NFL Betting Trends & Systems

Titans (1-3) @ Dolphins (1-3)— Tennessee fired its special teams coach Monday after LW’s debacle in Houston. Titans are 10-18 as road underdogs last 4+ years, 1-1 this year- they have not allowed an offensive TD in second half of last three games, outscoring foes 23-10- they lost 38-10 at home to Miami LY, are 2-4 in last six series games, 1-3 here, with last visit in 2012. Over last decade, Dolphins are dismal 11-27 as home favorite, 0-1 this year- this is first of four strait home games for Fish (next road game, Nov 13). Miami is -7 in turnovers in its last three games. AFC East teams are 5-5 vs spread in non-divisional games, 0-1 as a favorite. AFC South teams are 5-7, 2-4 as underdogs. Patriots (3-1) @ Browns (0-4)— Brady is back at QB here after his suspension; Patriots are 6-2 vs team Belichick used to coach (36-44 in five years, 1991-95), 2-2 here, with last visit in ’10. New England is 4-12 as road favorites last 3+ years; they nipped Arizona 23-21 (+6) in only road game so far this year, with Garoppolo at QB. Browns are 0-4 this year, starting three QBs; they’re 2-2 vs spread, with last three games going over total. Cleveland lost 25-20 (+6.5, led 20-0) in only home game so far, vs Ravens- they trailed only one of four games at halftime, but have been outscored 73-17 in second half of games. Patriots are 1-1 as a favorite this year. AFC North teams are 6-6 vs spread, 1-2 as underdogs. Jets (1-3) @ Steelers (3-1)— New York turned ball over 11 times (-9) in last two games; they’ve been outscored 51-30 in second half of games, with one TD on 21 drives since 37-31 win at Buffalo. Jets are 15-19-3 in last 37 games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year. Steelers won 24-16/43-14 in home games this year; they’re 14-6 vs spread in last 20 games as home favorite, 2-0 this year. Pitt hasn’t played game this year decided by less than 8 points; they’re 19-5 in last 24 games vs Jets; nine of last 11 series totals were 37 or less. Jets lost last nine visits to Steel City, losing last one 27-10 in ’12. AFC East teams are 5-5 vs spread in non-divisional games, 4-5 as an underdog. Texans (3-1) @ Vikings (4-0)— Minnesota is on 17-2 spread run, 4-0 this year, after Monday’s win over Giants; Vikings won 17-14/24-10 in two home games this year- they’re 10-2 as a home favorite under Zimmer, 7-0 in last seven tries. Texans’ offense was rolling early LW, with O’Brien calling plays, until TE Fiedorowicz (knee) was injured. Houston lost 27-0 in Foxboro in its only road game; they’re 5-6-1 as road dogs under O’Brien. Minnesota won all three series games, by 6-7-17 points, in three series games; Texans lost 28-21 in their only visit here, 8 years ago. AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread outside its division, 2-4 as underdogs, 1-3 on road. NFC North teams are 5-5 its spread n non-divisional games, 1-2 as home favorites. Redskins (2-2) @ Ravens (3-1)— Short road trip for Washington squad that scored 60 points in winning last two games after 0-2 start; they’ve got six takeaways (+4) in last two games, winning despite being outgunned by 54-79 yards. Redskins are 3-2 vs Ravens, winning last meeting 31-28 in OT four years ago; Skins lost 24-10 in last visit here, in ’08. Washington won only road game 29-27 (+4.5) at Giants two weeks ago. Four Raven games this year were decided by total of 14 points; last two were decided by total of 3 points. Baltimore NFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread in non-division games, 2-2 as underdogs, 2-1 on road. AFC North teams are 6-6 vs spread outside its division, 3-2 as home favorites. Eagles (3-0) @ Lions (1-3)— Philly sprinted out to 3-0 start behind rookie QB Wentz, but then had bye; will it kill their momentum? Eagles have yet to turn ball over (+6), winning 29-14 in only road game, at Chicago. Philly is 15-2 in last 17 post-bye games (2-2 in last four); going back to 1990, they’re 13-3 vs spread as favorite in post-bye games (most of that was under Reid). Eagles are 7-2 in last nine games vs Detroit, but lost 45-14 to Lions LY (TY was 430-227, Lions). Iggles are 2-1-1 in last four visits here. Detroit lost its last three games, by 1-7-3 points; underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in their games this year- they lost 16-15 to Titans in only home game. Since 2011, Lions are 1-7-1 vs spread as a home underdog. Bears (1-3) @ Colts (1-3)— Both teams are struggling badly; Indy is first team not to have bye after London game- they requested it that way. Colts have 12 TDs on 41 drives, but needed 63-yards in last 1:20 to nip San Diego for its only win- three of their four games went over. Indy had three takeaways in their win, a total of one in their three losses- they’re 3-5 in last eight games as home favorites. Bears got first win LW, at home over Lions, holding Detroit without offensive TD. Chicago won six of last eight series games, winning last three visits here, by 4-14-16 points; Bears lost 23-14/31-17 on road this year; they’re 6-4-1 in last 11 games as a road dog. NFC North teams are 5-5 vs spread outside its division, 3-2 as road dogs. AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread, 3-2 as home favorites. Falcons (3-1) @ Broncos (4-0)— Atlanta has NFL’s top offense, gaining over 7 yards/play, scoring 38 pts/game- they scored 93 points in last two games, but also allow 31 pts/game. Falcons are 6-1 in last seven games as a road underdog. Broncos won/covered all four games, winning last three by 12+ points; they’re 2-4-1 as home favorites under Kubiak, 1-0 this year. Bengals are only one of four...

Falcons (1-1) @ Saints (0-2)– New Orleans is 15-5 in last 20 games of this rivalry; they beat Falcons 31-21/20-17 LY. Atlanta lost four of its last five visits here. Saints lost first couple games by total of 4 points- they didn’t allow offensive TD LW, after giving up 35 points to Oakland in home opener. NO is 4-10-1 in last 15 games as a home favorite. Falcons scored 59 points in splitting first two games; they’re 6-4 in last ten games as a road dog- they have allowed eight TDs in first two games, four on plays of 23+ yards. Saints are 7-10-3 in last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points. Underdogs are 12-2 vs spread in Atlanta’s last 14 games where spread was 3 or less...

Texans (2-0) @ Patriots (2-0)– Rookie QB Brissett makes first NFL start here; Garropolo will be a backup- they didn’t sign another QB (WR Edelman was QB in college). Tough spot for Texans; long travel with short week in their road opener. Houston won its first two games at home, not allowing a TD in 2nd half of either game. Patriots scored TD on first drive of all four halves so far, winning first two games 23-21/31-24. New England won last four series games, three by 13+; they won 27-6 (-5) in Houston LY, outgaining Texans 313-189. Houston is 0-3 in Foxboro, losing all three by 13+. Houston coach O’Brien is a former Patriot QB coach. Brissett was 15-11 as a starter at NC State last two years. Texans won four of last five road openers. Over last 8+ years, Patriots are 3-0 as a home underdog. Houston is 4-0 as a road favorite und...

Titans (0-1) @ Lions (1-0)– Detroit is 8-2-2 as home favorite under Caldwell. Tennessee led Vikings 10-0 at half LW, but offense gave up two TDs in second half of demoralizing loss. Only two teams lost LY when they didn’t allow a TD on offense. Detroit blew 21-3 lead, rallied late for win in Indy; they had five TD drives of 71+ yards. Titans won last four series games, three by 5 or less points; they won last three visits to Motor City. Titans are 6-3 (7-2 vs spread) in last nine road openers; they’re 9-17 as road dogs the last four years. Lions won four of last five home openers; they’re 8-1-1 as a favorite in HOs, but just 6-10-1 in last 17 games vs AFC teams. Under is 15-4 in Titans’ last 19 road openers, 1-5 in Detroit’s last six home openers. Titans’ DC LeBeau played his whole 14-year career for the Lions. Chiefs (1-0) @ Texans (1-0)– KC rallied back from down 24-3 with 21:00 left for OT win in its opener; Chiefs are 7-6 as road underdogs last three years, 11-6 in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less points. Houston is 8-3 as home favorites under O’Brien; they’re 14-11-1 in last 26 games with spread of 3 or less. Texans shut Chicago out in second half LW; they were 12-20 on 3rd down, ran 18 more plays, had 8-yard edge in field position. Road team won four of seven series games; KC is 3-2 here, with 27-20 win in LY’s opener. Chiefs lost six of last nine road openers but are 10-5 vs spread in last 15 AOs (under 7-4 in last 11). Texans’ DC Crennel was once HC of Chiefs (2012). Dolphins (0-1) @ Patriots (1-0)– Interim QB Garoppolo passed his first test with flying colors in Arizona, he passed for 257 yards, Pats converted 10-16 on 3rd down and won 23-21- they’re 12-6-3 as home favorite last three years. Miami didn’t allow TD until last minute 12-10 loss at Seattle; last four years, Dolphins are 2-8 as divisional road dogs. Miami gained 222 yards LW, 3rd-least in NFL, gaining 4.8 yds/pass attempt- they lost despite 10-yard edge in field position. Home side won last seven series games; Miami lost seven in a row in Foxboro, last four by 10+ points (three of four by 28+). Patriots are 13-1 in last 14 home openers (2-5-1 vs spread in last eight); their last four HOs stayed under the total. Ravens (1-0) @ Browns (0-1)– 37-year old McCown gets start at QB for Browns after RGII broke his shoulder; he is 2-17 as a starter last two years (Bucs/Browns). Cleveland may be 1-17 in its season openers, but they’re 8-9 in Week 2 games, 5-2 at home. Baltimore is 14-2 in last 16 series games, going 7-1 in last eight visits to their old home, but Ravens lost four of last five road openers (win was here). Browns are 1-5 vs spread in AFC North games last two years; they were outgained 403-288 LW- they lost field position by 17 yards. Ravens held Buffalo to 160 yards in 13-7 win LW; Bills averaged only 4.0 yards/pass attempt. Over is 6-2-1 in Ravens’ last nine AOs, 5-8 in Cleveland’s last 13 HOs. Bengals (1-0) @ Steelers (1-0)– Pitt knocked Cincy out of playoffs LY with 18-16 win in Cincy. Bengals drove 55 yards in nine plays to kick GW FG with 0:54 left in its opener in Jersey Swamp. Cincy is 13-4-3 as road underdog last five years; over last seven years, they’re 30-15-2 as single-digit dog. Steelers won 12 of last 13 home openers; they are 7-3 vs spread as favorite in HOs. Last three years, Pitt is 11-6 as home favrotie- they won four of last five games vs Bengals; teams split last four here. Steelers were 9-14 on 3rd down in Monday night win- they gained 147 yards on ground, 288 thru air in a well-balanced attack with Big Ben calling plays. Four of last five series totals were 44+. Five of their last seven home openers stayed under total. Cowboys (0-1) @ Redskins (0-1)– First road start for rookie QB Prescott (25-45/227 vs Giants last week). Dallas had one TD, two FGs in three visits to red zone; they tried FGs on four of six drives that started 75+ yards from end zone- their only TD drive was 35 yards. Teams split last eight series games; Dallas won last three in Maryland, winning 24-23/44-17/19-16. Skins had only 12 carries for 55 yards in home loss vs Steelers Monday; former Redskin RB Morris had 35 rushing yards in backup role for Dallas. Divisional underdogs were 4-0 vs spread last week. Cowboys are 18-8 vs spread in last 26 road openers, winning six of last nine SU. Washington was in Steeler territory seven times Monday, scored only one TD. Saints (0-1) @ Giants (1-0)– Brees had 511 passing yards in 52-49 win over Giants LY; home side won nine of last ten series games, Saints losing five of last six visits here, with its one win in ’06. Saints gave up TD/2-point conversion in last minute LW, losing at home to Raiders in game New Orleans led 24-10 in 3rd quarter. Giants won first opener in six years LW, but Cowboys were 10-17 on 3rd down with rookie QB. Big Blue lost last four home openers, allowing 28.8 ppg; they’re9-7 as home favorite last three years. Saints are 7-3-1 in last 11 games as an underdog, 1-7 vs spread in last eight road openers (0-6 in last six). Seven of Saints’ last eight AOs went over total; under is 10-6 in Giants’ last 16 HOs. 49ers (1-0) @ Panthers (0-1)– Long travel on short week for 49ers, who opened Monday night at home with a shutout win; they’re 6-3 in last nine road openers, 3-8 in last 11 series games, with last meeting in ’13 playoffs. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven AOs....

Pittsburgh @ Washington– Steelers lost last five road openers (0-4-1 vs spread), all by 7+ points; they lost four of last five season openers (0-4-1 vs spread), but won last five games vs Washington, last four all by 9+ points. This is only third visit here for Steelers since ’68; they split last two. Pitt is 11-20-1 as road favorite last eight years, 6-14 in non-divisional games. Under is 10-5 in their road games last two years. Redskins are 5-4 as home dog under Gruden; since ’08, they’re 12-24-2 vs spread in non-divisional home games. Skins lost last three season openers, three of last four home openers. Under is 7-2 in Steelers’ last nine road openers, 1-4 in Washington’s last five home openers. Los Angeles @ San Francisco– Rams are favored despite being 1-13 in last 14 road openers, with only win 19-17 (-4) at Tampa Bay couple years ago. LA is 1-3 as road fave in Fisher era. Keenum is 5-2 in last seven starts. Since 2000, Rams are 3-13 vs spread in Week 1. 49ers are 7-3-1 as home underdog since ’09, 1-3 in last four home openers, losing in Week 1 last three years. Niners are 4-2-1 in last seven series games; Rams are 1-6-1 in last eight visits here, with three of last four visits decided by 3 or less points; it is much shorter road trip now than it was in those eight trips. LA outrushed 49ers 330-146 in two meetings LY; wraps will get taken off Gurley here after he hardly played in preseason. Under is 7-3 in Rams’ last 10 road openers, 9-5-1 in 49ers’ last 15 HOs, 18-6 in 49ers home games the last three...

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta– Bucs’ new DC is Mike Smith, the former Falcons’ head coach. Last three years, Falcons are 5-17 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points; they’re 4-11 in last 15 games as home favorite. Last two years, Bucs are 2-9 in games with spread of 3 or less points- they swept Falcons 23-20/23-19 LY; they’ve split last four visits to Georgia Dome. Tampa Bay is 3-7 in last 10 road openers, but 4-1 vs spread as a dpg in road openers. Under is 16-7 in their last 23 road openers. Atlanta won, covered its last eight home openers; they’re 14-3 vs spread in last 17 home openers. Falcons covered last eight times they opened season at home; three of its last four home openers went under the total. Minnesota @ Tennessee– Hill gets start at QB for Minnesota, but Bradford will be starter soon. Hill was 3-5 for ’14 Rams, his only starts since ’10. Last four years, Minnesota is 20-7 vs spread in games that have a spread of 3 or less points; Vikings open on road for 8th time in last nine years; they open a new domed stadium next week. Last three years, Tennessee is 2-8-2 vs spread in games that have spread of 3 or less points; since ’11, they’re 6-14-2 as home dogs. Minnesota won five of last six series games, with last four wins over Tennessee by 10+ points; they split two visits to Nashville, with last one in ’08. Vikings are 3-5 in last eight season openers, 4-11 in last 15 road openers; under is 9-3 in their last 12 road openers. Titans are 7-3 last 10 times they opened season at home; four of their last five season openers stayed under total. Cleveland @ Philadelphia– Rookie Wentz gets nod at QB for Eagles, despite hardly playing in preseason (ribs). Browns started season 1-0 once in last 17 years; they’re 2-8-1 vs spread in last 11 openers, 4-7-2 in last 13 road openers. Cleveland is on their sixth coach in nine years; they’re 0-4 vs Eagles, losing its last visit to Philly 30-10 in ’08. Eagles are on third coach in four years; since ’10, they’re 11-19 vs spread in non-divisional home games. Iggles are 2-8 vs spread in last 10 home openers; 0-7 when favored by less than eight points. Browns are 13-15-2 as road dogs last four years. Under is 6-2-1 in Eagles’ last nine home openers, 8-5 in Cleveland’s last 13 season openers. Would like to take Cleveland, with rookie from I-AA school starting after he missed most of preseason, but how do you trust RGIII on the road, given Cleveland’s dismal record in openers? Cincinnati @ NJ Jets– Fitzpatrick didn’t sign until an hour before training camp started, but had full camp; Jets are 7-2 vs spread as home underdogs last three years. Bengals lost last nine games vs Jets in NY/NJ area, with last series win here in 1981. Jets are 9-2 in last 11 series games, but lost 49-9 at Cincinnati in 2013 in last series game. Gang Green won last five home openers (three by 5 or less points); they’re 7-1 in last eight season openers. Bengals split last six season openers, which were all on the road. Since 2011, Cincinnati is 11-6-1 as road favorite- they are 17-5-3 vs spread in last 25 non-divisional road tilts. Over is 6-1 in Cincy’s last seven road openers, 3-5 in Jets’ last eight openers at home. Oakland @ New Orleans– Former Oakland coach Allen is Saints’ new DC. Since ’08, Saints is 24-10-3 as non-divisional home favorite. Last four years, Raiders are 4-15 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points, but they’re 9-4 in last 13 games as non-divisional road dogs. Saints won last three series games by average of 34-15– Raiders are 2-3-1 vs Saints on Bourbon Street. Oakland lost 12 of last 13 openers; since ’07, they’re 6-1-1 vs spread as an underdog in road openers. Over last eight years, Saints are 14-8-2 as favorite of 3 or less points; they lost four of last five openers; they’re 13-5 in last 18 home openers (5-2-1 vs spread when favored in HO’s). Over is 11-5-1 in last 17 Oakland road openers, 3-9 in last 12 Superdome openers. Chargers @ Chiefs– San Diego didn’t score TD vs Chiefs LY, losing 33-3/10-3; they lost last two visits to Arrowhead, 19-7/10-3, as KC won last four series games. Chargers are 18-8-1 as a road underdog last four years, 7-3 in last 10 AFC West road games. Chiefs are 3-7 in last 10 season openers, 5-11 in last 16 home openers; they’re 2-9-1 vs spread as a fave in home openers. San Diego covered its last four openers; they’re 8-5-1 vs spread as an underdog in road openers. Since ’08, Kansas City is 13-23 as a home favorite (10-12 under Reid). Under is 19-4-2 in Chiefs’ last 25 home openers, 3-1 in Bolts’ last four road openers. Chiefs covered only eight of last 23 AFC West home games. Buffalo @ Baltimore– Last four years, Ravens are 5-10-2 vs spread as favorite of 3 or less points. Home team won last five series games; Bills lost last three visits to Baltimore, by 14-12-3 points. Buffalo covered nine of last 11 openers; they’re 9-5 vs spread in last 14 road openers, winning three of last five SU. Ravens lost last two home openers after 9-0 streak prior to that- they’re 13-6 vs spread as a favorite in home openers. Rex Ryan became a HC because of success Raven defense had while he was there. Buffalo is 14-10-1 in last 25 games with spread of 3 or less points- they’re 6-16-2 vs spread in last 24 non-divisional road tilts. Over is 4-1 in Bills’ last five road openers, 5-2 in Baltimore’s last seven home openers. Chicago @ Houston– Osweiler is 5-2 as an NFL starter; he makes his Houston debut here. Texans are 7-3...

Carolina @ Denver– Super Bowl winners are 7-3-3 vs spread in Week 1 the following year; Super Bowl losers are 2-11 vs spread in season openers the following year. Broncos do look lot different, with Siemian at QB; they’re 15-1 SU in last 16 home openers, 18-8-1 vs spread in last 27, 5-3 vs spread in last eight season openers. Since ’12, Carolina is 5-9 vs spread as a road favorite; they lost 34-0/20-17 in only visits here, with last one in ’04- they’ve lost four of five overall vs Broncos. Panthers won last two road openers; they’re 10-5 vs spread in last 15 road openers, with three of last four staying under total. Denver is 5-7 vs spread as home underdog since 2010. This is the first Week 1 Super Bowl rematch since...

Seahawks (10-6) @ Vikings (11-5)– Frigid conditions expected for last outdoor home game in Twin Cities. Seattle (-3) crushed Vikings 38-7 here in Week 13, outgaining them 433-125 in epic mismatch- only Minny TD came on KR when it was 38-0. Seahawks won/covered seven of last eight games, winning last five road games by average score of 28-7. Seattle has allowed one offensive TD on last 49 drives on road. Vikings are 13-3 vs spread this season; they won last three games by average of 36-16. Carroll is 8-5 in playoff games; Seattle won NFC last two years. This is Zimmer’s first playoff game as a head coach. NFC 3-seed won this game six of last nine years (favorites 5-3 vs spread last eight). Vikings are in playoffs for first time in three years; their last playoff win was in ’09. Packers (10-6) @ Redskins (9-7)– Washington won/covered its last four games, with three of four on road; Redskins won six of last seven home games. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games, 2-6 in Packers’ last eight. Rodgers was sacked 14 times in last two games, losses by 38-8/20-13 scores- they’re expected to get LT Bakhtiari back here. Green Bay won five of last six series games; their last visit here was OT loss in 2010. McCarthy is 7-6 in playoff games; four of wins came in 2010, when Pack won Super Bowl. This is Gruden’s first NFL playoff game; he won two Arena Bowl titles in the AFL. NFC 4-seed won this game five of last seven years. favorites covered this game last four years. For record, 1967 Packers and 2009 Saints are only Super Bowl winners who lost last two regular season...

Chiefs (11-5) @ Texans (9-7)– Kansas City won last 10 games after 1-5 start; only win was 27-20 (+1) here in season opener- two of its three TD drives in that game were less than 20 yards (+2 TO ratio). KC won field position by 21 yards; four of 13 drives started in Texan territory. Texans are 7-2 in last nine games after 2-5 start; they’re in playoffs for first time since 2012- seven of their last eight games stayed under total, as have three of last four KC games. Chiefs are 4-3 overall in series, going 3-2 in five visits here. Home side won 4-5 game in AFC last four years; favorites covered four of last five. This is O’Brien’s first playoff tilt as a head coach; he was an assistant at New England, so he’s been around the playoffs. Reid is 10-10 in playoff games, 0-3 since 2009. Steelers (10-6) @ Bengals (12-4)– Marvin Lewis is 112-100-2 as Bengals’ coach, but 0-6 in playoff games, 0-4 last four years. Cincy QB Dalton (thumb) is out here, so McCarron is Bengal starter- he’s started three (2-1) NFL games. Road team won both series games this year; Bengals (even) won 16-10 at Heinz in Week 8. Steelers (+2.5) won 33-20 here in Week 14, in game where Dalton hurt his thumb. Pitt won four of last five series games overall, are 4-1 in last five visits here. Bengals split last eight games after an 8-0 start. Steelers are 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five games- they lost three of last five road games. AFC 6-seed won this game five of last seven years. Tomlin is 5-4 in playoff games but his last win was in 2010. Pitt won 31-17 here in ’05 playoff...