Orange Bowl, Miami 12/31
Georgia Tech lost four of last five bowls, scoring 17.2 ppg; extra time to prep helps against one-dimensional option attack. Tech lost this game to Iowa 24-14 (-6) five years ago. Johnson is 3-7 in bowl games. Miss State was #1 in country as late as mid-November; they lost two of last three games overall after 9-0 start. State won four of last five bowls (Mullen won three of four bowls); they’re 3-1 in games with single digit spread. Tech is 7-2 in such games. Jackets covered last six games, scored 30+ in six of last seven games. Think grass field helps Miss State, slower track, less precise. Underdogs are 3-2 in last five Orange Bowls.
Fiesta Bowl, Glendale AZ 12/31
Arizona is 6-1 this season in games decided by 7 or less points, they’re 4-4 in games with single digit spread. RichRod is 4-4 in bowls, but 2-0 with Arizona, winning 49-48/42-19 last two years. Boise State scored an average of 47.8 ppg in winning last eight games after loss at Air Force in October had them at 3-2; they’re 4-0 in games with a single digit spread, also won four of last five bowls, losing to Oregon St. LY. Boise State beat TCU 17-10 (+7) in this game five years ago, also had their famous upset of Oklahoma here eight years ago. Dogs are 3-2 vs spread in Fiesta Bowl last five years, with three of last four going over total.
Peach Bowl, Atlanta 12/31
TCU thinks they got hosed out of 4-team playoff; they’re right, but as far as this game goes, will Horned Frogs come to play? Its only question in this game that matters. SEC opponent figures to motivate them, no? Ole Miss won/covered its last five bowl games, allowing 10.3 ppg in last three; TCU is 3-2 in last five bowls (0-5 vs spread), scoring only 19 ppg, with all five decided by 7 or less points. Ole Miss lost three of last five games after a 7-0 start; this is consolation prize. Underdogs covered three of last four Peach Bowls; SEC teams lost three of last four visits here; they’re 4-1 in bowls so far this month, 22-8 in last 30 overall.