NFL Betting Trends & Systems

Giants (0-5) @ Bears (3-2)—Winless Big Blue off to horrific start, with banged-up OL main reason behind -13 turnover ratio; in their three games outside awful NFC East (2-3 is first place), Giants were outscored 73-14 in second half, losing by 18-38-24 points- they allowed 31+ points in all five games (36.4 ppg/game). Throw in travel and short work week, this is tough spot for them. Chicago allowed 40-26 points in losing last two games after 3-0 start; Bears are 0-2-1 as home favorites this year (12-21-2 in last 35) with home wins this year by 1-3 points, plus loss to unbeaten Saints. Giants are 0-2 as road dogs this year after being 7-3 last two years; they’re averaging only 57 rushing yards/game, but have won four of last five visits to Windy City, but those were in happier times. NFC East teams are 4-9 vs spread outside the division, 2-5 on road, 2-4 as underdogs. NFC North teams are 3-5-1 outside the division. Four of five Chicago games went over the total. Raiders (2-3) @ Chiefs (5-0)—Oakland is 8-3 in last 11 games of this ancient rivalry, with average total in last four, 28.5; Raiders won last six visits to Arrowhead, with three wins by 3 points and other three by 10+- they won 26-16/15-0 in LY’s meetings, but this is new KC team, with a +10 turnover ratio (15-5)- they have yet to allow more than 17 points in any game. Chiefs are 1-1 as home favorites this year (won 17-16/31-7 at home), 4-15-1 since ’07. Oakland is banged-up at RB; after running ball for 171-221 yards in first two games, they’ve averaged 85.7 last three games. Pryor was 18-23/221 passing last week, a big improvement. Since ’08, Raiders are 23-15 as road dog; since ’06, they’re 18-4 as a divisional road underdog. Oakland is +5 in turnovers in last four games, with only three giveaways, and two of those were in game Flynn (since cut) started. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites of 5+ points are 5-3 vs spread this year. Eagles (2-3) @ Buccaneers (1-3)—Glennon gets second start for Tampa, first since Freeman got cut; he was 24-43/173 in first start, a 13-10 home loss to Arizona that Bucs led 10-0 at half. Tampa hasn’t scored second half point in last two games, has been outscored 31-10 in second half so far this year- they have won four of last five post-bye games (1-0 under Schiano). Foles gets first ’13 first start with Vick (hamstring) out; he started last six games LY, with only win 23-21 here at Tampa in Week 15, going 32-51/381, two TDs, no INTs, not bad. Foles was xx-xx/xxx in second half in Swamp last week—Eagles won both division games but are 0-3 outside NFC East, losing by 3-10-32 points. NFC East teams are 2-5 as non-divisional favorites this year; NFC South non-divisional home teams are 4-3. Four of five Eagle games went over total; all four Tampa games stayed under. NFL-wide, non-divisional home underdogs of 5 or less points are 10-6 vs spread. Packers (2-2) @ Ravens (3-2)—Absence of Pack’s star LB Matthews (thumb) for month should make Green Bay games higher scoring for next few weeks. GB allowed 34 points in losing both its road games, at SF/Cincy, losing to Bengals when they had four of their five takeaways this season. Pack is 17-8 vs spread in last 25 games vs AFC teams; Ravens are 12-7-1 vs NFC teams in Harbaugh era. Ravens are 2-0 at home, allowing 6-9 points (no offensive TDs on 22 drives), allowing three FGs on three red zone drives at home; after running ball for 64 ypg in 2-2 start, they ran it 40 times for 133 yards in narrow win at Miami last week. In its last four games, Baltimore outscored opponents 60-13 in second half, after trailing three of those four games at halftime. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-4 vs spread. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 4-2-1. Non-divisional home underdogs of 4 or less points are 9-6 vs spread. Lions (3-2) @ Browns (3-2)—So far this season, teams that played on Thursday are 7-1 SU/ATS in next game, as extra rest/prep time obviously helps. Cleveland won all three Hoyer starts, but now he is out for year (ACL) and they’re back to original starter Weeden; Browns averaged 4.1/4.6 per pass attempt in first two games, were at 5.3 or better in Hoyer’s three starts. Over last 10+ years, Detroit is 2-7-2 as a road favorite; they’re 1-2 on road this year, with only win 27-20 at Washington when they threw ball for 378 yards. Question for Lions is health of star WR Johnson; with him late scratch last week, Detroit was outgained 449-286 and scored only one garbage time TD, averaging 4.9 yards/pass attempt, after averaging 7.6 during their 3-1 start (8.8 in Redskin game). Browns’ defense held last three opponents to 4.6 or less yards/pass attempt, but Ponder/Manuel were two of three opposing QBs- they’ll be challenged to match that is Johnson is healthy here. Panthers (1-3) @ Vikings (1-3)—Tough spot for Viking QB Cassel here, with newly acquired Freeman looming over shoulder, ready to challenge for starting job. Frazier is 0-3 in post-bye games as Viking coach, losing 29-20/45-7/28-10; Minnesota is 3-6-1 as home favorite in Frazier era, losing only home game this year in last minute to Cleveland in what was Hoyer’s first start for Browns (TY 328-409). Vikings should get FB Felton (suspension) back here, which should help open more holes for Peterson, after they ran ball for “only” 127 ypg in 1-3 start. Carolina has outscored foes 37-9 in first half, not allowing a TD, but they’re still just 1-3, outscored 49-16 in second half of their three losses (only win is vs 0-5 Giants). Vikings are 6-4 in this series; Panthers lost five of seven visits here, but haven’t been here since ’08. NFC south non-divisional road teams are 1-5 vs spread. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-4-1...

Chiefs (2-0) @ Eagles (1-1)—Reid coached Philly for the last 14 years, was fired LY, now he returns home at 2-0 for just second time as a HC.. Eagles on short week for second week in row; Monn-Sun-Thurs start is tough scheduling spot, though last two games were at Linc. KC won its first two games without turning ball over (+4) and allowing just 108 yards on 39 rushes. Philly defense allowed 53 points in its last six quarters; Chargers were 10-15 on 3rd down last week and gained 539 yards. Eagles are now 6-13 vs spread in last 19 games as home favorite, 6-11 in last 17 vs AFC teams- they won last three series games, by 13-6-20 points, but AFC West teams are 7-1 vs spread in non-divisional games thru first two weeks of season. Chiefs were 2-6 as road dogs LY, after being 21-13 the five years before that. Weird doing trends for this game, since all the Eagle trends actually refer to the Chiefs’ new coach. Chargers (1-1) @ Titans (1-1)—Second straight trip east for Bolts, who split pair of 3-point decisions as underdogs in first two games, despite allowing 30+ points in both games- they’ve won nine in a row vs Tennessee, waxing Titans 38-10 in Week 2 LY at Qualcomm (TY 418-212). Chargers are 17-29 on 3rd down thru two games, with WR Royal scoring five TDs already. After facing prolific passers Schaub/Vick, Locker is going to be change of pace; in splitting pair of road games (lost in OT at Houston last week), Titans gained only 229-248 yards, but have seven sacks (+2 and four takeaways (+4), while running ball for 115.5 yards/game, with no giveaways. Tennessee is 4-5 as home favorite under Munchak, 3-5 as a favorite in home openers. Bolts are now 7-2 vs spread in last nine tries as a road dog. Home favorites in non-divisional games are 5-6-1 vs spread thru first two weeks of season. Browns (0-2) @ Vikings (1-1)—Cleveland QB Weeden (thumb) likely out here; journeyman Campbell likely replacement- he’s at least as good as Weeden; in their first two games, Browns averaged less than five yards/pass attempt and ran ball for total of just 112 yards on 33 carries- they’re 2-5-1 in last eight games as road dog after shutting Ravens out in first half last week, but losing 14-6 (+6.5) in Maryland. Minnesota is 2-3 in last five home openers, 0-5 vs spread (0-4 as favorite); they scored TD on both defense/special teams last week, still lost 31-30 after kicking FG on all three trips to red zone. Vikes turned ball over seven times (-1) in two games, had 15-yard deficit in field position both games- they’re 3-5-1 as home favorites under Frazier, are 11-20-1 vs spread vs AFC teams the last eight years. Browns were outscored 31-3 in second half of their first two games. Buccaneers (0-2) @ Patriots (2-0)—Curious to see Pats’ passing game 10 days after dismal showing vs Jets; their two wins are by total of five points, with NE averaging just 5.1/4.5 yards/pass attempt. Edelman caught 13 passes last week for 78 yards, not exactly Jerry Rice, but Brady was 6-21 targeting anyone else. Bucs’ two losses are by total of three points, both in last 0:10- they’ve had 23 penalties for 220 yards in two games and S Goldson is suspended for this game. Since ’09, Tampa is 18-11-1 as road dogs, 5-2 under Schiano. NE is 5-2 in this series, winning last two meetings 28-0/35-7; Bucs lost two of three visits here, but haven’t visited since ’05- they completed less than half their passes in both games so far this year, as rumors circulate that QB Freeman will walk after this year. These teams practiced against each other summer for few days before their (meaningless) exhibition game, so there is some...

Week 2  Jets (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0)– First road start for QB Smith who did alright in his NFL debut (24-39/214); Jets are 5-17 in last 22 series games, losing four of last five visits here, losing by 17-42-9-3 points. Pats won 10 of last 11 home openers (3-4 vs spread as favorte); since ’05, they’re 10-14 vs spread as home favorite in divisional games- since ’08, they’re 6-12 as double digit favorites. Jets are 8-5 SU in last 13 road openers, covering four of last five as dog in road openers- they’re 11-4 as divisional road dog since ’06, but just 4-4 under Ryan. Patriots are now +71 in turnovers in last 49 regular season games. Jets’ only TD drive last week was short 31-yarder. NE outgained Bills 431-286, converted 11-20 on 3rd down, but Amendola (groin) isn’t expected to play. Last 14 years, over is 10-4 in NE’s home openers; under is 9-5 in Jets’ last 14 road openers. Chargers (0-1) @ Eagles (1-0)—Both teams played Monday, but Chargers blew 28-7 lead and lost at home; Iggles are off road divisional win at Washington, when they ran ball for 263 yards and had 53 offensive plays, just in first half. San Diego ran 51 plays in the whole game Monday. Since ’08, Chargers are 12-8-1 as road dogs; they’ve lost three of four visits here, losing by 16-10-3, with only win in ’95, as home teams won eight of last nine series games. Philly defense forced five 3/outs vs offense with rusty QB who hadn’t played in preseason, which helped them get a 19-yard advantage in average field position, a huge edge. Eagles are 6-12 as home favorites last three years, 1-6 as non-divisional HF last two years- they were 0-8 vs spread at home LY, when it was obvious Reid wasn’t coming back as HC. Eagles covered once in last five games as a favorite in their home opener. Browns (0-1) @ Ravens (0-1)—Baltimore won last ten series games, with seven of 10 wins by 10+ points; Browns are 3-11 here, losing last five, with three of those five by 7 or less points. Ravens had three extra days to prepare after giving up 445 passing yards and seven TDs in Thursday night opener; they’ve won last eight home openers (6-2 vs spread), with over 6-1-1 in those eight games. Over is 9-3 in Browns’ last 12 road openers. Baltimore is 4-9-1 as divisional home favorite under Harbaugh, who is replacing defensive leaders Lewis/Reed off LY’s Super Bowl champs. Browns threw 53 passes last week, ran it only 13 times in 23-10 loss where they outgained Miami; would expect both sides to try and run more here, since Flacco threw 63 passes last week. Since ’07, Cleveland is 9-6-1 as a divisional road dog. Over last decade, teams that lost Thursday night opener are xx-xx in their Week 2 games. Titans (1-0) @ Texans (1-0)—Houston rallied from down 28-7 to win at San Diego late Monday night, using no-huddle offense and defensive TD by Cushing to forge unlikely comeback; Texans won six of last eight series games, winning 38-24/24-10 LY, just their second series sweep in last 11 years. Titans are 2-3 in last five visits to their old home (Titans used to be Houston Oilers); five of their last seven visits here were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. Texans won last three home openers by 10-27-20 points; six of their last eight home openers stayed under total. Titans held Pitt to 32 yards rushing, forced five 3/outs on ten drives last week and had whopping 21-yard edge in average field position- they’re 7-6 as a road dog under Munchak. Look for Texans to get Foster more involved in running game; Tate played lot down stretch Monday. Houston is 6-1 as divisional home favorite last three years. Dolphins (1-0) @ Colts (1-0)— Indy was outgained by 98 yards last week- they had trouble with mobile QB Pryor, who had most of Oakland’s 171 rushing yards, but Dolphins don’t have QB like Pryor. Last week was Miami’s first cover in last five road games; they ran ball for only 20 yards, but  since 2004, Dolphins are 28-12-2 as non-divisional road dogs. Indy won last four series games, but all four were decided by six or less points. Dolphins lost last two visits here 27-22/23-20; LY, they beat Miami 23-20 (+1.5), with 419 passing yards, outgaining Fish by 151 yards. Colts covered eight of last 11 home games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites with Luck at QB. Miami was very good on third down last week, converting 8-16 chances, holding Browns to 1-14, but they had only one play of 20+ yards- league average was 3.97 per team. Dolphins were +2 in turnovers last week, good news after being -36 over last four years.    Panthers (0-1) @ Bills (0-1)—Since 2007, Carolina is surprisingly good 7-2 as road favorite; they’re 5-3 vs spread vs AFC teams under Rivera. Buffalo covered four of last six games as home dog; in last eight years, they’re 11-18-3 in last 32 games vs NFC teams. Panthers outrushed Seattle 124-70 last week, but had only 119 passing yards and one play of 20+ yards- Newton lost road opener by 7-6 points in his first two NFL seasons. Buffalo was outgained 431-286 by Patriots, had ten penalties for 75 yards, which led to Pats having 8-yard advantage in average field position- NE converted 11-20 on 3rd down- their only two TD drives were just 16-32 yards. Bills won four of five series games, winning two of three played here- Carolina last visited here in ’05. Panthers lost last four road openers (0-4 vs spread), losing by average score of 26-17. Rams (1-0) @ Falcons (0-1)—Steven Jackson faces his old teammates in his Atlanta home opener; Falcons are 21-11-1 as home favorites under Smith, 13-4 in last 17 as non-divisional HF. Atlanta lost 23-17 in Superdome last week, as last drive ended...

Look Aheads Raiders (Broncos On Deck) Texans (SB CHamps On Deck) Buffalo (Jets On Deck) Letdown Spots Rams (Div Win over Cards) Cowboys (Div Win Over Giants) Eagles (Div Win Over Redskins) Texans (Come from behind late rally) Broncos (Win Over SB CHamps) Saints (Div win Over...

Week 1 Ravens @ Broncos—Baltimore hit 70-yard TD pass in last minute to force OT and stun Broncos here in LY’s playoffs, but Lewis/Reed/Boldin/Pitta are all gone, and Denver (12-1 in last 13 home openers, 9-4 vs spread) has revenge motive for season opener. Broncos will miss suspended LB Miller; they were 6-1 vs spread as HFs LY, after being 5-24-2 from ‘06-’11; addition of Welker at WR should make their offense even better. Ravens covered five of last seven road openers, are 11-6 as regular season road dogs under Harbaugh, which doesn’t include three road covers in LY’s playoffs. First time in decade Super Bowl champs open on road; ’03 Bucs won 17-0 at Philly in similar scenario decade ago. Last ten SB champs are 6-2-2 vs spread in season opener the next year. Patriots @ Bills—New England is 23-2 in last 25 series games, 8-1 in last nine visits here, with seven of eight wins by 13+ points, but 36-year old Brady is without his top five receivers from LY, so hard to say how their passing attack will fare. Since ’04, NE is 33-20-1 as AF; they’re 17-6-2 in last 25 games as a divisional AF, 5-2 in last seven road openers, 6-3 as favorite in road openers. New coach, new QB for Buffalo, looks like rookie QB Manuel will get nod over undrafted FA Tuel. Bills are 3-9-1 in last 13 games as an AFC East home dog, 5-9-1 overall as home dog since 2008. Bills covered four of last five home openers, with four of those five games going over total. Average total in last four series games is 70.8. Over last three seasons, Patriots are +70 in turnovers, Buffalo -31. Titans @ Steelers—Pittsburgh won its last ten home openers, going 8-2 vs spread, 7-2 as favorites; their last four home openers stayed under total, as have 13 of Titans’ last 16 road openers. Pitt won three of last four games vs Titans, winning by 3-8-21 points. Tennessee lost four of last five visits here, with three of last four losses by 21+ points- they’re 6-6 as road dogs under Munchak, 5-4 in non-divisional games. Since ’06, Titans are 28-19-1 as single digit dogs. Steelers are -23 in turnovers last two years, after being +31 from ’04-’10; they’re going to try and run ball more, to take heat off defense/Big Ben, but OL hasn’t looked good in exhibitions. Over last three years, Pitt is 9-6 vs spread in non-divisional home games; they’re 22-22-1 as HFs under Tomlin. Titans lost 16-14/ 38-10 in road openers under Munchak. Falcons @ Saints—Payton returns to Superdome sidelines after year suspension. Saints are 11-3 in last 14 renewals of this 46-year old rivalry; Falcons lost eight of last nine visits here, with four of eight losses by 8+ points. Saints covered five of last six NFC South home games; they’re 8-4 in last dozen games with spread of 3 or less points, but under Smith, Atlanta is 23-10-2 vs spread in low spread games. Falcons are 8-5 vs spread in last 13 tries as road dog, but just 2-5 in last seven as a divisional road dog- they’ve lost five of last six road openers, with seven of their last nine going under total; Payton is 3-0-1 in last four tries as favorite in HO. 11 of Saints’ last 16 Superdome openers also stayed under, but nine of last 11 series totals were 48+. Buccaneers @ Jets— Revis returns to old home with former Rutgers coach Schiano; Tampa Bay is 26-47 SU on road since ’04, 6-11-1 vs spread in last 18 games as road favorite. Bucs lost five of last seven road openers, with four of last five going over total. Rex is 3-1 in home openers here; they were 4-13 in last 17 HOs before he became coach. Jets won nine of ten games vs Bucs, winning all six played here, with four of six wins by 15+ points. Jets are 3-2 as home dogs under Ryan, but 8-16 vs spread in last 24 games vs NFC foes. Gang Green is 15-10 under Ryan in games with spread of 3 or less points, 10-7 at home. Not sure how much home field edge Gang Green has if they get off to rough start; two new coordinators, HC with reduced influence, major QB dilemma– beginning to look like it’ll be Geno Smith at QB, backed up by Matt Simms. . Chiefs @ Jaguars—Two teams breaking in new coaches; Reid is only one of eight new NFL HCs this year who has been HC previously- he’s a good one, winning his last four road openers, but Chiefs are 3-6 in this series, losing four of five visits here, with only win in ’01. This is teams’ first meeting in three years. Since 2007, KC is 1-10-1 vs spread as favorite of 3 or less points- they were 0-5 LY in games with spread of 3 or less, part of reason why coaching change was made- they’re 3-8 in. Bradley was DC in Seattle; since ’07, Jags are 8-18 vs spread as dogs of 3 or less points- they’re 8-16 vs spread in last 24 games as home dog, 3-8 as non-divisional home dog. Over last five years, Chiefs are just 12-28 SU on road- they are 1-2 as road favorites since ’07, favored in only three of last 48 road tilts. Bengals @ Bears—Edge to Cincy for having same HC/QB/coordinators as LY, while Chicago brought QB guru Trestman in from CFL to mentor star signal caller Cutler. Smith was just 4th coach since 1990 to get canned after winning 10+ games that season- new systems usually take some getting used to. Cincy won four of last five series games; they won four of five visits here, are 13-4-1 vs spread in last 18 games vs NFC opponents. Bengals are 4-10 in last 14 road openers (4-5 as road dog in road openers) with five of last six going over total....

Look Aheads Seattle (49ers On Deck) Jets (NE On Deck) Chicago (Vikings On Deck) Cincinnati ( Steelers on Deck) Steelers (Cincinnati On Deck) Letdown Spots...