps Miss State, slower track, less precise. Underdogs are 3-2 in last five Orange Bowls.

Fiesta Bowl, Glendale AZ 12/31
Arizona is 6-1 this season in games decided by 7 or less points, they’re 4-4 in games with single digit spread. RichRod is 4-4 in bowls, but 2-0 with Arizona, winning 49-48/42-19 last two years. Boise State scored an average of 47.8 ppg in winning last eight games after loss at Air Force in October had them at 3-2; they’re 4-0 in games with a single digit spread, also won four of last five bowls, losing to Oregon St. LY. Boise State beat TCU 17-10 (+7) in this game five years ago, also had their famous upset of Oklahoma here eight years ago. Dogs are 3-2 vs spread in Fiesta Bowl last five years, with three of last four going over total.

Peach Bowl, Atlanta 12/31
TCU thinks they got hosed out of 4-team playoff; they’re right, but as far as this game goes, will Horned Frogs come to play? Its only question in this game that matters. SEC opponent figures to motivate them, no? Ole Miss won/covered its last five bowl games, allowing 10.3 ppg in last three; TCU is 3-2 in last five bowls (0-5 vs spread), scoring only 19 ppg, with all five decided by 7 or less points. Ole Miss lost three of last five games after a 7-0 start; this is consolation prize. Underdogs covered three of last four Peach Bowls; SEC teams lost three of last four visits here; they’re 4-1 in bowls so far this month, 22-8 in last 30 overall.

Hot teams
— Islanders won five of their last seven games. Winnipeg won four of last six.
— Rangers won eight of their last nine games. Florida won four of last six games.
— Lightning won last three games, allowing six goals.
— Bruins won three of their last four games.
— Columbus won nine of its last eleven games.
— Ducks won ten of their last thirteen games.
— Arizona won last three games, allowing four goals. Dallas Stars won six of last seven games.
— Calgary won last three games, allowing five goals.

Cold teams
–– Sabres lost five of their last six games.
— Maple Leafs lost five of their last six games.
— Carolina lost nine of its last eleven games. Penguins lost last four games, scoring seven goals.
— Minnesota lost five of its last six games.
— Devils lost eight of their last ten games. Detroit lost seven of last nine.
— Sharks lost last three games, scoring four goals.
— Colorado lost eight of its last twelve games. Flyers lost 15 of their last 22 games.
— Oilers lost nine of their last ten games.

Series records
— Islanders won six of last nine games with Winnipeg.
— Rangers won four of last five games with Florida.
— Lightning are 8-5 in last thirteen games with Buffalo.
— Maple Leafs won three of last four games with Boston.
— Penguins won six of last eight games with Carolina.
— Blue Jackets won five of last seven games with Minnesota.
— Red Wings won four of last five games with New Jersey.
— Home side won eight of last nine Anaheim-San Jose games.
— Dallas Stars won four of last five games with Arizona.
— Home side won last eight Flyer-Avalanche games.
— Flames won six of last eight games with Edmonton.

Totals
— Seven of last nine Islander road games went over.
— Five of last seven Ranger road games stayed under.
— Last five Buffalo home games went over total.
— Five of last six Toronto road games stayed under; last four Boston games went over.
— Seven of last eight Penguin home games stayed under. Under is 13-1 in last 14 Carolina games.
— Four of last five Columbus home games went over.
— 10 of last 13 New Jersey road games stayed under.
— Under is 7-0-1 in last eight San Jose road games.
— Last five Arizona road games went over total.
— Four of last five Philly road games went over.
— Four of last five games in Saddledome stayed under.

Back-to-back
— Florida is 1-2 if it played night before.
— San Jose is 2-3 if it played night before.
— Oilers are 1-4 if they played night before.

Hot Teams
— Pacers are 3-2 SU in last five games, 7-1 vs spread in last eight (3-3-1 HF).
— Bucks are 5-4 SU in last nine games, 7-1-1 vs spread (12-4 AU).
— Pelicans are 5-3 SU in last eight games, 10-3 vs spread in last 13 (6-3 last nine AU).
— Suns won/covered six of last seven games (4-5 AU).

Cold Teams
— Celtics lost last four games (5-4 HF). Sacramento lost eight of its last ten games (7-4 AU).
— Miami lost five of its last seven games (5-6 AU).
— Clippers are 5-6 in last 11 games, 0-5 vs spread in game following the five wins (1-5 last six HF). Knicks lost eight in row, 18 of last 19 games (4-1 last five AU).
— Cleveland lost three of last four games (1-5 last six HF).
— Spurs lost six of their last eight games (6-9 HF).
— Charlotte lost last three games, all by 8+ points (5-4-2 AU). Rockets lost four of last six games (4-7 last 11 HF).
— Thunder are 3-4 in last seven games (2-5 vs spread, 6-2 last eight HF).

Series Records
— Kings lost last five visits to Boston by 19-8-24-18-10 points.
— Heat lost six of last seven visits to Indiana.
— Clippers won four of last five games with New York.
— Cavaliers won five of last seven games with Milwaukee.
— Pelicans are 2-0 vs Spurs this year, after losing 18 of previous 21 with San Antonio.
— Rockets won their last seven games with Charlotte.
— Thunder won 12 of their last 14 games with Phoenix.

Totals
— Nine of last twelve Boston games stayed under total.
— Eight of last ten Miami games stayed under the total.
— 12 of last 15 New York road games went over.
— Four of last five Cleveland home games stayed under.
— Last eight San Antonio home games went over total.
— Seven of last nine Houston games went over total.
— Under is 9-2-2 in Oklahoma City home games.

Back-to-Backs
–– Cleveland is 4-4 vs spread if it played night before, 1-2 at home.
— Pelicans are 8-0 vs spread if they played night before; Spurs are 5-4 if they played night before, but 3-0 at home.
— Phoenix is 2-4 vs spread if it played night before.

East vs West

St John’s won its last three games with Seton Hall by total of six points, beating Pirates twice by a point LY; their win here was first in last seven visits to Hall. Red Storm won 69-57 at Syracuse in only true road game this year- their eFG% defense is #8 in US. Seton Hall is without star freshman Whitehead; they’re 2-2 vs top 100 teams, with both wins by 4.

Purdue won eight of last ten games with Minnesota, winning in triple OT in last meeting; Gophers lost last seven visits to Purdue, with six losses by 12+ points. Minnesota won its last eight games; they split couple of true road games, winning 15 at Wake Forest, losing to St John’s. Purdue lost last three games, allowing 88 ppg- they’ve been off for nine days.

UConn whacked Temple twice LY, by 24-13 points; Huskies is 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with only win by 11 over Dayton- they force turnovers 20.2% of time, shoot just 31.3% from arc. Owls won five of their last six games, including 25-point win over Kansas; they’re 1-2 in true road tilts, with only win at #295 Delaware. Temple allowed 56.7 ppg in their last three games.

Villanova beat Butler twice LY, by 3 in OT in Indy, by 19 here; Wildcats are 13-0 with six top 100 wins- they force turnovers 24.6% of the time, shoot 55% inside arc. Butler split two true road games, losing by 12 at Tennessee, winning by 23 at Indiana State. Bulldogs force turnovers 24% of time, are 1-3 vs top 100 teams- their losses are by 13-12-9 points.

Nebraska won three of four vs Indiana in Big 14 play, beating Hoosiers by 5-10 points LY; Cornhuskers won two meetings here by total of six points. Hoosiers are 3-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to Georgetown in OT last game; they’re making 41.7% of 3’s (#5 in US), but this is their first true road game. Two of Nebraska’s last three wins came in overtime.

Kansas State lost last game at home to 3-10 Texas Southern squad that also won at Michigan State; Wildcats are making 40% of 3’s (#17 in US), but turn ball over 21.8% of time. K-State starts league play on Saturday. Georgia won its last four games, beating Mercer in triple OT in its last game; Dawgs lost by 7 at Ga Tech, won at Chattanooga in its road tilts.

Missouri State won nine of last 11 games with Southern Illinois, which is coached by former State coach Hinson; Bears won two of last four at SIU, after losing previous seven. State is 1-3 on road vs D-I teams, with only win by 12 at SE Missouri State. Salukis haven’t played in nine days since losing last two games, including loss to #302 New Orleans.

Fresno State lost last four games with New Mexico, losing by 27 in last visit to Pit; Bulldogs are 3-8 vs D-I teams, 1-4 on road, with three losses by 15+ points- they’re shooting 26.6% on arc, 12th-worst in US. Lobos are banged up, have been off for eight days since loss to Grand Canyon, a bad loss- they missed injured soph PG Neal, their coach’s son.

Marquette won its last six games with DePaul, winning last two visits to Chicago by 13-2 points; Warriors lost by 11 at Ohio State in only true road game- they’ve won last four games, are forcing turnovers 23.7% of time. Blue Demons lost last six games after 6-1 start, losing to #179/269 teams in last two games- they’re turning ball over 21.3% of the time.

Home side won both Creighton-Providence games LY, then Friars upset the Bluejays in Big East tourney. PC won its last four games, three vs top 100 teams, beating Miami by 14 in last game nine days ago. Jays are 4-4 in last eight games after 5-0 start, losing last game to North Texas on road. Creighton has played schedule #300 so far, Providence #114.

UNLV won six in row, 21 of last 24 games with Wyoming, going 5-3 in last eight visits to Laramie; young Rebels split couple road games, with 22-point loss at Arizona State, 14-point win at South Dakota. Cowboys are 11-2 vs 12th-easiest schedule in country; they’re making 58.4% inside arc, which will surely be challenged by UNLV’s shot blockers.

Boise State glue guy Drmic is done for year, PG Marks is expected back for Bronco squad after missing four games. Boise had 6-game win streak snapped by Loyola in last game; their last two games were decided by a total of six points. Colorado State is 13-0 but five of their last eight wins were by 3 or less points; their last three top 100 wins were by a total of just seven points.

Georgetown is 8-3 vs schedule #82, splitting four neutral court games but not playing one true road game; home side won both of Hoyas’ games vs Xavier LY, with Musketeers winning here by 13. Xavier is 9-3 with the losses by total of eight points; Musketeers have #13 eFG% in country, will be tested by Hoya defense that forces turnovers 22% of the time.

These are plays according to my numbers

Bruins Home 13 & 18
Lightning Road 12
Wild Road 5
Dallas/Coyotes Under 5
Red Wings Home 1, 13 & 15
Islanders Road 12
Ducks Home 18
Ducks Under 4 & 6 1p

(YTD/MONTH/WEEK)
Home 1 (9-3/8-2/3-0)
Home 2 (16-8/4-4/0-0)
Home 5 (7-4/6-4/2-0)
Home 9 (5-1/1-1/0-0)
Home 13 (12-5/5-2/1-0)
Home 14 (2-0/0-0/0-0)
Home 15 (22-12/8-5/1-0)
Home 16 (4-3/3-3/0-1)
Home 17 (10-5/1-2/0-0)
Home 18 (28-16/17-9/2-0)

Road 1 (1-2/1-2/0-0)
Road 2 (0-3/0-3/0-0)
Road 2 (3-1/0-0/0-0)
Road 3 (0-0/0-0/0-0)
Road 4 (1-1/1-0/0-0)
Road 5 (29-19/8-10/0-3)
Road 9 (5-3/2-1/0-)
Road 10 (19-14/9-11/0-0)
Road 11 (9-5/6-4/0-0)
Road 12 (41-31/13-20/0-3)
Road 13 (0-0/0-0/0-0)

Under Test 2  (1-0/0-0/0-0)
Under Test 4 (25-20/14-11/3-2)
Under Test 5 (5-4/4-4/0-0)
Under Test 6 (17-5/10-3/1-0)
Under 7 1st Period Play (23-16/11-12/2-1)
Under 8 1st Period Play (13-14/5-7/2-1)
Road Test 1 (1-0/0-0/0-0)
Road Test 4 (1-0/0-0/0-0)

Foster Farms Bowl, San Francisco 12/30
Stanford should have big crowd edge playing in Bay Area; their best WR Montgomery (61 catches) is out here. Cardinal split pair of Rose Bowls last two years, fair to question their enthusiasm for a lesser bowl, even if it is near home. Edsall is 3-3 in bowls, losing 31-20 to Marshall LY in his first bowl with Terps. Maryland is 3-4 in last seven games, with three of losses by 22+ points; Stanford is 3-5 as favorite this year- they won last two games by 21 points each, after losing three of previous four games. Shaw lost two of his three bowl games. Favorites won/covered this game four of last five years, with four of five staying under total.

Belk Bowl, Charlotte 12/30
Louisville DC Grantham was Georgia’s DC the last four years; he should have great idea on Dawgs’ personnel. Louisville scored 30+ points in its last five games, winning last three by 19-3-4 after losing to Florida State 42-31- they’re 5-2 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Louisville won four of last five bowls,.with the loss in this game to NC State three years ago. Petrino is 4-3 in bowl games, Richt is 8-5 but lost three of last four, despite being favored in all four games- all three losses were by 5 or less points. Georgia allowed 30+ points in all three losses; they’re 4-1 in games with single digit spreads. Faves covered 4 of last 5 Belk Bowls.

Music City Bowl, Nashville 12/30
Notre Dame gives backup QB Zaire his first career start here; Irish lost last four games, allowing 44.5 ppg- they gave up 244.8 rushing yards a game in last five games, bad news vs LSU team that ran for 264+ yards in its last three wins, including 384 in regular season finale vs A&M. ND is 3-2 in last five bowls, Kelly is 4-3 as bowl coach. SEC teams are 3-0 in this bowl season, are 21-7 in last 28 bowls. 14-9-1 against spread when favored. LSU split its last four bowls; Miles is 7-5 as bowl coach, 6-3 in Baton Rouge. Favorites won/covered four of last five Music City Bowls, with SEC teams winning last three by 6-14-8 points.

Hot teams
— Montreal won six of its last seven games. Panthers won four of their last five.
— Nashville won six of its last nine games.
— San Jose won its last eight home games, but lost last two overall.

Cold teams
–– Blues lost four of their last five games.
— Edmonton lost nine in row, 20 of last 21 games. Kings lost last four road games.
— Canucks lost six of their last eight games.

Series records
— Canadiens won five of last seven games with Florida.
— Blues won eight of last ten games with Nashville, but lost two of three this year.
— Kings won their last seven games with Edmonton.
— Sharks won 11 of their last 13 games with Vancouver.

Totals
— Four of last five Montreal road games stayed under.
— Five of last six Nashville games stayed under.
— Four of last five Los Angeles road games went over.
— Seven of last nine San Jose games stayed under.

Back-to-back
— Montreal is 4-2 on road if it played night before.
— Blues are 3-2 if they played night before; Nashville is 0-2.
— Los Angeles is 2-3 if it played the night before.

Hot Teams
— Detroit won last two games, by 10-23, after losing previous four (6-4 last ten AU). Magic won three of last four games (2-2 HF).
— Hawks won five of last six games (7-5 last 12 HF).
— Bulls won last seven games (5-2 last seven HF). Brooklyn won/covered four of last five games (7-5 last 12 AU).
— Suns won/covered their last six games (4-4 AU). Pelicans covered six of last eight games that followed a loss (6-5 HF).
— Washington won 13 of its last 16 games (1-3 AU). Dallas won five of its last seven games (2-7 last nine HF).
— Jazz won four of last six games, covered seven of last eight.
— Portland won eight of its last nine games (9-5 HF). Toronto also won eight of last nine games (10-4 A).

Cold Teams
— Cavaliers lost three of last four road games (2-1 AU).
— Spurs lost five of last seven games (5-2 AU). Memphis lost four of its last five games (0-5 last five HF).
— Minnesota lost last eight games (2-6 last eight AU).
— Lakers lost six of last seven games (3-1 last four AU). Denver lost six of its last nine games (1-8 vs spread, 3-4-1 HF).
— 76ers lost seven of their last nine games (6-9 AU). Golden State lost three of last five games after winning 16 in row (7-4 HF).

Series Records
— Magic won three of last four games with Detroit.
— Hawks won five of last six games with Cleveland.
— Spurs won four of last five games with Memphis (loss in 3 OTs).
— Bulls won five of last six vs Brooklyn, winning by 18-25 this year.
— Pelicans lost eight of last ten games with Phoenix.
— Mavericks won their last nine games with Washington.
— Jazz won eight of last twelve games with Minnesota (1-3 last four).
— Lakers lost their last seven games with Denver.
— Raptors lost ten of last eleven games with Portland.
— 76ers lost three of last four with Golden State, losing by 23-40 in LY’s meetings.

Totals
— Four of last five Orlando games stayed under total; five of Pistons’ last six games went over.
— Six of last eight Cleveland road games stayed under.
— 11 of last 13 San Antonio games went over total.
— Seven of last ten Brooklyn road games stayed under.
— Nine of last 12 New Orleans home games went over.
— Five of last six Dallas home games stayed under.
— Four of last five Minnesota road games stayed under.
— Four of last five Denver games stayed under total.
— Over is 10-3-1 in Toronto’s road games.
— 10 of last 12 Philly road games stayed under total.

Back-to-Backs
–– Orlando is 6-2 vs spread if it played night before, 1-1 at home.
— Nets are 3-3 vs spread if they played night before. Bulls are 4-4.
— Washington is 3-1 vs spread on road if it played night before.
— Utah is 2-5 vs spread if it played night before, 1-1 at home.

East vs West

Northwestern is 9-4 vs schedule #336, winning by 13 over Brown, losing by 9 at Butler in only two road games- they won last three games, giving up 54 ppg. Rutgers makes Big 14 debut two nites after 59-58 win at Monmouth in game they trailed by 6 early in second half- three Knights played 32:00+. Rutgers is 2-4 against teams in the top 150.

Ohio State won nine of last ten games with Iowa, but lost to Hawkeyes here LY, after Iowa had lost previous seven visits to OSU. Buckeyes are 11-2 vs schedule #330; best team they beat is #99 Marquette- they lost to Louisville/UNC, top 10 teams. Iowa lost two of last three games, but hasn’t played in 8 days; they won at UNC in only true road game.

Michigan won last seven games with Illinois, nipping Illini by point in Big 12 tourney, 10 days after them by 30. Wolverines lost four of last five games overall, are 2-3 vs top 100 teams. Illinois is 10-3 but lost by 9 at Miami in only true road game; they’re 1-3 vs top 100 teams, beating Baylor, losing other three top 100 games by 9-14-7 points.

Cincinnati is 8-3, losing only true road game in double OT at Nebraska; not sure if coach Cronin is back after anuerysm issue. Bearcats won by 11 at home over NC State LY, game they trailed by hoop with 10:55 to go. Wolfpack is 4-3 in last seven games, 3-3 vs top 100 teams; best team they beat is #66 LA Tech by 8. State starts ACC play Saturday.

Maryland got star G Wells back last game; they’re 12-1, with top 30 wins over Iowa State/Oklahoma State, with OSU win Terps’ only road game so far. Seven of Michigan State’s last eight wins are by 20+ points, but they also lost to Texas Southern. Spartans are making 42% of 3’s (#4 in USA) but just 63.2% on line. These might be two best teams in conference.

Florida won last five games with Florida State, winning last two visits to FSU by 4-25 points; Gators nipped State by point at home LY, are 7-4 this year but haven’t played in ten days. Seminoles are 5-4 vs schedule #295, 0-4 vs top 100 teams, losing by 36-6-5-20 points- they open SEC play Friday. Florida is forcing turnovers 24.3% of time (#20).

Georgia Tech survived -8 turnover ratio in 58-55 win at Charlotte LY, in game they led by 3 at half- they shot 56% inside arc. Tech is very strong on boards this year but makes 24% from arc (2nd-worst in US); they’re 3-2 vs top 100 teams. 49ers been off for 10 days since Georgetown beat them 81-78; they’re 6-5 vs sked #28- 3 of their last 5 wins were in OT.

Dayton is thin inside after big guy and his sub were thrown off the team; Flyers won 83-80 in OT at Ole Miss LY, outscoring Rebels 7-0 over last 1:11 of OT. Dayton is 2-2 vs top 100 teams, splitting pair vs SEC clubs, beating A&M by 2, losing to Arkansas. Ole Miss won eight of its last 10 games; they won both road games, at Troy by 10, Oregon by 6.

Arkansas State won last four games with South Alabama, winning by 24-9 in last two visits here; State won last three games with wins at Niagara, Miss State. USA is 0-8 vs D-I teams, but has two non-D-I wins; they’re turning ball over 21% of time, making just 27.9% from arcm with last two losses against teams not even in top 300.

Home side won nine of last eleven Little Rock-ULL games; Cajuns lost last two visits here by 9-11 points. Trojans been off for eight days since losing four of last five games- their best win is over #261 Bradley. ULL is 0-4 on road, with three losses by 10+ points; they turn ball over 23.9% of time, make just 31.4% from arc- they miss graduated PG Payton.

Home side won last four Oklahoma State-Missouri games when this was Big 12 rivalry; Cowboys lost four of last five visits here, split first two road games this year, winning by 18 at Memphis, losing by 18 at South Carolina. OSU is 6-0 vs teams outside top 100, with all six wins by 13+. Mizzou lost three of last four games, is 1-5 against top 100 teams.

Oregon State is 8-3 vs schedule #341, losing at Quinnipiac in last game; Beavers lost by 13 to Oklahoma State in only top 100 game- they force turnovers 24.6% of time, have #7 eFG% defense in country. UCSB lost three of last four games, losing in OT to both SMU/Oregon; Gauchos are 0-4 in true road games, losing by 10 at Kansas, in OT at Fla Gulf Coast.

Iona is 3-4 on road already, losing by 13 at Wofford, 17 at Arkansas in its two top 100 games; Gaels are playing #5 tempo, making 42.9% of 3’s, #1 in country. UMass lost five of last six games with four of those losses vs teams ranked #52 or higher; Minutemen play #25 tempo, but make only 28.3% from arc- they’re 3-0 vs MAAC teams, winning by 8-9-17.

These are plays according to my numbers

Oilers Under 6 1p
Panthers Under 7 & 8 If total is 5
Panthers Home 16
Preds Home 18
Preds Under 4, 7 & 8
Sharks Under 4
(YTD/MONTH/WEEK)
Home 1 (9-3/8-2/3-0)
Home 2 (16-8/4-4/0-0)
Home 5 (7-4/6-4/2-0)
Home 9 (5-1/1-1/0-0)
Home 13 (12-5/5-2/1-0)
Home 14 (2-0/0-0/0-0)
Home 15 (22-12/8-5/1-0)
Home 16 (4-2/3-2/0-0)
Home 17 (10-5/1-2/0-0)
Home 18 (27-16/16-9/1-0)

Road 1 (1-2/1-2/0-0)
Road 2 (0-3/0-3/0-0)
Road 2 (3-1/0-0/0-0)
Road 3 (0-0/0-0/0-0)
Road 4 (1-1/1-0/0-0)
Road 5 (29-19/8-10/0-3)
Road 9 (5-3/2-1/0-)
Road 10 (19-14/9-11/0-0)
Road 11 (9-5/6-4/0-0)
Road 12 (41-31/13-20/0-3)
Road 13 (0-0/0-0/0-0)

Under Test 2  (1-0/0-0/0-0)
Under Test 4 (23-20/12-11/1-2)
Under Test 5 (5-4/4-4/0-0)
Under Test 6 (16-5/9-3/0-0)
Under 7 1st Period Play (21-16/9-12/0-1)
Under 8 1st Period Play (11-14/3-7/0-1)
Road Test 1 (1-0/0-0/0-0)
Road Test 4 (1-0/0-0/0-0)