NFL Betting Trends & Systems

Eagles (2-3) @ Giants (1-4)— Both teams are struggling but Redskins lead NFC East at 2-2, so division is still up for grabs. Eagles lost last two games by total of five points; all six of their games were decided by 6 or fewer points. Iggles are 0-2 on road, giving up 27-26 points; under Pederson, Philly is 2-6 as road favorites. Last two games, Giants ran ball 31 times, threw 78 passes- their OL doesn’t open up holes for rookie RB Barkley. Big Blue allowed 33 points in each of last two games, losing LW on 63-yard FG at gun. Philly won seven of last eight series games; last five were all decided by 5 or fewer points; Iggles won four of last five visits here- last three were all decided by five points. Since 2013, Giants are 8-10 as home underdogs, 0-2 this...

Vikings (1-1-1) @ Rams (3-0)— Minnesota threw 55 passes, ran ball only six times in 27-6 home loss to Buffalo LW, NFL’s biggest upset since ’95. Rams lost both starting CB’s LW; Talib is out here, Peters may play. LA won its first three games, by 20-34-12 points, scoring 34 ppg (8 TD’s on 18 drives in two home wins); under McVay, they’re 5-3 vs spread as home favorites. Under Zimmer, Vikings are 12-7 as road underdogs (2-4 last 2+ years); they’ve got no takeaways in last couple games (-4 TO’s). Minnesota won last five series games, including 24-7 (-2) home win LY; Vikings won last three road series games, but last visit to St Louis was in ‘14. Rams converted 16 of 26 on third down last two weeks; they’ve outscored opponents 52-10 in second...

Jets (1-1) @ Browns (0-1-1)— Hue Jackson is 1-32-1 as coach of the Browns; they’re 0-2 as a favorite under his watch, losing to Colts/Jets as favorites LY- Browns are 0-5 vs spread under Jackson in games with spread of 3 or less points. Over last decade, Cleveland is 8-18-2 when a home favorite. Under Bowles, Jets are 5-7-3 as road underdogs, 9-11-2 in games with spread of 3 or less. Jets won last five series games, last two 31-28/17-14; they’re 3-1 vs Browns here, with only loss in 2006. Browns signed new kicker after last guy missed 2 FG’s, 2 PAT’s in Superdome LW; Cleveland is 0-1-1 despite a +6 turnover ratio. Jets outgained their first two opponents, but have turned ball over five times, scored only 13 points in six red zone...

Seahawks (0-1) @ Bears (0-1)— Chicago led 20-0 at Lambeau LW before Rodgers got off his golf cart and led epic comeback in 24-23 Packer win. Bears averaged only 4.0 yds/pass attempt, had only one TD in four trips to red zone. Seahawks were outgained 470-306 in 27-24 loss at Denver LW; they ran ball for only 64 yards, converted 2-12 on third down. Seattle is 7-5-2 vs spread in their last 14 games as road underdogs- they’re 11-6 in this series, but 0-2 in playoff meetings.  Seahawks are 6-4 in Windy City, winning last two visits, last of which was in 2012. Last three years, Bears are 1-6 as home favorites- under is 10-6 in their last 16 home games. Seattle won five of its last six Monday night games; Bears split their last...

Ravens (1-0) @ Bengals (1-0)— Cincy scored late TD in season finale LY to beat Ravens 31-27 and knock Baltimore out of playoffs; Bengals won seven of last nine series games, five of last six played here- Ravens lost 20-0 here LY. Ravens were dominant in 47-3 win in their opener, but Buffalo doesn’t have a competent QB. Bengals were outgained 380-330 in their win at Indy LW; their defense was stout in red zone (only 10 points/3 drives), and they put game away with scoop/score in last minute. Last four years, Ravens are 19-13 SU on road, 15-15-2 vs spread- they’re 7-1-1 vs spread in AFC North road games the last three years. Last five years, Bengals are 24-14-2 vs spread at home, 9-6 in divisional...

Steelers @ Browns— Since re-joining the NFL in 1999, Browns started season 0-1 18 out of 19 years; they’re 3-12 vs spread in last 15 Week 1 home games. Steelers won their last six games with Cleveland, taking last three by 3-3-4 points- they won four of last six meetings here, with three of four wins by 16+ points. Since 2015, Pitt is 14-9 vs spread as a road favorite- under is 23-7-1 in their last 31 road games. Browns are 4-15-1 vs spread in last 20 games as home underdogs; under is 12-3 in their last 15 home games. Pitt lost five of last seven road openers; they’re 2-8-1 vs spread in last 11. Steelers had a special teams TD in both series games LY. Haley is Cleveland’s new OC; he had same job for Steelers the last six years. Rain is 100% for Sunday with 20 mph winds; total was bet down from 46 to 41.  49ers @ Vikings— Minnesota’s OL coach Sparano died unexpectedly this summer; the OL also has injury issues now. Home side won 11 of last 12 series games; 49ers lost last five games in the Twin Cities, with three losses by 11+ points. Vikings are 5-2 in last seven series games; four of last five series totals were 37 or less. Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 18-5-1 as home favorites; under is 19-13 in their home games the last four years. 49ers were 5-2 as road underdogs LY in Shanahan’s first season, after being 7-13-1 from ’13-’16. Over is 15-9 in SF road games the last three years. Minnesota won/covered its last three home openers. Cousins will be Minnesota’s 11th different #1 QB the last 15 years, 4th in last four years.  Bengals @ Colts— Home side won last eight series games; Bengals lost their last eight visits here, with last visit a ’14 playoff game- their last win here was in ’97. Since 2012, Cincy is 17-12-2 as a road underdog; under is 21-11 in their last 32 road games. Colts are 12-9-1 in last 22 games as home favorites; under is 17-7 in their last 24 home games. Bengals open on road for 8th time in last nine years; over is 8-1 in their last nine road openers. Colts lost their last four home openers, three by 4 or fewer points. Indy started season 0-1 seven of last eight years- they’re 1-9 vs spread in Week 1 the last ten years. Luck’s return at QB is a huge boost for the Colts.  Bills @ Ravens— Peterman is Buffalo’s starting QB here; he was 1-1 in two starts LY, throwing five INT’s in a half in a horrific 54-24 loss to the Chargers, then beating Colts 13-7 in a December home game. Home side won last six series games; last four were all decided by 6 or fewer points. Bills lost last four visits here, by 14-12-3-6 points. Since ’12, Ravens are 16-22-1 vs spread as home favorites; under is 19-13-1 in their last 33 road games. Since ’14, Buffalo 14-9-1 as road underdogs; under is 19-13 in their road games. Ravens won 11 of last 13 home openers; under is 4-1 in last five of those. Bills made playoffs LY for first time in 19 years, but QB Taylor is gone; top draft pick Josh Allen is Peterman’s backup.  Jaguars @ Giants— Last five years, Jags are 3-17 vs spread when playing an NFC team. Home side won all six series games; Jaguars are 0-3 vs Giants here, losing by 3-7-4 points- they’re 3-6 vs Jets in Garden State, so 3-9 overall in the Swamp. This will be first time in six years Big Blue opens the season at home; Giants lost five of their last six home openers (0-6 vs spread); five of those six games stayed under. Since ’15, Big Blue is 7-4 vs spread as home underdogs; under is 10-6 in their home games the last two years. Since ’12, Jaguars are 2-3 as road favorites; over is 28-20 in their road games the last six years. Giants are one of four NFL teams (Bills, Dallas, Panthers) whose backup QB’s have zero NFL starts.  Buccaneers @ Saints— No Jameis Winston (suspended) for Bucs; Fitzpatrick (48-70-1 as NFL starter) gets the nod at QB- Tulane alum Griffin is his backup. Saints are 10-3 in last 13 series games, but last six were split. Bucs lost six of last seven visits to Big Easy, with four of six losses by 11+ points. Under Koetter, Tampa Bay is 7-6-1 as road underdogs; since 2011, over is 29-26-2 in their road games. Since ’14, NO is 10-15-1 as a home favorite; over is 21-11 in their home games last four years. Saints lost their last three home openers; they started last four seasons 0-1. Saints scored special teams TD in both meetings vs Tampa Bay LY. Last five years, Bucs are 7-13-1 vs spread on artificial turf.  Texans @ Patriots— Last 15 years, Super Bowl loser is 2-13 vs spread in their first game the following season, 2-10 when favored. Patriots are 14-2 SU in last 16 home openers, but just 1-5 vs spread in last six. Houston is 0-6 in Foxboro, with five of six losses by 13+ points; they’re 1-9 overall vs Patriots, losing last seven- they lost 36-33 here LY. Texans are 11-15-1 in last 27 games as road underdogs; under is 9-6-1 in their road games last two years. Since ’13, Patriots are 23-10-3 as home favorites; Over is 41-23 in their home games the last eight years. Texans open on road for only 2nd time in last 10 years; they won seven of last nine road openers. Under is 5-2 in their last seven season openers. Over was 5-1 in QB Watson’s six starts last year.  Titans @ Dolphins— Tennessee made playoffs LY for first time in nine years, won a playoff game, then fired the head coach; not sure why. Teams split last six meetings; Titans won two...

Browns (0-10) @ Bengals (4-6)— Cincy (-3) crushed Browns 31-7 in Cleveland in Week 4; they outgained Browns 350-215, their 6th straight series win. Browns lost last two visits to Cincy, by 31-10/31-17 scores. Cleveland is 2-8 vs spread this season, 0-3 as a road favorite, losing away games by 14-3-16-14 points.  In their last five games, Browns are 18-68 on 3rd down. In their last five games, Bengals have run 27 less plays per game than their opponents- they’ve run ball for only 54 yards per game in their last six games. Cincy is 2-2 at home, 1-3 as a home favorite- their two home wins were by total of five points. Favorites are 4-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season. Over is 3-1 in Browns’ road games, 1-3 in Bengal home games. Cleveland gets WR Gordon back from suspension, which should be a big upgrade. Bears (3-7) @ Eagles (9-1)— Eagles are on fire, winning last eight games, covering last seven; Philly is 4-1 as home favorites, with home wins by 3-27-10-23-28 points- they+8 in turnovers in their last five games. Chicago lost its last three games, by 8-7-3 points; they’re 2-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 22-21-8 points, with an OT win in Baltimore. Philly won two series games, 54-11/29-14; Bears’ last series win was in 2011- they won two of last three visits here. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; NFC North underdogs are 9-8, 4-4 on road. Over is 5-3 in last eight Eagle games, 3-2 in Chicago’s last five. Philly has 3-game lead in NFC East, so they need to guard against complacency, are going for home field edge in playoffs. Dolphins (4-6) @ Patriots (8-2)— New England also has 3-game lead in AFC East; they’ve won their last six games (5-1 vs spread), are 2-3 as home favorites, with home wins by 3-16-8 points, and losses to Chiefs/Panthers. NE has lost field position battle in only one game, and that was by a yard. Miami lost its last four games, by 40-3-24-10 points; Dolphins are 1-3 as road underdogs this year- they have only two takeaways in last four games (-3), were outscored 108-37 in first half of last six games. Patriots won four of last five games with Miami; teams play again in two weeks. Dolphins lost their last eight visits to Foxboro. Home teams are 4-0-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Under is 5-1 in Patriots’ last six games. Bills (5-5) @ Chiefs (6-4)— I’m assuming Taylor starts at QB; if Peterman starts, just bet on KC. Buffalo lost its last three games, giving up 101 points the last two weeks; Bills are -9 in turnovers in last three games, after being +14 in first seven. Buffalo is 2-2 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 6-4-13-30 points, with win in Atlanta. Chiefs lost four of last five games after a 5-0 start, still lead AFC West by couple games. KC is 3-1 as home favorites, winning by 7-9-10 points, with loss to the Steelers. Chiefs won last three series games, by 10-4-8 points; Bills’ last win here was in 2011. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-6 vs spread; AFC East road dogs are 5-5. Over is 5-3-2 in Chief games; last five Buffalo games also went over. Buccaneers (4-6) @ Falcons (6-4)— Short week for Falcons after 34-31 win out in Seattle late Monday night. Atlanta won three of last four games, is 2-2 as home favorites, losing to Buffalo/Miami, winning other two by 11-20 points. Fitzpatrick starts at QB again for Bucs, who won last two games after a 5-game skid. Tampa Bay is 1-4 on road (won @ Miami), 1-1-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 17-5-3-20 points on foreign soil. Bucs are +7 in turnovers their last three games. Tampa Bay won three of last four series games, winning 23-19/31-24 in last two visits here. Average total in last eight series games, 56.0. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 9-12-2 vs spread. Under is 3-1 in Bucs’ last four games, 6-1 in last seven Falcon games. Panthers (7-3) @ Jets (4-6)— Both teams are off their bye week; Carolina won 27-23/30-20 in its last two post-bye games, Jets lost six of last eight post-bye games. Carolina won/covered its last three games; they’re 4-1 on road, winning by 20-3-3-14 points- their only road loss was in Chicago, when Bear defense scored only two TD’s of the game. Jets lost four of their last five games; they’re last three losses were all by 5 or less points. Gang Green is 3-2 at home, losing to Patriots by 7, Falcons by 5- they’re 5-3-1 as an underdog. Teams split six meetings, with home side winning five of the six. Panthers lost both series meetings here, 48-21/17-6. NFC South non-divisional road favorites are 5-4 vs spread; AFC East underdogs are 7-7-1, 2-2-1 at home. Titans (6-4) @ Colts (3-7)— Titans (-7) ended 11-game losing skid to Colts with 36-22 home win back in Week 6; Tennessee outgained Colts 473-297, but trailed 13-9 at half. Tennessee lost its last nine visits to Indy- their last win here was in 2007. Titans won four of last five games; they are 2-3 on road, scoring 17 or less points in four of those games- they’re 3-4-1 as favorites, 1-2 on road. Indy lost four of last five games but covered last three; Colts are 2-3 at home- four of those five games were decided by exactly three points. Colts are 10-2 vs spread in last dozen post-bye games. Four of Titans’ last five games went over total; under is 3-1 in Indy’s last four games. Home teams are 1-4 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season. Seahawks (6-4) @ 49ers (1-9)— Short week for banged-up Seattle after 34-31 loss Monday night. Seahawks lost two of last three games, both by a FG- they won last three road games,...

Titans (3-3) @ Browns (0-6)— Short week for Titans after rare Monday night home game vs Colts. Tennessee scored 37-33-36 points in its wins, 16-14-10 in its losses; they’re 1-2 on road, with only win in Jacksonville. Titans are 1-3-1 in last five games as a road favorite. Winless Cleveland is 0-5 vs spread the last five weeks, 1-2 as home underdogs, losing by 3-3-16 points- they allowed 31+ points in 3 of last 4 games. In last three games, Browns scored only 14 points on seven red zone drives. Browns beat Tennessee 2 of last 3 years; Titans won LY’s meeting 28-26. Tennessee are 4-2 here, losing 28-14 in last visit here, in 2015. AFC South teams are 7-6 vs spread outside the division, 2-3 on road; AFC North teams are 5-6, 2-3 at home. Jaguars (3-3) @ Colts (2-4)— Jacksonville is +11 in turnovers in its three wins, -1 in its losses; they allowed two special teams TD’s in home loss to Rams LW. Jaguars are 2-1 on road, with wins at Texans/Steelers- 4 of their last 5 games went over. Short week for Colts after Monday night game in Nashville- they’ve been outscored 85-22 in 4th quarter this year, allowing foes 7.4 yds/play in 4th quarter. All three Indy home games were decided by 3 points each. Colts won 7 of last 9 series games; home team won last four. Jaguars lost four visits here, by 20-20-3-4 points- one of their wins over Colts was in London LY. Over is 5-1 in Indy games this season, as have four of last five Jaguar games. Bengals (2-3) @ Steelers (4-2)— Bengals won last two games after an 0-3 start; they’re 1-1 on road- they led 21-7 at half in Green Bay before Rodgers beat ‘em in OT, Cincy’s first cover in last five games as a road dog. Cincy (-7) has only 4 takeaways in five games. Steelers handed KC its first loss LW; Pitt has only two TD’s on its last 20 drives, scoring 19 points on last five red zone drives, but they’ve kept 5 of 6 opponents to 5.1 ypa or less. Pitt won 7 of last 8 series games, winning last four by 13-2-8-4 points. Bengals are 3-5 SU in last eight visits here. Cincy is 5-12-1 SU in last 18 post-bye games, 4-9 vs spread in last 13 games as a post-bye underdog. Under is 4-1 in Bengal games, 6-0 in Pittsburgh games. Last 6+ years, Steelers are 20-13 as home faves. Ravens (3-3) @ Vikings (4-2)— Ravens lost 3 of last 4 games after a 2-0 start; they were only team that played LW that didn’t score an offensive TD- they had two special teams TDs but still lost at home to Chicago. Baltimore is 2-0 in true road games, beating Bengals 20-0 (+3), Raiders 30-17 (+2.5). Vikings were held to 9-7 points in their losses; they scored 20+ in their wins. Minnesota is 3-1 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite; they’re 14-5 vs spread as a home fave under Zimmer. Home team won last four series games; Ravens lost 33-31 in only visit here, back in ’09. AFC North teams are 5-6 vs spread outside the division, 3-1 as road underdogs; NFC North teams are 9-7, 2-2 as home favorites. Under is 5-1 in Viking games, 1-3 in last four Raven games. Jets (3-3) @ Dolphins (3-2)— Jets won last six series games, upsetting Miami 20-6 (+6) in Swamp back in Week 3, Fish ran for only 30 yards, were 1-12 on 3rd down. Jets won last four visits here, by 3-13-13-4 points. Dolphins are 3-2 after rallying from 17-0 halftime deficit to upset Falcons LW; they’ve been held under 300 yards in last four games, but they did beat Titans 16-10 in only home game so far. Miami is 4-11-1 vs spread in last 16 games as a home favorite. Jets covered their last four games (3-1 SU); they’re 1-2 on road this year, winning at Cleveland, losing by 9-25 points. Under Bowles, NY is 3-6-2 vs spread as road underdogs. Under is 3-1 in last four Jet games, 5-0 in Dolphin games this season. Tampa Bay (2-3) @ Bills (3-2)— Winston (shoulder) was KO’d in Arizona; 34-year old backup Fitzpatrick is 46-69-1 as an NFL starter for 6 other teams. Unsure which one starts here. Tampa Bay lost 34-17 (-2.5), 38-33 (-2) in its two road games; they’re 15-9 in last 24 games as a road underdog. Buffalo won its two home games, 21-12 (-8) over the Jets, 26-16 (+3) over Denver. Bucs are making only 2nd-ever visit to Orchard Park; they lost 33-20 here in ’09, but won 7 of other 9 series games. Buffalo won last two post-bye games; they’re 5-2 vs spread in last 7 games as a post-bye favorite. NFC South teams are 7-12 outside their division, 2-3 as underdogs; AFC East teams are 9-5 vs spread, but 0-3 as home favorites. Panthers (4-2) @ Bears (2-4)— John Fox opposes the team he took to the Super Bowl in 2003. Carolina is 1-4 in Windy City; the one win was an ’05 playoff game.  Panthers are 3-0 on road this season, scoring 23-33-27 points; they’ve got only two takeaways in last five games (-7). Carolina is 6-12-1 vs spread in last 19 games as a road favorite. Trubisky split his first two NFL starts, averaging 5.9/5.3 ypa; both Chicago wins this season were OT games. Bears allowed two special teams TD’s LW, including game-tying punt return in last 3:00- they ran ball for 231 yards. NFC South teams are 7-12 outside their division, 2-3 as road favorites; NFC North home dogs are 4-1 vs spread. Last three Panther games went over total; under is 4-2 in Chicago games. Saints (3-2) @ Packers (4-2)— Absence of Rodgers likely ruins Packers’ season; they’re home underdog to red-hot Saints, who forced 9 turnovers (+6) in winning last three games- their defense scored 3 TD’s LW— Brees’ offense...

Ravens (2-0) vs Jaguars (1-1) (@ London)— Baltimore forced 10 turnovers (+7) in winning first two games vs divisional foes; three of their five TD drives have been 40 or less yards. Ravens’ offense has started 10 drives 75+ yards from goal line, has only one TD, one FG, so their defense has been setting everything up. Jaguars won SU as underdogs in their last two London games; they split first two games this year, with turnovers dominating both games. Jax is 9-7 vs spread in last 16 games as an underdog. Teams split last six meetings; their games the last two years were decided by total of 3 points. Last two years, Ravens are 2-8-1 vs spread as a non-divisional favorite; they host rival Steelers next week. Browns (0-2) @ Colts (0-2)—Cleveland is a road favorite for just 2nd time in last 4+ years; over last decade, Browns are 5-2 vs spread as a road fave. Last 4+ years, AFC North teams are 10-20 vs spread as road faves. Browns faced Big Ben/Flacco in first two games; they drop way down in class here, facing Colts’ QB Brissett, who is 0-2 as an NFL starter, scoring 0-13 points in those games. Indy lost its first two games, scoring 9-13 points; they scored two TD’s on 25 drives, with 13 3/outs. Rookie QB Kizer got yanked from his first NFL road start; Browns are 5-24 on 3rd down so far this season. Indy is 7-1 vs Browns, with last two wins by total of five points. Cleveland’s only series win was here in 2011. 4 of last 6 series totals were 30 or less. Steelers (2-0) @ Bears (0-2)— In first two games, Steelers faced rookie QB Kizer, backup QB Keenum; hard to tell much about their defense yet. Steelers are only 8-26 on 3rd down; three of their four TD drives were 75+ yards. Last 2+ years, Pitt is 10-7 vs spread as a road favorite; last 8+ years, they’re 20-13 vs spread vs NFC teams. Last 4+ years, AFC North teams are 10-20 vs spread as road favorites. Chicago turned ball over four times in 29-7 loss in Tampa LW; Bucs’ TD drives were 13-35 yards, plus Tampa defense scored a TD. Pitt has 23 penalties for 221 yards in first two games; they need to clean that up. Steelers lost last two games with Chicago 17-14/40-23; their last win in Chicago was in ’95. How long before rookie QB Trubisky plays for Bears? Dolphins (1-0) @ Jets (0-2)— Miami is 4-2 vs spread in last six games as a road favorite; they’re 4-11 vs spread in last 15 AFC East road tilts. Jets won last five series games, taking last two played here by 18-21 points. Gang Green won/covered five of last seven home openers. Fish survived their opener in LA last week when Chargers missed last-minute 44-yard FG to win it; Miami kicked FG’s on all three red zone drives, but Cutler was 24-34/225 passing and they didn’t turn ball over. Jets allowed nine TD’s in first two games, with six drives of 77+ yards; opponents are 16-29 on 3rd down. Since 2013, New York is 10-5 vs spread as a home dog; last four years, they’re 8-4 vs spread in AFC East home games. Broncos (2-0) @ Bills (1-1)— First road game for Denver squad that ran ball for 318 yards, converted 17-30 on 3rd down in pair of home wins. Since 2011, Broncos are 20-10-1 vs spread as a road favorite; they’re 9-4–2 in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points. Buffalo allowed only one TD in its first two games; they were held to 176 yards in 9-3 loss in Charlotte LW- they lost field position by 5-10 yards in first two games. Denver won six of last eight series games; last meeting was in 2014. Broncos won three of last four visits here; last one was in ’11. Denver won/covered six of last seven road openers. Last 2+ years, AFC West non-divisional road favorites are 13-3-1 vs spread. Texans (1-1) @ Patriots (1-1)— These teams practiced together for few days this summer; they do lot of same stuff, Patriots just do it a lot better. Houston passed for only 98 yards in rookie QB Watson’s first NFL start, but he didn’t turn ball over and had a 49-yard TD run, their only TD of game. Texans are 8-11-1 as road underdogs under O’Brien- they’re 4-11 in last 15 non-divisional road games. New England allowed 700 passing yards in winning first two games, but against veteran QB’s; doubtful Watson can exploit that weakness. Patriots won last six series games, hammering Texans 27-0 in game LY that Brady sat out; they then waxed Houston 34-16 in playoffs. Texans are 0-5 in Foxboro, with 13 points the closest of the five games. Saints (0-2) @ Panthers (2-0)— New Orleans is 0-2 for 4th year in row; loss here makes them 0-3 for 3rd year in row, which is bad for job security. Saints allowed 1,025 total yards, 777 thru air in first two games without forcing a turnover; last 3+ years, they’re 11-5-1 as road underdogs, 5-1 in last six NFC South road games. Panthers won first two games and haven’t allowed a TD yet, but they’ve also faced QB’s Hoyer/Taylor. Brees’ offense is big step up in competition here. Carolina is 7-3 in its last 10 games with the Saints; last three were all decided by 3 points. New Orleans is 1-4 in last five visits to Charlotte, losing here last two years by 5-3 points. Panthers are 15-9-2 vs spread in last 26 games as a home favorite. Buccaneers (1-0) @ Vikings (1-1)— Bradford’s balky knee (are you surprised?) puts backup QB Keenum (9-16-1 as NFL starter) into spotlight. Minnesota is 14-4 vs spread as a home favorite under Zimmer, 11-1 vs non-division opponents. Under is 10-6 in their last 16 home games. Tampa Bay’s defense was dominant in opening...