NFL Betting Trends & Systems

Ravens (2-0) vs Jaguars (1-1) (@ London)— Baltimore forced 10 turnovers (+7) in winning first two games vs divisional foes; three of their five TD drives have been 40 or less yards. Ravens’ offense has started 10 drives 75+ yards from goal line, has only one TD, one FG, so their defense has been setting everything up. Jaguars won SU as underdogs in their last two London games; they split first two games this year, with turnovers dominating both games. Jax is 9-7 vs spread in last 16 games as an underdog. Teams split last six meetings; their games the last two years were decided by total of 3 points. Last two years, Ravens are 2-8-1 vs spread as a non-divisional favorite; they host rival Steelers next week. Browns (0-2) @ Colts (0-2)—Cleveland is a road favorite for just 2nd time in last 4+ years; over last decade, Browns are 5-2 vs spread as a road fave. Last 4+ years, AFC North teams are 10-20 vs spread as road faves. Browns faced Big Ben/Flacco in first two games; they drop way down in class here, facing Colts’ QB Brissett, who is 0-2 as an NFL starter, scoring 0-13 points in those games. Indy lost its first two games, scoring 9-13 points; they scored two TD’s on 25 drives, with 13 3/outs. Rookie QB Kizer got yanked from his first NFL road start; Browns are 5-24 on 3rd down so far this season. Indy is 7-1 vs Browns, with last two wins by total of five points. Cleveland’s only series win was here in 2011. 4 of last 6 series totals were 30 or less. Steelers (2-0) @ Bears (0-2)— In first two games, Steelers faced rookie QB Kizer, backup QB Keenum; hard to tell much about their defense yet. Steelers are only 8-26 on 3rd down; three of their four TD drives were 75+ yards. Last 2+ years, Pitt is 10-7 vs spread as a road favorite; last 8+ years, they’re 20-13 vs spread vs NFC teams. Last 4+ years, AFC North teams are 10-20 vs spread as road favorites. Chicago turned ball over four times in 29-7 loss in Tampa LW; Bucs’ TD drives were 13-35 yards, plus Tampa defense scored a TD. Pitt has 23 penalties for 221 yards in first two games; they need to clean that up. Steelers lost last two games with Chicago 17-14/40-23; their last win in Chicago was in ’95. How long before rookie QB Trubisky plays for Bears? Dolphins (1-0) @ Jets (0-2)— Miami is 4-2 vs spread in last six games as a road favorite; they’re 4-11 vs spread in last 15 AFC East road tilts. Jets won last five series games, taking last two played here by 18-21 points. Gang Green won/covered five of last seven home openers. Fish survived their opener in LA last week when Chargers missed last-minute 44-yard FG to win it; Miami kicked FG’s on all three red zone drives, but Cutler was 24-34/225 passing and they didn’t turn ball over. Jets allowed nine TD’s in first two games, with six drives of 77+ yards; opponents are 16-29 on 3rd down. Since 2013, New York is 10-5 vs spread as a home dog; last four years, they’re 8-4 vs spread in AFC East home games. Broncos (2-0) @ Bills (1-1)— First road game for Denver squad that ran ball for 318 yards, converted 17-30 on 3rd down in pair of home wins. Since 2011, Broncos are 20-10-1 vs spread as a road favorite; they’re 9-4–2 in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points. Buffalo allowed only one TD in its first two games; they were held to 176 yards in 9-3 loss in Charlotte LW- they lost field position by 5-10 yards in first two games. Denver won six of last eight series games; last meeting was in 2014. Broncos won three of last four visits here; last one was in ’11. Denver won/covered six of last seven road openers. Last 2+ years, AFC West non-divisional road favorites are 13-3-1 vs spread. Texans (1-1) @ Patriots (1-1)— These teams practiced together for few days this summer; they do lot of same stuff, Patriots just do it a lot better. Houston passed for only 98 yards in rookie QB Watson’s first NFL start, but he didn’t turn ball over and had a 49-yard TD run, their only TD of game. Texans are 8-11-1 as road underdogs under O’Brien- they’re 4-11 in last 15 non-divisional road games. New England allowed 700 passing yards in winning first two games, but against veteran QB’s; doubtful Watson can exploit that weakness. Patriots won last six series games, hammering Texans 27-0 in game LY that Brady sat out; they then waxed Houston 34-16 in playoffs. Texans are 0-5 in Foxboro, with 13 points the closest of the five games. Saints (0-2) @ Panthers (2-0)— New Orleans is 0-2 for 4th year in row; loss here makes them 0-3 for 3rd year in row, which is bad for job security. Saints allowed 1,025 total yards, 777 thru air in first two games without forcing a turnover; last 3+ years, they’re 11-5-1 as road underdogs, 5-1 in last six NFC South road games. Panthers won first two games and haven’t allowed a TD yet, but they’ve also faced QB’s Hoyer/Taylor. Brees’ offense is big step up in competition here. Carolina is 7-3 in its last 10 games with the Saints; last three were all decided by 3 points. New Orleans is 1-4 in last five visits to Charlotte, losing here last two years by 5-3 points. Panthers are 15-9-2 vs spread in last 26 games as a home favorite. Buccaneers (1-0) @ Vikings (1-1)— Bradford’s balky knee (are you surprised?) puts backup QB Keenum (9-16-1 as NFL starter) into spotlight. Minnesota is 14-4 vs spread as a home favorite under Zimmer, 11-1 vs non-division opponents. Under is 10-6 in their last 16 home games. Tampa Bay’s defense was dominant in opening...

Jets @ Bills—Buffalo led NFL in rushing yardage last two years; will that change under the new coach? Bills had won five in row over the Jets before getting swept 37-31/30-10 in two meetings LY. Jets lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 19-23-5 points. Jets open on road for first time since ’09; they’re 5-1 in last six season openers, 15-5 vs spread in last 20 road openers. Buffalo is 7-3 vs spread in last ten home openers- three of last four stayed under. Last five years, Bills are 9-6 vs spread when hosting AFC East foes; since 2012, they’re 12-10 as a home favorite. Over is 12-4 in their home games the last two years. Jets are 2-4-2 as road underdogs under Bowles. Under is 10-6 in Jet road games the last two seasons. Falcons @ Bears— Last 14 years, Super Bowl loser is 5-9 in its first game the next year (2-12 vs spread). Atlanta also has two new coordinators this year; they’re 3-2 in last five season openers, 4-3 as a road favorite under Quinn. Under is 15-9 in their road games the last three years. Chicago is 6-11-1 vs spread as a home underdog since ’12 (4-1 LY). First meeting in three years between these two; Falcons lost last six games in Windy City- their last win here was in 1983 (also in Week 1). Atlanta is 3-2 in its last five road openers. Under is 10-3 in their last 13 AO’s. Chicago lost its last three home openers, by 3-8-15 points; over is 4-1-1 in their last six. Bears were -20 in turnovers LY, are 14-34 SU the last three years. Jaguars @ Texans— Houston won last six games in this division rivalry; they swept Jaguars LY, 24-21/21-20. Jax lost five of last six games in Houston, losing last three by 1-24-6 points. Texans are 12-4-1 as a home favorite under O’Brien; they’re also starting 4th different QB on Opening Day in his four years as Texans’ coach. Since ’09, Jaguars are 24-29-1 as a road underdog; over is 11-5 in their road games the last two years. Jax lost its last nine road openers (2-7 vs spread)- they started 0-1 the last five years. Houston won six of last seven season openers, are 5-2 vs spread in last seven home openers. Under is 8-4 in their last 12 home openers, 10-6 in their home games the last two seasons. Eagles @ Redskins— Washington won last five series games, sweeping Iggles 27-20/27-22 LY. Philly lost last three visits here, by 3-3-7 points. Last two years, Redskins are 12-4 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points- they’re 4-8 as a home favorite under Gruden. Eagles are 8-9 vs spread as a road underdog the last three years. Philly won seven of last eight road openers- they covered last five tries as an underdog in AO’s. Over is 5-2-2 in their last nine AO’s. Washington lost four of its last five home openers; five of last six went over total. Last two years, Eagles are 7-10 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points. Over is 22-10 in Philly road games the last four years. Cardinals @ Lions— Redbirds are 10-6 vs spread on artificial turf, 10-5 as road favorites under Arians. Detroit is 1-5 as home underdog under Caldwell. Arizona won its last seven games with Lions; five of those seven were in desert. Redbirds won 31-24/42-17 in last two visits here; their last loss to Lions was here in 2005. Arizona had covered eight road openers in row before losing Week 3 AO in Buffalo LY- three of their last four went over. Cards won five of last seven season openers. Detroit won five of last six season openers, lost last two home openers, scoring 12-15 points. Over is 5-2 in their last seven HO’s. Over is 13-3 in Cardinal road games last two years. Over is 23-17 in their home games the last five years. Raiders @ Titans— Silver/Black was 7-1 LY in games with spread of 3 or less points; they’re 12-4 vs spread on road under Del Rio. Oakland won in Music City last two years, 24-21/17-10; road team won last three series games. Last four years, Titans are 9-20-3 vs spread at home; since 2011, they’re 13-22-3 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less. Oakland lost four of last five season openers; they’re 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten road openers— over is 12-5-1 in their last 18. Tennessee won three of last four season openers, but lost its last three home openers. Titans are 5-13-2 vs spread in last 20 non-divisional home tilts. Under is 7-3 in their last ten season openers. Oakland is 15-5 vs spread in its last 20 non-divisional road games. New kicker for the Raiders; Sebastian Janikowski got put on IR; Giorgio Tavecchio takes his place. Because of Hurricane Irma, Bucs-Dolphins will be played in Week 11. Ravens @ Bengals— Cincy is opening at home for first time since 2009; they went 4-3 in Week 1 road games since then, are 5-2 (4-2-1 vs spread) in last seven home openers. Under is 7-2 in their last nine HO’s. Bengals are 15-9-1 as home favorites since 2013, but their OL was ravaged in free agency last winter- they’re 7-5 vs spread in AFC North home games last four years. Since 2012, Baltimore is 10-13-1 as a road underdog; they’re 4-1-1 vs spread in last six divisional road games. Ravens lost four of last six road openers; they’re 7-4 vs spread in last 11 AO’s (over is 7-2-1 in last ten). These teams finished LY here against each other. Bengals won six of last seven meetings, winning last five played here, by 6-17-3-8-17 points. Steelers @ Browns— Since returning to NFL in 1999, Cleveland has been 1-0 once, 0-1 17 times, with only Week 1 win 20-3 over the Ravens in  ’04. Browns are 4-14...

Texans (9-6) @ Titans (8-7)— Battle of backup QB’s; will Houston sit Savage/starters with a playoff game next week? Tennessee’s season unraveled LW with loss to Jaguars and Mariota’s broken leg. Texans (-4.5) beat Titans 27-20 way back in Week 4, running punt back for a TD in game where total yardage was 359-320. Houston is 2-5 on road, winning by 3-5 in its other AFC South road games (Colts/Jags)- they’re 0-1 as road favorites this year but Texans have won four of last five visits here. Underdogs are 6-3-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season. Under is 4-1 in last five Houston, games, 3-9 in last dozen Titan tilts. Savage won his first NFL start 12-10 over Bengals LW; Cassel is 35-44 as an NFL starter; he started eight games LY, 7 for Dallas, one for Buffalo. Again, Houston has a home playoff game next week. Bills (7-8) @ Jets (3-12)— Rex Ryan was fired Tuesday; OC Anthony Lynn is interim coach. EJ Manuel is expected to play QB instead of starter Taylor. Tickets for this game were going for $8 on StubHub on Monday; no home field edge for Jets. Buffalo is 3-4 on road, 1-1 as road favorite; they lost three of last four games. Gang Green lost six of last seven games with win in OT over 49ers when they trailed 17-3 at half- they’re 1-6 at home this season. Jets (+1) won first matchup 37-31 in a Week 2 Thursday game in Buffalo- Jets passed for 370 yards, outgained Bills 493-393- they had TD’s of 84-71 yards. Buffalo won its last two visits here; series has been swept in six of last nine years. Over is 12-2 in last 14 Buffalo games, 3-7-1 in Jets’ last 11 games. Favorites are 5-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games. Ravens (8-7) @ Bengals (5-9-1)— Baltimore’s season ended on goal line in last 0:10 Sunday night in Pittsburgh; Ravens beat Bengals 19-14 (-4) at home in Week 12, leading 16-3 at half, they were outgained 325-311, but Dalton fumbled on Ravens’ 21 with 1:04 left to seal win. Baltimore lost last four visits here, by 6-17-3-8 points; this series ended in sweeps in six of last nine years. Bengals lost five of last seven games, losing in Houston LW when they missed 43-yard FG wide right at gun; Cincy is 3-3 at home, 3-2 as home favorite. Ravens lost their last five road games; they beat Browns/Jaguars on road back in Weeks 2-3- they’re 1-4 as a road underdog. Over is 4-0 in Ravens’ last four games, 1-6 in Bengals’ last seven. Favorites are 8-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season. Giants (10-5) @ Redskins (8-6-1)— Big Blue is locked into road playoff game next week while Redskins still have shot at making playoffs; why would Manning/starters play here? It would make no sense. Washington (+4.5) won 29-27 in Swamp Stadium in Week 3; they were +2 in turnovers after trailing 21-16 at half. Giants are 7-3 in last 10 visits here; series has been swept in 7 of last 10 years. New Jersey is 2-4 in true road games, beating Dallas/Browns; they’re 1-3-1 as road underdogs. Redskins won four of last five home games, are 3-2 vs spread as home favorites; they’ve trailed at half in five of their last seven games. Underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in NFC East divisional games. Under is 6-1 in last seven Giant games, 1-7 in last eight Washington games. Packers (9-6) @ Lions (9-6)— Winner takes NFC North; if game ends in a tie, they both get in, with Packers winning division. Green Bay (-7.5) won first meeting 34-27; they led 31-10 at half, but Stafford threw for 368 yards as Lions got back-door cover. Teams split last six visits here, with wins by 12-4-4 points, including Hail Mary in LY’s game. Packers won last five games (4-1 vs spread), are 3-4 on road, losing both their games in domes by total of 4 points. Detroit has short week after getting thumped in Dallas; they lost last two games on road, but won last six home games, with five of six wins by 3 or less points. Lions trailed in 4th quarter in 14 of 15 games this season. Over is 7-2 in Green Bay’s last nine games, 1-8 in Detroit’s last nine. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this season. Jaguars (3-12) @ Colts (7-8)— Indianapolis is 6-1 vs spread in game following a loss this year; they lost three of last four home games, are 3-2 as a home favorite. One of Jags’ three wins this year was 30-27 (-1) over Colts in London back in Week 4; they led 23-6 in 4th quarter, held on for win. Jags lost last three visits to Indy, by 20-20-3 points. Jaguars snapped 9-game skid LW in first game after Bradley was fired; they averaged 8.5 yards/pass attempt, their best game of year. Jaguars are 1-6 in true road games, 4-3 as road underdogs. As bad as Jax has been, they’ve trailed at halftime in only one of last six games. In their last five games, Colts are 31-61 on third down. Over is 4-1 in last five Jaguar games, 0-4 in Colts’ last four home games. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this year. Cowboys (13-2) @ Eagles (6-9)—Rumors Thursday say Cowboys will rest lot of regulars with nothing to gain here. Short week for Dallas after they pounded Lions Monday nite at home; with bye on deck and then playoffs. Philly snapped five-game skid by beating Giants LW; they’ve had four extra days to prep after playing on Thursday. Eagles are 3-9 in last 12 games after a 3-0 start; they’re 5-2 at home, losing to Packers, Redskins. Dallas won 29-23 in OT in first meeting (-4.5), running ball for 187 yards- they outgained Eagles 460-291 in game they trailed 13-10 at half. Cowboys won last four...

Broncos (8-4) @ Titans (6-6)— Denver is 7-1 in non-division games this year, with only loss in Week 5 to Atlanta; Broncos are 4-2 on road, 2-1 as road underdogs- they’re 5-29 (17.2%) on 3rd down in two games Lynch started, 57-137 (41.7%) in Siemian starts. Titans won three of last four home games, scoring 34.3 pts/game; they’re +6 in turnovers in last three games, with zero giveaways. Denver won five of last six series games in ’13; this is their first visit here in five years. Tennessee is 1-5 in last six post-bye games; they were an underdog in only two of those six games. AFC West non-divisional road teams are 15-3 vs spread, 9-3 as underdogs. AFC South home teams are 7-10, 5-4 as favorites. Four of last five Bronco road games stayed under total; eight of last nine Tennessee games went over. Chargers (5-7) @ Panthers (4-8)— Carolina lost three of last four games, is out of playoff race after dismal 40-7 loss in Seattle where QB Newton was benched for first series- sounds like they’ve got internal issues. Visitor won four of last five series games; Carolina is 4-1 in last five games vs San Diego- teams split two meetings here. Chargers are 5-1 vs spread this year in game following a loss; they’re 2-4 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs, with wins at Atlanta and Houston (both domes). Carolina is 3-3 at home, 2-4 as a home favorite. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-9 vs spread; AFC West road underdogs are 9-3. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Charger games, 1-4 in Carolina’s last five home games. Philip Rivers started 52 games at NC State; this is first time he’s played in Charlotte since 2004. Texans (6-6) @ Colts (6-6)— Short week for Indy after easy win Monday night in New Jersey. Colts are 1-3-1 vs spread this year in game following a win. Houston lost its last three games by 7-8-8 points, scoring 15.3 pts/game; they’re 1-5 on road, 1-4 as road underdogs, losing away games by 27-18-18-7-8 points, with win at Jacksonville- this is their 4th road game in last five weeks. Colts are 3-3 at home, 3-1 as home favorites. Texans won first meeting 26-23 in OT in Week 6, game they trailed 13-3 at half- Houston is 6-23 vs Indy, 2-6 in last eight meetings. Texans are are 1-13 in Indy, losing 16-10 here LY. Home favorites are 3-2 vs spread in AFC South divisional games. Under is 4-2 in last six Houston games, 3-0 in Colts’ last three home games. Bengals (4-7-1) @ Browns (0-12)— Robert Griffin III is expected back at QB for Browns, who had last week off; Cleveland is 1-4-1 vs spread as a home underdog, losing home games by 5-20-3-25-15-14 points- they’re 6-5 vs spread in last 11 post-bye games. Bengals snapped 1-5-1 skid with rout of Eagles last week; they’re 1-5 in true road games, with only win 23-22 in Week 1 at the Jets. Cincy is 3-5 as a favorite this season; they won first meeting with Browns 31-17 (-9.5) in Week 7, running ball for 271 yards; total yardage was 559-352. Bengals won last four series games by average score of 32-8; they won last two visits here, 30-0/37-3. Favorites are 6-1 vs spread in AFC North games this year, 1-1 on road. Under is 3-1 in Bengals’ last four games, 4-0 in Cleveland’s last four. Steelers (7-5) @ Bills (6-6)— Going to be a mixed crowd in Orchard Park for pivotal game in AFC playoff race. Pittsburgh won last five series games and nine of last ten, holding Buffalo to 11.2 pts/game in last five. Steelers won their last three visits here- their last loss in Buffalo was in ’99. Bills are 3-2 at home, 1-1 as home underdogs; they ran ball for 182.7 yds/game in three games since their bye, but they allowed 28+ points in four of last six games, have zero takeaways in last two games. Steelers won/covered last three games, allowing 10 pts/game; they’re 3-3 SU/ATS on road and were favored in all six games. AFC North non-divisional road teams are 5-10 vs spread, 3-4 in favored. AFC East home teams are 8-8, 4-3 as an underdog. Over is 9-2 in last 11 Buffalo games, 2-9 in Steelers’ last 11. Cardinals (5-6-1) @ Dolphins (7-5)— Arizona is 1-4 on road this year, giving up 32.8 pts/game in losses; their only road win is at 1-11 SF. Redbirds scored five TDs on nine drives LW; they’re 4-1-1 if they don’t turn ball over, 1-5 if they do. Miami had 6-game win streak snapped LW by Ravens; Dolphins are 5-1 at home with only loss to Titans; they’re 1-3 as home favorites and needed OT to beat 0-12 Browns at home. Arizona won last three series games after an 0-8 skid vs Miami; Cardinals are 1-4 in Miami with only win in ’04. Three of last four series games were decided by 3 or less points. NFC West non-divisional road teams are 6-11 vs spread, 4-7 as underdogs. NFC East home teams are 8-8, 4-5 as favorites. Over is 4-2 in last six Arizona games, 4-1 in last five Dolphin games. Bears (3-9) @ Lions (8-4)— Lions have a 2-game lead in NFC North; why does that make me nervous about them? Chicago (+3.5) upset Detroit 17-14 at home in Week 4, outgaining Lions 408-263; Detroit’s only TD came on a punt return. Bears’ win snapped 6-game series skid vs Lions, with last three series losses all by 6 or less points; Chicago lost its last three visits here, by 8-17-3 points. Bears are 0-6 on road this season, 1-4 as a road underdog, with losses on foreign soil by 9-14-6-16-26-6 points. Last week was first time this year; Detroit didn’t trail in 4th quarter. Lions won/covered last four games, are 5-1 at home, 3-2 as home favorite, winning by 1-3-3-7-3 points at home. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are...

Raiders (10-2) @ Chiefs (9-3)— Long travel, short work week for Oakland; temps expected to be in 20’s. First place is up for grabs in AFC West; Chiefs won first meeting 26-10 (-1.5) in Oakland in Week 6- KC ran ball for 183 yards, was +2 in turnovers and shut Raiders out 13-0 in second half. Chiefs won six of last seven series games, with five of six wins by 14+ points. Oakland lost last three visits to Arrowhead by 17-18-6 points. Raiders won last six games overall (5-1 vs spread); they won/covered all five true road games this year, are 4-0 as road underdogs. Chiefs won seven of last eight games; they’re 4-1 at home, but 1-4 as home favorites, winning at Arrowhead by 6-21-6-5 points, with loss to Tampa Bay. Over is 10-2 in Raider games, 2-6 in last eight Chief...

Vikings (6-4) @ Lions (6-4)— Battle for first place in NFC North. Detroit kicked 58-yard FG on last play of regulation, won first meeting 22-16 in OT at Minnesota three weeks ago. This rivalry has been swept in four of last five years; Lions are 7-5 in last 12 games with Vikings, 4-2 in last six played here. Minnesota snapped 4-game skid with win over Arizona; they’ve scored a TD on defense/special teams in 4 of their 6 wins. Vikings lost last three road games, by 11-10-6 points- they’re 1-1 as road dogs. All 10 Detroit games were decided by 7 or less points; Lions trailed all 10 games in 4th quarter- they’re 4-1 at home, 2-2 as home favorites. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year. Last four Detroit games stayed; under total; under is 4-1 in Viking road games. Redskins (6-3-1) @ Cowboys (9-1)— Two hot teams; Washington is 6-1-1 in last eight games, Dallas has won/covered nine straight games. Really short week for Redskins, who have long road trip, plus they played Sunday NIGHT. This is only 4th true road game for Washington; they are 2-1 in first three, all decided by 6 or less points- two of those were in New Jersey/Baltimore, very short trips- they also had neutral field game in London. Dallas hasn’t lost since Opening Night vs Giants; they’re 3-1 as home favorites this year. Cowboy opponents are just 8 for last 28 on third down. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC East divisional games. Over is 4-1 in last five Redskin games, 2-5 in last seven Dallas games. Steelers (5-5) @ Colts (5-5)— Colt QB Luck had concussion in win over Titans; check status for this game; his backup is Tolzien (0-1-1 as NFL starter, with ’13 Packers). Pitt is 13-2 in last 15 series games, winning last two 51-34/45-10; they outgained Colts 522-240 in LY’s game. Steelers won three of last four visits here, but last one was in 2011. Pitt snapped 4-game skid with lackluster 24-9 win in Cleveland; they’re 2-3 on road, with losses by 31-15-7 points. Only one of 10 Steeler games was decided by less than 7 points. Indy won three of last four games, is 3-2 at home, 2-2-1 vs spread as an underdog this year. NFC North teams are 8-18 vs spread in non-divisional games, 4-10 on road. AFC South teams are 13-14 vs spread, 7-7 at home. Steelers allowed 16 or less points in their wins, 21+ in their...

Falcons (5-3) @ Buccaneers (3-4)— Underdogs are 20-3 vs spread in Atlanta games since Quinn has been their coach. Over is 7-1 in their games this year; road teams covered seven of eight games. Falcons are 3-1 on road (4-0 vs spread) but were dogs in all four. Bucs are 0-3 at home this year after 30-24 OT loss to Oakland; Raiders ran 85 plays for 626 yards, averaged 8.2 ypa. Tampa allowed 24 or less points in its wins, 27+ in its losses. Tampa Bay had three TD plays of 23+ yards in 31-24 win (+3) in season opener in Atlanta; Winston averaged 8.5 yds/pass attempt. Bucs won last three series games, by 3-4-7 points; LY was their first series sweep since ’07. Falcons are 4-3 in last seven visits here. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in NFC South divisional games so far this...

Bengals (2-3) @ Patriots (4-1)— Brady returned LW with 406 passing yards, three TDs in an easy win; Pats are 13-7-3 in last 23 games as a home favorite. Cincinnati got spanked in Dallas LW, giving up 180 rushing yards in game that was 28-0 in 4th quarter; Bengals are just 20-66 on 3rd down; they’re 13-6-3 in last 22 games as a road underdog, 0-1 this year. Patriots won five of last six series games, with last four wins by 14+ points; Bengals lost last six visits to Foxboro- their last win here was in 1980. AFC East teams are 7-7 vs spread outside their division, 0-2 as home favorites. NFC North teams are 7-9 vs spread in non-division tilts, 1-3 as an underdog. Under is 4-1 in New England games this season, 3-1 in Bengals’ last four games. Ravens (3-2) @ Giants (2-3)— Both teams struggling; Baltimore fired OC Trestman Monday, after scoring 8 TDs with 8 turnovers in first five games, all of which were decided by 6 or less points- they’re 11-45 on 3rd down in last three games. Former Lions HC Mornhinweg takes over as OC. Ravens are 2-0 on road, winning by 5 at Cleveland, 2 at Jacksonville. Giants lost last three games, scoring two TDs on 22 drives in last two games; they’re 1-1 at home, with two games decided by total of 5 points. Ravens won four of last five series games, with three of four wins by 19+ points. Under is 4-1 in Giant games, 3-2 in Baltimore games. Ravens are 6-1 in last seven games as a road dog; they’re underdog for first time this year. Giants are 2-5 in last seven games as a home favorite. Panthers (1-4) @ Saints (1-3)— Carolina traveling on short week after ugly loss Monday, where they were -4 in turnovers, still only lost on last play of game. Panthers allowed 34.5 pts/game in losing first two road games; they’re 5-11 in last 16 games as a road favorite, 0-2 this year. Saints lost six of last eight games with Carolina, who won three of last four visits here. Road underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in NO games this year; over last 7+ years, Saints are 3-1 as home underdogs. Favorites are 6-0-1 vs spread in Saints’ last eight post-bye games, with NO losing 24-23/24-6 in last two post-bye tilts, after winning five in row. New Orleans is 7-11-3 in last 21 games where spread was 3 or less points; Carolina is 6-2 in last eight such games. Steelers (4-1) @ Dolphins (1-4)— Will probably be more Steeler fans than Miami fans here; in last two games, Dolphins have run only 84 plays for 422 yards, their opponents 139 plays for 761 yards. Miami is -9 in turnovers (2-11) in its last four games. All four Steeler wins are by 8+ points; Pitt has 10 TDs on 21 drives in last two games- over last 8+ years, they’re 12-21-1 as a road favorite. Home side lost last three series games; Steelers won last three visits here and five of last six overall in series- last tine they lost here was 1998. Three of last four Miami games went over total, under is 3-1 in last four Steeler games. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 7-9 vs spread in non-divisional games. Dolphins are 2-3 in last five games as a road underdog. Jaguars (1-3) @ Bears (1-4)— Jaguars had rough bye week after hurricane pounded their town last week; they’ve covered five of last six post-bye games. Jax is 6-11-1 in last 18 games as a road underdog, 0-1 this year- they beat Colts in London in last game- three of their four games this year went over total. Jags are 9-17 in last 26 games where spread was 3 or less points. Chicago racked up 532 yards in 29-23 loss at Indy LW, but scored only one TD in three trips to red zone- they scored 17 or less points in four of five games. Hoyer threw for 397 yards LW, 9.2 yards/attempt; Bears are 8-22-3 in last 23 games where spread was 3 or less. NFC North teams are 7-6 vs spread outside the division, 2-2 as home favorite. AFC South teams are 7-8, 2-3 as road underdogs. 49ers (1-4) @ Bills (3-2)— Kaepernick gets first start of year at QB for 49ers after their 4th loss in row LW; he gives them more mobility, little more of a deep passing threat, but is less accurate on short passes. Niners allowed 83 points in losing both its road games- they’re 3-10 in last 13 games as a road underdog, 0-2 this year. Buffalo won its last three games after an 0-2 start; they’re +9 in turnovers for year, +8 in last three games. Bills scored 30+ points in three of last four games, running ball for 178.3 yds/game in three games since they changed OCs- they’ve scored a defensive TD in three of last four games. Buffalo is 3-2 as home favorite under Ryan, 0-1 this year. 49ers won last two series games 10-3/45-3; they’ve split four visits here. Rams (3-2) @ Lions (2-3)— Underdogs are 5-0 vs spread this year in Detroit games, 4-1 in LA’s games. Lions are 4-3 in last seven series games, but lost 21-14 in St Louis LY, when they didn’t have a play in game longer than 18 yards. Rams lost five of last seven visits to Motor City; they won last two road games by total of 9 points- this is their first game on artificial turf this season. LA is 7-6-1 in last 14 games as a road underdog. Detroit’s five games have all been decided by 7 or less points, their two home games were both decided by a single point; Lions are 8-3-2 as home favorites under Caldwell, 0-1 this year. Injury to Rams’ best CB Johnson (ankle) could be a big problem for their defense, which has allowed 28+ points in three of five...

Broncos (4-1) @ Chargers (1-4)— Denver coach Kubiak (migraines) is out for this game, which is bigger problem than usual since he calls plays; QB Siemian is expected back after missing a game. Broncos won nine of last ten series games, winning last five in row, all by 7+ points- they’ve won their last five visits here. San Diego is 1-4 despite scoring 30.4 pts/game; all four of their losses are by 4 or less points or in OT. Chargers turned ball over 10 times in last three games; five of last six TDs they allowed were on drives of less than 50 yards. Denver is 5-1-1 in last seven games as a road favorite; last 8+ years, San Diego is 5-9 as a home dog. Over is 4-1 in Charger games, 3-2 in Denver games. Chargers are allowing 20.6 second half...