Broncos (8-4) @ Titans (6-6)— Denver is 7-1 in non-division games this year, with only loss in Week 5 to Atlanta; Broncos are 4-2 on road, 2-1 as road underdogs- they’re 5-29 (17.2%) on 3rd down in two games Lynch started, 57-137 (41.7%) in Siemian starts. Titans won three of last four home games, scoring 34.3 pts/game; they’re +6 in turnovers in last three games, with zero giveaways. Denver won five of last six series games in ’13; this is their first visit here in five years. Tennessee is 1-5 in last six post-bye games; they were an underdog in only two of those six games. AFC West non-divisional road teams are 15-3 vs spread, 9-3 as underdogs. AFC South home teams are 7-10, 5-4 as favorites. Four of last five Bronco road games stayed under total; eight of last nine Tennessee games went over.
Chargers (5-7) @ Panthers (4-8)— Carolina lost three of last four games, is out of playoff race after dismal 40-7 loss in Seattle where QB Newton was benched for first series- sounds like they’ve got internal issues. Visitor won four of last five series games; Carolina is 4-1 in last five games vs San Diego- teams split two meetings here. Chargers are 5-1 vs spread this year in game following a loss; they’re 2-4 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs, with wins at Atlanta and Houston (both domes). Carolina is 3-3 at home, 2-4 as a home favorite. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-9 vs spread; AFC West road underdogs are 9-3. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Charger games, 1-4 in Carolina’s last five home games. Philip Rivers started 52 games at NC State; this is first time he’s played in Charlotte since 2004.
Texans (6-6) @ Colts (6-6)— Short week for Indy after easy win Monday night in New Jersey. Colts are 1-3-1 vs spread this year in game following a win. Houston lost its last three games by 7-8-8 points, scoring 15.3 pts/game; they’re 1-5 on road, 1-4 as road underdogs, losing away games by 27-18-18-7-8 points, with win at Jacksonville- this is their 4th road game in last five weeks. Colts are 3-3 at home, 3-1 as home favorites. Texans won first meeting 26-23 in OT in Week 6, game they trailed 13-3 at half- Houston is 6-23 vs Indy, 2-6 in last eight meetings. Texans are are 1-13 in Indy, losing 16-10 here LY. Home favorites are 3-2 vs spread in AFC South divisional games. Under is 4-2 in last six Houston games, 3-0 in Colts’ last three home games.
Bengals (4-7-1) @ Browns (0-12)— Robert Griffin III is expected back at QB for Browns, who had last week off; Cleveland is 1-4-1 vs spread as a home underdog, losing home games by 5-20-3-25-15-14 points- they’re 6-5 vs spread in last 11 post-bye games. Bengals snapped 1-5-1 skid with rout of Eagles last week; they’re 1-5 in true road games, with only win 23-22 in Week 1 at the Jets. Cincy is 3-5 as a favorite this season; they won first meeting with Browns 31-17 (-9.5) in Week 7, running ball for 271 yards; total yardage was 559-352. Bengals won last four series games by average score of 32-8; they won last two visits here, 30-0/37-3. Favorites are 6-1 vs spread in AFC North games this year, 1-1 on road. Under is 3-1 in Bengals’ last four games, 4-0 in Cleveland’s last four.
Steelers (7-5) @ Bills (6-6)— Going to be a mixed crowd in Orchard Park for pivotal game in AFC playoff race. Pittsburgh won last five series games and nine of last ten, holding Buffalo to 11.2 pts/game in last five. Steelers won their last three visits here- their last loss in Buffalo was in ’99. Bills are 3-2 at home, 1-1 as home underdogs; they ran ball for 182.7 yds/game in three games since their bye, but they allowed 28+ points in four of last six games, have zero takeaways in last two games. Steelers won/covered last three games, allowing 10 pts/game; they’re 3-3 SU/ATS on road and were favored in all six games. AFC North non-divisional road teams are 5-10 vs spread, 3-4 in favored. AFC East home teams are 8-8, 4-3 as an underdog. Over is 9-2 in last 11 Buffalo games, 2-9 in Steelers’ last 11.
Cardinals (5-6-1) @ Dolphins (7-5)— Arizona is 1-4 on road this year, giving up 32.8 pts/game in losses; their only road win is at 1-11 SF. Redbirds scored five TDs on nine drives LW; they’re 4-1-1 if they don’t turn ball over, 1-5 if they do. Miami had 6-game win streak snapped LW by Ravens; Dolphins are 5-1 at home with only loss to Titans; they’re 1-3 as home favorites and needed OT to beat 0-12 Browns at home. Arizona won last three series games after an 0-8 skid vs Miami; Cardinals are 1-4 in Miami with only win in ’04. Three of last four series games were decided by 3 or less points. NFC West non-divisional road teams are 6-11 vs spread, 4-7 as underdogs. NFC East home teams are 8-8, 4-5 as favorites. Over is 4-2 in last six Arizona games, 4-1 in last five Dolphin games.
Bears (3-9) @ Lions (8-4)— Lions have a 2-game lead in NFC North; why does that make me nervous about them? Chicago (+3.5) upset Detroit 17-14 at home in Week 4, outgaining Lions 408-263; Detroit’s only TD came on a punt return. Bears’ win snapped 6-game series skid vs Lions, with last three series losses all by 6 or less points; Chicago lost its last three visits here, by 8-17-3 points. Bears are 0-6 on road this season, 1-4 as a road underdog, with losses on foreign soil by 9-14-6-16-26-6 points. Last week was first time this year; Detroit didn’t trail in 4th quarter. Lions won/covered last four games, are 5-1 at home, 3-2 as home favorite, winning by 1-3-3-7-3 points at home. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 17-17-1 vs spread. Under is 6-0 in Lions’ last six games, 5-2 in Chicago’s last seven.
Vikings (6-6) @ Jaguars (2-10)— Coach Zimmer is back at practice this week, with patch over his eye; Minnesota lost six of last seven games after a 5-0 start- they lost last two games by a combined five points. Vikings lost their last four road games. Jax lost its last seven games (2-5 vs spread); they’re 0-5 at home, 0-4 vs spread in last four, with losses by 4-2-17-3-10 points. Jaguars are -16 in turnovers (2-18) in their last eight games- they’ve allowed four TD’s on offense/special teams in last four games. Vikings won four of five series games, winning 26-23 in OT in last meeting four years ago. Minnesota won its only visit here 30-12 in ’08. NFC North non divisional road teams are 8-10 vs spread, 1-4 as favorites. AFC South home teams are 7-10, 2-6 as underdogs. Under is 9-3 in Minnesota road games, 3-2 in Jags’ last five games.
Saints (5-7) @ Buccaneers (7-5)— New Orleans is 6-0 vs spread as an underdog this year, 4-0 on road. New Orleans is 0-5 when it scores less than 25 points. Tampa Bay has won four straight road games for first time ever, but they’re 2-4 at home. Bucs won/covered last four games overall, allowing only 14.3 pts/game the last three weeks. Tampa is 7-5 despite being favored in only two games (1-1) this season. Saints lost three of last four games, are 2-3 on road, with four of five games decided by 6 or less points. NO won eight of last nine series games, with last four decided by 7 or less points; Saints won last four visits here, by 7-2-3-7 points. Underdogs covered five of six NFC South divisional games this season. Under is 5-2 in Saints’ last seven games, 2-0-1 in Bucs’ last three.
Redskins (6-5-1) @ Eagles (5-7)— Washington won last four meetings with Philly, with average total in last five series games, 54.8; Redskins won first meeting this year 27-20 (+3) in Week 6, with only Eagle TDs scored by defense/special teams. Skins outgained Philly 493-239, ran ball for 230 yards- they’re 6-5 in last 11 visits here. Eagles lost seven of last nine games after a 3-0 start; Philly is 4-1 at home, with only loss to Packers two weeks ago- their last game with a positive turnover ratio was in Week 6. Washington allowed 31-31 points in losing its last couple games; they lost last three road games, by 3-5-8 points. Opponents are 21-39 on third down vs Washington the last three weeks. Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Over is 10-2 in Washington games, 0-5 in Eagle home games.
Jets (3-9) @ 49ers (1-11)— Imagine losing 11 games in a row and being favored in the 12th game, and favored for second week in a row? 49ers are 2-9 vs spread in last 11 games and they were underdog in 10 of those 11. SF had 5 passing yards in snow in Chicago LW; Bears had 184 in same weather, on same field. Long trip west for Jets on short week after 41-10 beating they took from Colts Monday night. Petty gets 2nd career start at QB here; he was 19-32/163 in his first start, a 9-6 home loss to Rams. Jets are 2-4 on road, 1-4 as an underdog; their wins were in Buffalo/Cleveland. Gang Green is -7 in turnovers the last four weeks. 49ers are 10-2 in this series, winning 34-0 in last meeting in ’12; Jets are 1-4 in five visits here, with one win in 1983. Under is 6-2 in last eight Jet games, 3-1 in 49ers’ last four.
Seahawks (8-3-1) @ Packers (6-6)— Home side is 10-1 in last 11 series games; Seahawks lost last six visits here, with last win in Wisconsin in 1999. Seattle was held to 3-6-20-5 points in games they didn’t win; they scored 26+ points in their wins. Hard to envision Packer defense shutting down former Badger QB Wilson. Seahawks are 2-3-1 on road, beating Jets/Patriots. Green Bay is 4-2 at home, losing to Cowboys/Colts; they won last two weeks, holding Eagles/Texans to 13 points each. Seahawks haven’t allowed a second-half point in their last two games. NFC West non-divisional road teams are 6-11 vs spread, 2-4 as favorites. NFC North home teams are 9-7, 3-1 as underdogs. Under is 4-2 in both Seattle road games and Green Bay home games.
Falcons (7-5) @ Rams (4-8)— LA is in freefall, losing seven of last eight games, with only win 9-6 against Bryce Petty-led Jets. Second home start for Goff; it rained during his first one, when Rams blew 10-0 lead over Dolphins with 5:00 left. LA is 1-3 at home, with only win 9-3 over Seahawks. Atlanta is 4-2 on road, 1-1 as road favorite; they’ve allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in last five games. Falcons allowed 24+ points in six of last seven games; curious to see if Goff can move chains against this defense. Atlanta won five of last six series games, winning last three by 4-17-7 points; average total in last three series games is 54.7. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-11 vs spread, 2-2 on road; NFC West underdogs are 4-12 vs spread, 0-5 at home. Over is 10-2 in Atlanta games, 1-4 in last five Ram games.
Cowboys (11-1) @ Giants (8-4)— Dallas won its last 11 games (9-2 vs spread) since losing to Giants 20-19 in season opener, just second loss in last seven games with New York. Cowboys won four of last six visits here; four of their last five wins against the Giants were by 5 or less points- average total in last eight series games is 51.8. Cowboys are 6-0 on road on road with three wins by 5 or less points- they’ve got only one takeaway in last five games (-2). Giants had 6-game win streak snapped LW; New York is 5-1 at home, with only loss 29-27 to Redskins. Giants are just 13-38 on third down their last three games. Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Under is 4-0 in Giants’ last four games, 4-1 in last five Dallas road games.
Ravens (7-5) @ Patriots (10-2)— Baltimore is 4-1 since its bye week, allowing 13.6 pts/game, but the four wins were all at home; Ravens are 2-3 on road with wins at Browns/Jaguars- their road losses are by 4-8-10 points. Baltimore is only 7-5 but they’re tied for first in AFC North and is 4-0 in its divisional games. Patriots are 7-1 with Brady at QB; six of the seven wins are by 11+ points- they’re 3-2 as home favorites this year. New England is 9-3 in last 12 series games, 7-1 in regular season games (2-2 in playoff meetings); Ravens lost seven of last nine visits here. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 2-10 vs spread, 2-6 on road. AFC East favorites are 8-5, 4-5 at home. Under is 5-1 in Ravens’ last six games, 3-0 in last three Patriot games.