NHL Awards Analysis by Olivier Lavallee
First odds are courtesy of SIA, 2nd from bodog. Do consider that playoffs are not accounted in any ways to these awards.
Jack Adams(Awarded to the NHL coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team’s success):
Candidates: Paul Maclean -450;-250, Joel Quenneville +375;+350, Bruce Boudreau +800;+500.
Previous winner: Ken Hitchcock over Maclean and Tortorella
Last year, Hitchcock’s team ended with 109 points, equal to Torts and better than Maclean’s 92 points and he won it with his team’s +45 goal differential, which was higher than two others. While everyone is buzzing around the fact that Michel Therrien didn’t receive a nomination after coming back in the NHL with a stellar year taking a team from 15th in the east to 2nd, Maclean is a huge favorite to win it taking a team from 8th to 7th. But yes, he did it without the help of Spezza and Karlsson and many injuries during the whole season. Quenneville helped his team coming from 6th in the west to 1st in the league with a record breaking season while Boudreau took a 13th team in the west to bring them to 2nd in the league. Quenneville’s Hawks took 77 points out of a possibility of 96 after their record-esque season start, ahead of Boudreau’s 66 and Maclean’s 56. Hawks’ insane differential number of +53(in only 48 games) is also ahead of Ducks’ +22 and Sens +12. Some might say Quenneville’s impact wasn’t that big because his team is just so good and wasn’t hit by major injuries, but he still had to manage some new emerging players like Bickell, Bolland, Saad, Shaw and Crawford. Boudreau’s impact, I believe, was as big as Macleans. This team had talent, but they had a similar team last year and didn’t do anything. His system changed them a lot. I do believe there is a good chance Boudreau or Quenneville have a decent chance of winning this one, so I’ll take both at +800 and +375 respectively for 1x each.
Norris(Awarded to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position):
Candidates: P.K. Subban +110;-130, Ryan Suter +140;+225, Kris Letang +300;+325.
Previous winner: Erik Karlsson over Chara and Weber.
Karlsson ended last year with a stellar 78 points through 82 games with a +16 differential, ahead of Chara’s 52 points in 79 games and +33 and Weber’s 49 points and +21 in 78 games. I believe the incredible offensive totals of Karlsson added to the fact he wasn’t playing for the most offensive team of all last year forced the voters to take him over 2 others. This year, Kris Letang ended with 38 points and +16 in 35 games, in a very offensive team. Subban ended with 38 points in 42 and a +12 differential in a decent offense. On his side, Suter had a 32 points season in 42 games and a +2 with a bad offense. Suter is 7 points ahead of his team differential, Letang is 30 down and Subban is 11 down. Very Hard to pick a winner here since numbers are tight and they all are in different situations. Letang’s numbers are insane if you project that on an 82 game season, but are they enough to pull him ahead? I also believe that if you look at Suter’s number, those are not very Norris-esque, and I believe it has an impact on voters. So I’ll take Subban at +110 and Letang at +325 for 1x each.
Selke(Awarded to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game):
Candidates: Jonathan Toews -175;-105, Patrice Bergeron +185;+110, Pavel Dastyuk +550;+900.
Previous Winner: Patrice Bergeron over Backes and Datsyuk.
This is a very repetitive award, in which Datsyuk and Bergeron are very frequently nominated. Last year, Bergeron won it with an insane +36 and he also posted a very good +24 this year. He won it over Datsyuk that had a +21(which number he repeated this year) and Backes +15. Toews posted the nominees best +28 this year. This award is very hard to predict every single year, but once again, numbers count a lot to voters, so I’ll take Toews over the two accustomed to at -105 for 2x.
Vezina(Awarded to the league’s top goaltender) :
Candidates: Sergei Bobrovsky -300;-300, Antti Niemi +350;+275, Henrik Lundqvist +500;+1000.
Previous winner: Henrik Lundqvist over Quick and Rinne.
Lundqvist had an insane year last one, posting a 1.97 GAA, 0.929 Pct, 8 shutouts and a 39-18-5 record. He won it vs Quick’s similar numbers of 1.95, 0.928, 10 SO and a 35-21-13 record and Rinne’s 2.39, 0.922, 5 SO and an impressive 43-18-8 sheet. This year, Hank had 24 wins, 16 losses and 3 OT losses with a 2.05 GAA, 0.926 Pct and 2 shutouts. BOB’s incredible year ended at 2.00 GAA, 0.932 Pct with 4 Shutouts and a 21-11-6 record in a mostly star-less team. Niemi posted a 2.16, 0.924, 4 SO and 24-12-6 record. This line is right in my opinion, Bobrovsky has incredible stats and he had some highlight save all season long, keeping his team in the playoff race. You can’t rely to making playoffs or not, in my opinion, because he was clearly the league’s top goaltender this year. I’ll take -300 2x.
Hart(Awarded to the league’s most valuable player):
Candidates: Sidney Crosby -220;-175, Alex Ovechkin +350;+225, John Tavares +350;+500.
Previous winner: Evgeni Malkin over Lundqvist and Stamkos.
Geno won it last year by taking over when Crosby injured, with a great 109 points in 75 games and a +18 goal differential. Had 144 of 149 votes, which is kind of high. Lundqvist’s stellar year wasn’t enough to give him the win, nor was Stamkos’ 97 points in 82 games and +7 differential. This year, Sid the Kid gave the pens a 56 points season over only 36 games(This is 127 points on an 82 game season scale, which is 0.14 points ahead of his career-to-date per game point of 1.41) with a +26 goal differential despite fighting injuries. He was in a star-packed team though. During this time, Tavares had 47 points in 48 points and a -2 goal differential in a bad team, which needed him every game to get a chance to win. The Islanders had a 4-12-5 record in games in which he didn’t record a single point. Were 20-5-2 when he does. Ovie’s 2013 stats 56 points in 48 games also are very good. Caps and Ovie started the season on a very bad note. Suddenly, when Ovie took over and started getting points, the Caps started streaking and winning games to close out on a big run and end up 3rd in the east. He had 10 points in first 16 games, ended with 46 in last 32 games. His team started 5-10-1 in that 16 game start and ended 22-8-2. I believe there is a good case for every single of these players, and it could go either way. I can’t take a side on this one.
Calder(Awarded to the league’s most outstanding rookie player):
Candidates: Jonathan Huberdeau -200;-110, Brendan Gallagher +150;+100, Brandon Saad +1200;+1000.
Previous winner: Gabriel Landeskog over Henrique and Nugent Hopkins
I don’t have an exact stat on how many times in last 10 years that the first rookie scorer won this award, but I think last time I checked it was 9 out of 10 or around this, and when it does not win, it is because a defenceman won it. Landeskog won it last year with 52 points in 82 games and a +20. He participated in 25% of his team’s offence that year. He won it over Henrique(51 points in 74 games, +8 and 22.3% of his team’s offence) and Nuge(52 points in 62 games and -2 differential for 24.5% of his team’s offence). Goal differential and team mostly had the impact in this one because Nuge had same number in way less games, but Landeskog also showed more impact for his team and looked more in another class than Nuge. This year, Huberdeau had 31 points in 48 games and a -15 differential in a very bad team, could say AHL caliber. He was part of 27.6% of his team production and had some highlights moments and showed a lot of great stuff, more than other two. Gallagher had an impressive year and disturbed many players with his aggressiveness and his 28 points in 44 games, +10 is decent for a rookie. It was only for 18.9% of his team production though. Saad had 27 points in 46 games and a +17 goal differential. Only good for 17.4% of his team production. Team’s differential difference is -13 for Gallagher, -36 for Saad and +44 for Huberdeau. I don’t believe there is even a challenge for Huby in this one since he was a lone Ranger and had a better year than two others. Also the fact that first scorer is most of the time the winner is to consider. Ice time isn’t a factor neither, since both Saad and Huby were playing around 16 minutes/game and Gallagher played around 14 with half of the time with the best Habs line. I also believe Yakupov should have been nominated instead of Saad but that just makes it easier to pick. You can easily lock(99.9% chance of winning if you prefer) profit if you can access both sites by playing Huby -110 and Saad +150 but I have high confidence that Huby wins it, so -110 3x it is.
Adams: Boudreau 1x to win 8x, Quenneville 1x to win 3.75x
Norris: Subban 1x to win 1.10x, Letang 1x to win 3.25x
Selke: Toews 2x to win 1.90x
Vezina: Bobrovsky 2x to win 0.66x
Calder: Huberdeau 3x to win 2.70