Browns (0-10) @ Bengals (4-6)— Cincy (-3) crushed Browns 31-7 in Cleveland in Week 4; they outgained Browns 350-215, their 6th straight series win. Browns lost last two visits to Cincy, by 31-10/31-17 scores. Cleveland is 2-8 vs spread this season, 0-3 as a road favorite, losing away games by 14-3-16-14 points. In their last five games, Browns are 18-68 on 3rd down. In their last five games, Bengals have run 27 less plays per game than their opponents- they’ve run ball for only 54 yards per game in their last six games. Cincy is 2-2 at home, 1-3 as a home favorite- their two home wins were by total of five points. Favorites are 4-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season. Over is 3-1 in Browns’ road games, 1-3 in Bengal home games. Cleveland gets WR Gordon back from suspension, which should be a big upgrade.
Bears (3-7) @ Eagles (9-1)— Eagles are on fire, winning last eight games, covering last seven; Philly is 4-1 as home favorites, with home wins by 3-27-10-23-28 points- they+8 in turnovers in their last five games. Chicago lost its last three games, by 8-7-3 points; they’re 2-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 22-21-8 points, with an OT win in Baltimore. Philly won two series games, 54-11/29-14; Bears’ last series win was in 2011- they won two of last three visits here. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; NFC North underdogs are 9-8, 4-4 on road. Over is 5-3 in last eight Eagle games, 3-2 in Chicago’s last five. Philly has 3-game lead in NFC East, so they need to guard against complacency, are going for home field edge in playoffs.
Dolphins (4-6) @ Patriots (8-2)— New England also has 3-game lead in AFC East; they’ve won their last six games (5-1 vs spread), are 2-3 as home favorites, with home wins by 3-16-8 points, and losses to Chiefs/Panthers. NE has lost field position battle in only one game, and that was by a yard. Miami lost its last four games, by 40-3-24-10 points; Dolphins are 1-3 as road underdogs this year- they have only two takeaways in last four games (-3), were outscored 108-37 in first half of last six games. Patriots won four of last five games with Miami; teams play again in two weeks. Dolphins lost their last eight visits to Foxboro. Home teams are 4-0-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Under is 5-1 in Patriots’ last six games.
Bills (5-5) @ Chiefs (6-4)— I’m assuming Taylor starts at QB; if Peterman starts, just bet on KC. Buffalo lost its last three games, giving up 101 points the last two weeks; Bills are -9 in turnovers in last three games, after being +14 in first seven. Buffalo is 2-2 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 6-4-13-30 points, with win in Atlanta. Chiefs lost four of last five games after a 5-0 start, still lead AFC West by couple games. KC is 3-1 as home favorites, winning by 7-9-10 points, with loss to the Steelers. Chiefs won last three series games, by 10-4-8 points; Bills’ last win here was in 2011. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-6 vs spread; AFC East road dogs are 5-5. Over is 5-3-2 in Chief games; last five Buffalo games also went over.
Buccaneers (4-6) @ Falcons (6-4)— Short week for Falcons after 34-31 win out in Seattle late Monday night. Atlanta won three of last four games, is 2-2 as home favorites, losing to Buffalo/Miami, winning other two by 11-20 points. Fitzpatrick starts at QB again for Bucs, who won last two games after a 5-game skid. Tampa Bay is 1-4 on road (won @ Miami), 1-1-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 17-5-3-20 points on foreign soil. Bucs are +7 in turnovers their last three games. Tampa Bay won three of last four series games, winning 23-19/31-24 in last two visits here. Average total in last eight series games, 56.0. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 9-12-2 vs spread. Under is 3-1 in Bucs’ last four games, 6-1 in last seven Falcon games.
Panthers (7-3) @ Jets (4-6)— Both teams are off their bye week; Carolina won 27-23/30-20 in its last two post-bye games, Jets lost six of last eight post-bye games. Carolina won/covered its last three games; they’re 4-1 on road, winning by 20-3-3-14 points- their only road loss was in Chicago, when Bear defense scored only two TD’s of the game. Jets lost four of their last five games; they’re last three losses were all by 5 or less points. Gang Green is 3-2 at home, losing to Patriots by 7, Falcons by 5- they’re 5-3-1 as an underdog. Teams split six meetings, with home side winning five of the six. Panthers lost both series meetings here, 48-21/17-6. NFC South non-divisional road favorites are 5-4 vs spread; AFC East underdogs are 7-7-1, 2-2-1 at home.
Titans (6-4) @ Colts (3-7)— Titans (-7) ended 11-game losing skid to Colts with 36-22 home win back in Week 6; Tennessee outgained Colts 473-297, but trailed 13-9 at half. Tennessee lost its last nine visits to Indy- their last win here was in 2007. Titans won four of last five games; they are 2-3 on road, scoring 17 or less points in four of those games- they’re 3-4-1 as favorites, 1-2 on road. Indy lost four of last five games but covered last three; Colts are 2-3 at home- four of those five games were decided by exactly three points. Colts are 10-2 vs spread in last dozen post-bye games. Four of Titans’ last five games went over total; under is 3-1 in Indy’s last four games. Home teams are 1-4 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season.
Seahawks (6-4) @ 49ers (1-9)— Short week for banged-up Seattle after 34-31 loss Monday night. Seahawks lost two of last three games, both by a FG- they won last three road games, by 6-17-6 points- they’re 2-4-1 as a favorite, 1-0-1 on road. 49ers won their last game before their bye- they are 1-4 at home, 2-3 as a home underdog, with home losses by 20-2-30-10 points. Seattle (-13) edged 49ers 12-9 back in Week 2; they outgained Niners 312-248- neither team averaged 5.0 yds/pass attempt. Seahawks won last eight series games, winning last three visits here, by 16-17-2 points. 49ers lost last four post-bye games, are 0-5 vs spread in last five. Under is 4-2 in Seattle’s last six road games; over is 4-2 in 49ers’ last six games.
Saints (8-2) @ Rams (7-3)— New Orleans won its last eight games after an 0-2 start; Saints are 3-1 in true road games, winning last three by 21-9-37 points. NO ran ball for 151+ yards in five of their last six games; they averaged 8+ yards/pass attempt in four of last five games. Rams’ best WR Woods (shoulder) is out for couple of weeks; LA is 2-2 at home this year- they won four of last five games overall, are 4-4 vs spread in games with spread of 4 or less points. Teams split last six meetings; Rams lost 49-21 in Superdome LY. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 3-3 vs spread; NFC South road underdogs are 3-2-1. Under is 4-1 in Saints’ road games, 3-1 in Rams’ last four games. Saints have 56 plays of 20+ yards, most in the NFL.
Jaguars (7-3) @ Cardinals (4-6)— Jaguars won last four games (3-1 vs spread); they’re 4-1 on road, with only loss at Jets- they’re 2-1 as road favorites. In the last six games. Jacksonville outscored foes 66-19 in 2nd half. Arizona lost three of last four games; they’re down to #3 QB Gabbert- their TD’s LW came on drives of 17-15-51 yards, all set up by defense/ST. Cardinals are 2-2 at home; they beat 49ers/Bucs by total of 8 points, lost to Dallas/Seattle. Teams split four series games, going 1-1 in each ballpark. Jags lost 27-14 in their last visit here, in 2013. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-6-1 vs spread, 1-2 on road; NFC West underdogs are 5-10, 2-3 at home. Jaguars’ last four games stayed under total; under is 7-2 in Cardinals’ last nine.
Broncos (3-7) @ Raiders (4-6)— Denver fired its OC, Oakland fired its DC, Paxton Lynch gets his 3rd NFL start at QB for Broncos; he was 1-1 as a starter LY, is Denver’s 3rd starting QB in 11 games. Denver’s last win was 16-10 (-3) over Oakland in Week 4, game Derek Carr got hurt in. Broncos lost its last six games (0-6 vs spread); they’re 0-4 on road (0-4 vs spread) losing by 10-21-10-28 points. Oakland lost six of its last eight games; they’re 2-2 at home, with last two decided by a single point. Broncos are 10-2 in last 12 games with Raiders; they won five of last six visits to the Black Hole. Raiders are only NFL team in 83 years to have zero INTs in their first 10 games. Over is 3-1 in last four games for both teams.
Packers (5-5) @ Steelers (8-2)— Green Bay scored 14.3 ppg in Hundley’s four starts, losing three of them, all by 9+ points. Pittsburgh won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); 3-1 at home, 3-1 as home favorite, with wins by 17-15-23 points and a loss to Jaguars. Green Bay lost four of last five games; they’re 2-2 on road, losing by 11 in Atlanta, 13 in Minnesota- they won in Dallas/Chicago. Steelers won four of last five series games, but loss was in Super Bowl eight years ago. Packers lost their last four visits here- their last win in Pittsburgh was back in 1970. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-4 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 4-4. Under is 8-2 in Steeler games this season; over is 6-3 in Packers’ last nine games.
Texans (4-6) @ Ravens (5-5)— Baltimore has five wins, three via shutout; four of their wins are against teams who started QB’s Kizer-Manuel-Hundley-Moore, backup types. Now they face Savage, who fits that same bill. Ravens are 0-3 in games decided by less than 13 points. Baltimore is 2-2 at home, 2-1 as home favorite. Houston lost three of last four games; they’re 1-3 on road, with losses by 3-3-26 points, 3-1 as road underdogs. Ravens are 7-2 vs Houston; home team won last five meetings. Ravens lost last two meetings here, 43-13/25-13. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-4 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 7-5 vs spread, 4-4 on road. Over is 6-2 in last eight Houston games, 5-1 in last six Baltimore games.