NFL Betting Trends & Systems

Jets (10-5) @ Bills (7-8)– Jets make playoffs with a win, but they’ve lost five of last six games with Buffalo, losing last three visits here by 19-23-35 points. Jets lost at home to Bills 22-17 (-2.5) in Week 10, thanks to -4 turnover ratio that included a TD on a fumbled kick return. Jets are +18 in turnovers in their wins, -13 in losses; they won/covered last five games, including OT win over Patriots LW. Jets lost three of five true road games (played “at” Giants, vs Miami in London); they’re 6-5 as faves, 1-2 on road. Buffalo lost four of last six games but has won three in row at home, by 16-9-10 points; they’re 3-2-1 as underdogs, 1-1 t home. Five of last seven Jet games stayed under total. Buccaneers (6-9) @ Panthers (14-1)– Carolina lost first game LW, has next week off thanks to its bye; unsure how many starters they’ll rest here. Panthers (-3) scored two defensive TDs in 37-23 (-3) win at Tampa Bay in Week 4, its 7th win in last nine game vs Bucs, who have lost five of last seven visits here, last two by 19-2 points. Tampa lost four of its last five games (-7 turnover ratio); they’re 4-3 as road dogs, but lost 25-12/31-23 in last two road games. Bucs’ defense has one takeaway in its last five games. Carolina gave up 30+ points in three of last four games; they’re 4-2 as home faves- four of their last five games were on road. Six of last nine Carolina games went over the total. Patriots (12-3) @ Dolphins (5-10)– New England is 2-3 in last five games after 10-0 start; they need win here for bye next week, home field thru AFC playoffs. Patriots (-8) pounded Miami 36-7 back in Week 8, outgaining Fish 437-270 in game that was 19-0 at half. Dolphins lost seven of last nine games (1-8 vs spread), losing its last three games by 7-16-6 points- they’re 2-4 at home, losing by 27-10-7-6 points. Now the wife of a defensive player is ripping QB Taneyhill on Twitter- not good. Home side won last six series games; Patriots lost 24-20/33-20 in last two visits here- they are 9-2 in last 11 series games overall. Under is 5-2 in last seven Miami games, 1-4 in last four Patriot games. Ravens (5-10) @ Bengals (11-4)– McCarron sprained left wrist Monday nite on last play, is expected to play; Bengals could still get bye next week, so they need to win this game, against team they beat 28-24 (+2.5) in Week 3. Bengals led 14-0 at half, averaged 10.9 ypa, had 15-yard edge in field position. Ravens lost five of last six in series, losing last three visits here by 6-17-3 points. Baltimore got boost from new QB Mallett LW, 4th QB they started in last six games. Ravens covered last three on road; their only two SU road wins were division games at Pitt/Cleveland. Under is 7-2 in last nine Bengal games, 4-2-1 in last seven Baltimore games. Bengals lost two of last three at home, but are 4-2-1 as home favorites. Saints (6-9) @ Falcons (8-7)– Atlanta won last two games, allowing 15 ppg but 1-7 skid doomed their season, a skid that started with 31-21 (-3) loss to Saints at home in Week 6, when Falcons lost three fumbles and had punt blocked for TD. Saints are 15-5 in last 20 games in this rivalry, 6-3 in last nine visits here; they’ve allowed 43 TD passes this year, three more than any team, ever. NO is 2-5 on road, 3-3 as a road underdog- they won two of last three games, covered three of last four. Over is 8-3 in last 11 Saint games, 0-9 in Falcons’ last nine. Falcons failed to cover seven games in row as a favorite- they’re 1-4 as home favorites. Atlanta converted 15 of 29 on third down in last two games. This is an underrated rivalry game. Jaguars (5-10) @ Texans (8-7)– Houston makes playoffs unless nine things happen Sunday; they’ve won six of last eight games after a 2-5 start, winning last two with #5 QB Weeden playing (33-54/352 in two games). Texans (+2) won 31-20 in Week 6 at Jacksonville, picking off three passes (+3) one of which was run back for TD. Jax lost four of last five games, are 4-3 as road underdogs. Texans are 3-3 as favorites this year; they ran ball for 283 yards last two weeks- they’re +10 in turnovers in last ten games, after being -8 in first five games. Over is 4-1 in last five Jaguar games, 1-7 in last eight Houston games. Jags lost four of last five visits here; last three were all decided by 7 or less points. Hoyer is healthy again, will start at QB for Texans. Steelers (9-6) @ Browns (3-12)– Pitt needs win here and Bills win to make playoffs; they beat Browns 30-9 (-4.5) in Week 10, throwing for 399 yards (10.5 yp) in game that was 21-3 at half. Steelers are 27-5 vs Cleveland, but lost two of last three here; they lost three of last four road games, are 5-2 as favorite this year, 1-1 on foreign soil. Browns lost nine of last ten games, covered two of last three; they covered once in last seven games as an underdog- their only recent win was 24-10 vs 49ers. Browns have two TDs on 25 drives last three losses, by 34-17-4 points. Four of last five Steeler games went over total; six of last seven Cleveland games stayed under. Manziel is in concussion protocol; Austin Davis likely to start at QB for Browns. Raiders (7-8) @ Chiefs (10-5)– KC is in playoffs, can still win AFC West, Oakland has shot for a .500 season- this is a big rivalry. Chiefs won last nine games (7-2 vs spread) after 1-5 start- they’re 2-4 as home favorites- failing to cover last two home games despite...

Bears (5-8) @ Vikings (8-5)– Minnesota scored 10 points in last 1:49 to nip Bears 23-20 in Chicago in Week 8 (-1), first road series win in last seven meetings. Bears lost last three in Minnesota by 7-3-4 points. Four of last five series games were decided by 4 or less points. Nine of Bears’ last ten games were decided by 6 or less points; Chicago won last three road games, is 5-0 vs spread on road with Cutler at QB (Clausen lost 26-0 at Seattle). Vikings are 1-3 in last four games- the lost last two home tilts by combined 68-20. Home teams are 1-8 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year. Minnesota is 10-3 vs spread this year, 4-1 as home favorite; they’ve had three extra days since Thursday loss to Arizona. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Minnesota games. Falcons (6-7) @ Jaguars (5-8)– Free-falling Atlanta lost seven of eight games since starting 5-0; Jaguars are 4-3 in last seven games after 1-5 start- they’re only game out of first place in hideous AFC South. Jags outscored Indy 42-3 in second half Sunday;the average total in their last three games is 68. Jax is 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven games; they’re 3-3 at home, 1-2 as home favorites. Falcons are 2-1 as underdogs; they’re 0-9 vs spread last nine weeks. AFC South non-divisional home favorites are 3-5 vs spread; NFC South road underdogs are 5-5. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread week after playing Carolina; favorites are 0-4-2 week after playing J’ville. Last seven Atlanta games stayed under total; over is 9-3 in last dozen Jaguar games. If you value positive/negative momentum, Jaguars are the side for you. Texans (6-7) @ Colts (6-7)– Indy (+5) won 27-20 at Houston in Week 5, thanks to plus-2 turnover ratio and Texans scoring one TD on three red zone drives. Colts won last six series games; Texans are 0-13 in Indy, losing last three visits here by 12-22-7 points. QB issues on both sides; could be TJ Yates vs Charlie Whitehurst in game with division lead on line. Colts lost 45-10/51-16 last two games; they were outscored 42-3 in second half Sunday by Jags. Indy is 3-3 at home, winning by 3-13-3 points (1-3 as home favorite). Houston lost 30-21/27-6 last two games; they’re 2-4 as road underdogs, with all four losses by 7+ points. Teams are 3-6 week after playing Jaguars. Six of last nine Indy games went over total; five of last six Houston games stayed under. Chiefs (8-5) @ Ravens (4-9)– Streaking KC is first team since 1970 to win seven in a row after losing five in row; Chiefs won last three road games, all by 14+- they’re 5-3 vs spread as favorite. Teams are 7-2-1 vs spread week after playing San Diego. 11 of 13 Raven games were decided by 6 or less points; 2-4 at home, with three losses by 4 or less- they’re 3-2 as underdogs, 0-1 at home. Baltimore won three of last four games in series where visitor won six of last seven meetings. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-10 vs spread, 2-4 on road; AFC North underdogs are 8-7-1, 2-2 at home. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Raven games; over is 4-2-1 in KC road games. If Clausen is starting again, keep in mind he’s started two games this year, both vs Seattle, losing 26-0/35-6. Bills (6-7) @ Redskins (6-7)– Buffalo is on road for fifth time in last six weeks; they’ve lost three in row on road, by 7-8-3 points. Bills won last six games with Redskins, last of which was a 23-0 win in Toronto. Last home game for Washington team that is 5-2 at home, losing last one to Dallas; Skins are tied for first in NFC Least, finish with Iggles/Dallas. Buffalo’s defense allowed five TDs, two FGs on foes’ first drive of second half; only Colts have given up more points. Redskins allowed 71.3 rushing ypg last three weeks; Buffalo has run ball for 156 ypg last three weeks but has struggled on red zone. NFC East non-divisional home teams are 6-10 vs spread, AFC East road teams 7-7. Under is 5-2 in Redskin home games, 4-1 in last five Buffalo road games. Titans (3-10) @ Patriots (11-2)– New England is #1 seed in AFC right now; they close at Jets/Miami, get home field thru playoffs if they win out. Patriots won last five games with Tennessee, last three all by 17+ points. This is 11th time in 14 games Pats are favored by 7+ points (4-3-3 as favorite of 7+)- they’re 3-1-3 as home favorites. Tennessee was in tank at Swamp Sunday, trailing 27-0 at half; Titans are 3-3 as road dogs; three of four losses on road were by 14+ points. Tennessee scored 34+ in each of its three wins; they’re 1-8 vs the spread when scoring less than 33 points. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Tennessee games, 5-2 in last seven Patriot tilts. In last five games, Tennessee started 38 drives 80+ yards from goal line, their opponents 20- they’re getting killed in field position battle. Cardinals (10-2) @ Eagles (6-7)– Arizona won last seven games, clinches NFC West title with win here; Redbirds won last seven games, but covered one of last four- they’re 4-2 as road favorites. Eagles scored 35-23 points in winning last two games; they’re 6-1 if they score 23+ points, 0-6 if they don’t. Arizona allowed 23+ in five of 13 games, none of last three. Cardinals had -3 turnover ratio in both losses this year. West non-divisional favorites are 9-9 vs spread, 5-3 on road; NFC East underdogs are 8-13, 4-5 at home. Last three Cardinal games stayed under total; three of last four Philly games went over. Arizona won four of last five series games; home side is 7-1 in last eight in series. Panthers (13-0) @ Giants (6-7)– Unbeaten Carolina is 5-4 vs Giants; last four in series were decided by...

Ravens (3-7) @ Browns (2-8)– Since coming back to NFL in ’99, Cleveland is 4-0 against spread as a post-bye favorite, but lost three of last four post-bye games overall. McCown is back at QB for Cleveland; Davis backs him up after Manziel threw for 372 yards in loss at Pittsburgh before the bye, but then went off wagon in Texas during bye week. Flacco is out for year (knee) so Schaub (46-44 as NFL starter, last start in ’13) gets first Ravens start- all ten Baltimore games have been decided by 8 or less points. Baltimore also lost Forsett in last game; they’re 1-4 on road and were favored in three of five games. Under is 3-1 in last four games for both sides. Cleveland lost last five games, scoring 11.3 ppg in last four after tough OT loss at home to then-undefeated...

Lions (1-7) @ Packers (6-2)– Lions lost last 24 games in Wisconsin; their last win here was in 1991; this is first game for Detroit since firing GM/Prez; they also fired OC/OL coaches before loss to Chiefs in London, so they’re in disarray. Green Bay lost to Broncos/Panthers last two weeks, but they’re 15-1 combined; Packers are 3-1 as home favorites, with wins by 10-10-14-7 points. Green Bay won 16 of last 19 games overall vs Detroit, but they were outsacked 8-0 the last two weeks. Detroit is 7-4 (8-3 vs spread) in last 11 post-bye games. Teams are 6-0 SU/ATS week after playing Carolina (were favored in four of six). Detroit is -11 in turnovers their last four games, all of which went over total; four of last five Packer games stayed under the total. Cowboys (2-6) @ Buccaneers (3-5)– Dallas is 0-6 since Romo got hurt; he may come back next week. Cassel played well enough to win vs Philly, but defense got gassed. Dallas has played two OT games- its offense didn’t get on field in either OT. Pokes are 13-3 in last 16 games vs Tampa Bay, winning last five, three by 13+ points. Bucs are 1-3 at home, giving up 31+ points in all four games; they’re +7 in turnovers in three wins, -6 in losses- they were outscored 56-25 in second half of last three games. Cowboys are 2-5 vs spread as an underdog, 1-2 on road. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 4-7 vs spread, 2-4 on road; NFC South favorites are 8-6, 5-4 at home. Teams are 5-2 vs spread week after playing Philly, 6-2 after playing the Giants. Four of last five Tampa Bay games went over total. Panthers (8-0) @ Titans (2-6)– Trap game for unbeaten Carolina after a pair of primetime wins; Panthers allowed 22+ points in five of last six games- they’re 3-0 on road, scoring an average of 28 ppg. Tennessee scored 13 or less points in four of last five games; they’re 0-4 at home, Titans won last three series games, by 13-20-27 points; this is Panthers’ first visit here since ’07. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 8-6, 3-2 on road; AFC South home underdogs are 4-1 vs spread. Five of last six Carolina games went over total, as have five of six Titan games that Mariota started. Carolina averaged 152 rushing ypg in last four games. Teams are 1-5 SU the week after playing Green Bay; the only win was by Seattle against the Clausen-led Bears- teams are 5-3 SU after playing the Saints. Bears (3-5) @ Rams (4-4)– Chicago won in San Diego late Monday night, they’ve won four of last five games vs St Louis, winning two of last three visits here. Bears covered all three road games that Cutler played- their last five games were all decided by three or less points. Rams allowed two offensive TDs in four home games, winning three of them; they signed Welker this week to bolster offense that is just 18 of 90 (20%) on third down in last seven games. Teams are 5-1 vs spread the week after playing San Diego (all as dogs); favorites are 2-1 week after playing Minnesota. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-6 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs 4-3. Six of last seven Ram games, four of last six Chicago games stayed under total. Saints (4-5) @ Redskins (3-5)– New Orleans lost 27-22/39-17 in only two outdoor games this season, lost 31-19 at Arizona in only other grass game; they allowed 83 points in last two games, could be tired- its bye is next week. Washington won its last three home games, scoring 26 ppg, but they struggle running ball– in last four games, Skins ran ball 75 times for 172 yards. Redskins won three of last four games against the Saints, last five series tilts were decided by 8 or less points. Seven of last eight series totals were 44+. Saints defense is having trouble getting off field; in last three games, opponents are 23-42 on 3rd down. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 4-7 vs spread, 2-3 at home. Four of last five Saint games went over the total. Dolphins (3-5) @ Eagles (4-4)– Third week in row on road for Miami squad that allowed 266 rushing yards last week in Buffalo; they’re going to get more of same from Philly team that ran ball for 172.5 ypg in its last four games. Dolphins are just 7-29 on third down last three games; they were outscored 38-7 in first half last two weeks, after leading 41-0 at half vs Houston in Week 7. Eagles won last three series games, by 7-10-16 points; this is first visit here for Fish since ’07. NFC non-divisional favorites are 2-4 vs spread, 1-3 at home; AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 3-1. Miami’s last four losses are all by 13+ points. Teams are 1-4 vs spread week after playing Buffalo. Five of last seven Miami games went over total; six of eight Philly games stayed under. Browns (2-7) @ Steelers (5-4)– Backup QB Jones gets start here for Pitt, which won eight of last ten vs Browns, who lost last ten visits here- six of their last seven visits here were losses by 10+ points. Jones has averaged 9.7 ypa in 47 passes, winning home games with Cards/Raiders in relief- he lost only start, vs Bengals. McCown is expected to return here for Browns, who lost four games in row, last three by 14+ each- they’re 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 21-3-18-21, with win at Baltimore. Pitt is 4-0 if it scores 24+, 1-4 if it doesn’t; they’re 3-2 SU at home, 1-1 as home faves. Steelers ran ball for 153.5 ypg in last six games. Over is 7-2 in Cleveland games, 1-6 in last seven Steeler games. Favorites are 1-3 vs spread week after playing Oakland. Jaguars (2-6) @ Ravens (2-6)– Baltimore won/covered 11 of last 13 post-bye games (8-1 last...

Colts (3-4) @ Panthers (6-0)– Indy is house divided with lame-duck coach; all three of its wins are vs bad division rivals, with two of three on road. Colts are 2-0 as underdogs this season, they’re 5-4 in last nine games as road underdog. Carolina won four of last five series games; visitors won four of those five. Indy split pair here; last visit was in ’07. Carolina is 6-0, with home wins by 7-5-11 points; they’ve run ball for 152.6 ypg in last five tilts. NFC South teams are 8-3 as non-divisional favorites, 5-2 at home; AFC South road dogs are 1-5. Panthers are 9-3-2 vs spread in last 14 games as home favorite; they scored 10+ points in 11 of 12 halves this season- consistent. Three of last four Carolina games went over total. Luck has apparently been playing last few weeks with broken ribs–...

Bills (3-3) vs Jaguars (1-5) (@ London)– This is third year in row Jaguars played a home game in London; they lost 42-10/31-17 here last two years. Buffalo won every other week so far; they gave up 14 or less points in all three wins, 24+ in all three losses, but struggled with Manuel at QB LW, in place of injured Taylor. Underdogs covered four of their five games that had a favorite. Bills are 7-6 in series, winning last two games by 16-7; Bills are 4-2 in last six visits here, winning 27-20 in last visit here, in ’13. Jaguars lost their last four games; they are 4-7-1 in last 12 games as road underdog, allowing 35 ppg this year in road losses by 34-3-7 points- they allowed a defensive TD in last two games and three of six. Browns (2-4) @ Rams (2-3)– Cleveland’s last three games were all decided by 3 points on last play of game, with Browns losing twice; they’re 10-3 as underdogs with Pettine, 7-2-1 on road- they allowed 30+ points in all three road games so far. St Louis scored 24-34 in its two wins, 10 or less in three losses; Rams’ two wins this year are by total of five points- they’re 6-2 vs spread in last eight post-bye games- they were dogs in seven of them (1-0 as F); they’re 5-6 as home favorites under Fisher (0-0 in ’15). NFC North teams are 10-5-1 vs spread outside their division; NFC West teams are 7-9, 4-4 as favorites. Rams won three of four series games, with Browns splitting pair here, with last visit to Golden Arch in 2007. Steelers (4-2) @ Chiefs (1-5)– KC lost RB Charles, has QB who can’t stretch field; they’ve lost last five games, 17-10 points in last two games- they’re 0-2 at home, blowing both in last minute. Pitt won its last two games, scoring 24-25 points using backup QBs in both games; Jones gave offense balance LW in 25-13 win over Arizona (8-12/168 thru air)- they scored last five times (two TDs, three FGs) they had ball. Since ’07, Steelers are 14-23-1 as road favorites, 1-0 this year. KC scored total of 34 points in losing last three series games; they kicked three FGs on four red zone drives in 20-12 loss at Heinz Field LY. Last four Pittsburgh games stayed under total. Since 2010, Chiefs are 10-5 vs spread as a home dog. Texans (2-4) @ Dolphins (2-3)– Miami got interim coach Campbell off to good start LW in Nashville, running ball for 180 yards after averaging 79.3 in first four games- defense had six sacks, four takeaways vs rookie QB. Dolphins lost last seven games vs Houston, with four of seven losses by 3 or less points. Texans won last three visits here by 1-7-10; they were +3 in turnovers last week, after being -8 in first five games. Miami lost its only home game 41-14 to Buffalo; since ’07, they’re 10-25 as home favorite. Since 2010, Houston is 10-13-1 as road underdog (1-2 this year). AFC South teams are 1-6 vs spread on road vs non-divisional foes. Last three Houston games, three of last four Miami games went over. Jets (4-1) @ Patriots (5-0)– NE won seven of last eight series games; five of last six were decided by 3 or less points; Jets lost last four visits here by 9-3-3-2 points. Three of five Patriot TD drives in LY’s games were less than 50 yards; Jets were 14-29 on third down in the two games. Gang Green is 8-11-2 in last 21 games as road dog, but since ’07, Jets are 12-5 as a divisional road dog. Last eight years, Patriots are 11-13 as home favorite vs AFC East foes. NE outscored last three opponents 62-23 in second half. Jets ran ball for 221-207 yards last two games. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 4-14 vs spread, 0-8 in AFC. Three of last four Jet games stayed under; three of last four Patriot games went over. Vikings (3-2) @ Lions (1-5)– Minnesota is 3-0 at home, 0-2 on road; they ran ball for 199 yards in 26-16 (-2.5) home win over Lions back in Week 2 (Detroit dropped back to pass 54 times, ran it 16). Vikings lost four of last five visits here, losing by 7-6-10-2. Lions got first win last week, in OT vs Bears; they allowed 76 points last two games, have given up 7.3+ ypa in each of last five games. Detroit is 1-4-1 in last six games as home underdog; Minnesota is 0-3 as road favorite the last 4+ years, 5-10 in NFC North road games last five seasons. Vikings are 14-6 in last 20 games where spread was 3 or less points; Lions are 3-9 in last 12 such games. Minnesota lost eight of last nine road games, with only win in OT at Tampa Bay last October. Falcons (5-1) @ Titans (2-4)– LSU alum Mettenberger (0-6 as starter LY) gets start here for Mariota (sprained MCL). Atlanta trailed in 4th quarter in four of its five wins; its not like they’ve been dominant during 5-1 start. This is Falcons’ second outdoor game, first on natural grass this season- they’re 7-8-1 in last 16 games as road fave. Tennessee is playing 4th home game in row with a bye in between; they haven’t been on road since Week 2, losing last four games, scoring 13-10 in last two games (two TDs on 21 drives). Titans are 2-7-1 in last ten games as a home dog. Four of five Titan games, three of last four Atlanta games went over total. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 7-2 vs spread, 3-0 on road. AFC South teams are 4-9 outside division, 2-1 if a home dog. Titans won five of last six in this series; Falcons’ only win at Oilers/titans came in Houston, in 1981 Buccaneers (2-3) @ Redskins (2-4)– Tampa scored 26-38 points in its two wins, 15.3 in its...

Seahawks (2-4) @ 49ers (2-4)– Seattle blew 4th quarter lead in each of its last four losses; they’ve been outscored by 34 points in 4th quarter this year, but they’re 5-1 in last six vs 49ers, with four of five wins by 10+ points. Seahawks are 0-3 on road, giving up average of 29.3 ppg; they’re 2-4 in last six games as road favorite. Since ’09, 49ers are 4-1-1 as home underdogs, 2-1 this year; Niners are giving up 13.3 ppg at home, 40 ppg on the road; they passed for 682 yards last two games (171.3 ypg first four). Primetime dogs are 12-6 vs the spread this season. Divisional home underdogs are 4-4. Four of last five 49er games went over the total. Seattle swept 49ers LY, 17-7/19-3, converting on 13-28 third down...

Broncos (5-0) @ Browns (2-3)– Unbeaten Broncos already won two games where offense didn’t score TD; three of their five wins are by 6 or less points- they’re 8-34 on 3rd down in last three games, as fading Manning has managed games while defense is winning them. Denver won last six series games, with four of six wins by 10+ points; their last visit here was in ’08. Browns threw for 1,078 yards in last three games. 422 yards in rare win Sunday at Baltimore last week; McCown has established himself as #1 QB. Last two Brown games came down to FG on last play; since ’12, they’re 8-5 as home dogs. AFC North teams are 7-4-1 vs spread out of division. AFC West teams are 6-10 vs spread, 3-5 when favored. Bengals (5-0) @ Bills (3-2)– Cincinnati is unbeaten (4-0-1 vs spread) after OT win over Seattle, scoring 24+ points every game; they’re 27-13-2 vs spread in last 42 games where spread was 3 or less points. Bengals won last two games with Buffalo by FG each, after losing previous ten meetings; they’re 2-8 in last ten visits here. Bills scored only 24 points in last two games, after averaging 33.3 ppg in first three; only two QBs to beat Buffalo this year both won multiple Super Bowls (Brady/Manning). Cincinnati came back from down 17 in 4th quarter Sunday, first NFL team in 428 such games to do that. Bills are 12-8 in last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points. Four of five Bengal games went over total. AFC East teams are 6-3-1 vs spread out of division. Buffalo QB Taylor (MCL) may not play here; former starter Manuel would take his place- they’ll regret trading Matt Cassel. Chiefs (1-4) @ Vikings (2-2)– Chiefs lost last four games, giving up 74 points in losing last two road tilts; now star RB Charles is gone and QB Smith doesn’t throw ball well enough to carry offense. In last two games, Chiefs, have one TD, nine FGs; they’ve been outscored 37-9 in second half. Minnesota lost its last five post-bye games, with eight points closest loss; Vikings are 5-2 as home favorites under Zimmer, 4-0 outside NFC North. Home side won six of last seven series games; Chiefs are here for first time since ’03. KC is 7-5 as road dog under Reid, 1-2 this year. Four of five Chief games went over total. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 3-5 vs spread; NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-0. Texans (1-4) @ Jaguars (1-4)– Houston won seven of last nine series games; four of last five were decided by 7 or less points. Texans won three of last four visits here, but are 0-2 on road this year, allowing 36 ppg- they’re -8 in turnovers for season, and neither QB has played well enough to win games. Last three weeks, Jaguar foes are 23-50 on third down; they just played three straight road games, are 1-1 at home. Since ’11, Houston is 11-7-1 as road favorite, but they’re 4-11-1 in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less points. Since ’09, Jaguars are 9-24-1 as a home underdog; they’re 6-11 in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less. Under is 20-13 in last 33 Jax home games. Divisional home dogs are 3-4 this season. Bears (2-3) @ Lions (0-5)– Chicago just posted consecutive comeback last-minute wins for first time since 1962; Bears lost last four games with Detroit, three by 8 or less points. Chicago lost three of last four visits here, losing by 11-8-17 points; Bears are 7-14 in last 21 NFC North road games, 9-15-1 as road dog since ’11- since ’12, they’re 7-17-2 in games with spread of 3 or less. Last three Bear games, three of last four Lion games stayed under total. Lions scored 13.8 ppg in last four games; they’re 5-2-1 in last eight as home favorite, 7-3 as NFC North home fave, but 8-12-1 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less. Over is 15-11 in Detroit’s last 26 home games. Chicago’s three losses: Packers-Cardinals-Seattle, three of best teams in league. Redskins (2-3) @ Jets (3-1)– Washington making second visit to Swamp this season; they lost 32-21 (+3) to Giants here in Week 3 Thursday game. Redskins played nailbiters last two weeks, beating Philly in last minute, losing in OT at Atlanta; they’re 8-2 against Jets, winning last four played here. Since ’07, Washington is 30-46-7 vs spread in non-division games; since ’13, they’re 5-11 as road underdogs. Jets lost four of last five post-bye games; since ’07, they’re 19-28-1 as home favorite. Gang Green is +9 in turnovers in its wins, -3 in one loss; Washington has five takeaways in last two games, after having only two in first three weeks. Last three Jet games, four of five Redskin games stayed under total. AFC East teams are 6-3-1 vs spread out of division; NFC East teams are 4-7. Cardinals (4-1) @ Steelers (3-2)– Pttsburgh fired Bruce Arians as OC after the ’11 season, over objections of Big Ben; he returns here with a 25-12 record as HC of Arizona team that scored 90 points winning first two road games (12 TDs on 21 drives). Cardinals are 5-1 as home favorite since ’13, 15-6-1 in last 22 non-divisional road games. All five Arizona tilts this season went over total. Pittsburgh escaped San Diego with last-second win Monday nite; they’re 8-3 in last 11 games with Arizona, winning last two here. Redbirds’ last win in Steel City was in 1969. Since ’07, Steelers are 5-1-1 as home dogs; they’re 6-1 in last seven games following an upset win. Over is 10-4 in Pittsburgh’s last 14 home games. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 4-2 vs spread. Dolphins (1-3) @ Titans (1-3)– First game for Campbell as interim HC of Dolphins, who lost last three games, allowing 157 rushing yards/game with only one takeaway (-4 ratio). Since ’08, Miami...

Falcons (5-0) @ Saints (1-4)– Atlanta is 5-0 but trailed in 4th quarter in four of five games; they’re 5-13 in last 18 games with New Orleans, losing nine of last 11 visits here. Saints are -5 in turnovers, giving up 28.6 ppg (over 3-2)- they’re giving up 135.8 rushing yards/game. Over last 8+ years, NO is 1-2 as home dog; they’re 8-5 vs spread in last 13 home divisional games. Three of five Falcon wins are by 4 or less points or in OT; since ’10, they’re 12-8-1 as road favorite, 1-0 this year. Saints have yet to lead at half (0-4-1); team that won second half won all five of their games. Atlanta has three defensive TDs in last two games; they’re 3-8-1 vs spread in last 12 NFC South road games. Both NO home games stayed...