#NFL Week 5 Betting Trends
Ravens (2-2) @ Steelers (1-3)— Baltimore allowed 1,033 yards, 73 points in losing its last two games; in their last three games, Ravens allowed 7.7/7.9/10.5 yards/pass attempt- they’re 5-10-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog. Baltimore has run ball for 205.8 ypg; three of their four games went over. Pittsburgh had little resistance in its win Monday night; Steelers are 7-9 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite. Pitt still hasn’t run the ball for more than 81 yards in a game this year; they’ve converted only 12-44 third down plays, but haven’t allowed a first half TD in their last two games. Steelers won four of last five series games, but Ravens are 3-2 in last five visits to Steel City.
Bears (3-1) vs Raiders (2-2) (@ London)— Oakland traded LB Kahlil Mack to the Bears last summer; this is their first meeting since. Bears’ backup QB Daniel has been in NFL for 10 years, but this will be only his 5th NFL start (2-2)- he started two games LY. Chicago won its last three games, outscoring foes 44-6 in first half; they’re +7 in turnovers in those games. Under is 3-1 in Chicago games. Oakland split its first four games, scoring 10-14 in losses, 24-31 in wins- Raiders allowed 28-34-24 points in last three games. This is Oakland’s third straight road game, albeit a neutral site; Raiders are 9-17-2 ATS in last 28 games as a dog. Teams split 14 meetings overall.
Cardinals (0-3-1) @ Bengals (0-4)— How are the Bengals favored over anyone located south of Saskatchewan? Cincy is 0-4, scoring six TD’s on 45 drives, with 16 sacks allowed, 19 3/outs, and a -5 turnover ratio- they were outscored 48-13 in first half of their last three games. Brngals are 4-8 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite. Cardinals lost their last three games, and were down 24-6 in the game they tied; Redbirds are 5-3-1 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog. Murray has been sacked 20 times in his first four games. Arizona won three of last four series games, but lost six of seven visits here, wth last one in ’11- their last win in Cincy was in ‘07.
Jaguars (2-2) @ Panthers (2-2)— Battle of backup QB’s here. Jaguars split their two road games, which were decided by total of 3 points- they’re 10-8-1 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog. Jax ran ball for 269 yards in Denver LW; they’ve converted only 9 of last 38 third down plays, but are 3-0 ATS in Minshew’s starts. Carolina is 2-0 SU with Allen at QB; they’re 8-11 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite. Road team won all four Carolina games; they’ve turned ball over eight times in four games (-1). Teams split six meetings, with home side 4-2 in those games; Jaguars lost two of three visits here, with all three games decided by six or fewer points.
Vikings (2-2) @ Giants (2-2)— Vikings are 0-2 on road, scoring 16-6 points, turning ball over six times (-4); they ran ball for 193.7 yards/game in Weeks 1-3, but were held to 40 YR in Chicago LW. Minnesota is 10-6 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite. Giants are 2-0 with rookie QB Jones starting, scoring 32-24 points; they covered once in their last seven games as a home underdog. Big Blue was 5-23 on 3rd down in Weeks 1-2; they’re 14-26 in Jones’ two starts. Minnesota won six of last eight series games, last five of which were decided by 16+ points. Vikings won four of last six visits here; last one was in 2013.
Patriots (4-0) @ Redskins (0-4)— Over last 20 years. favorites are 5-2 ATS in Week 5 games if an unbeaten team plays a winless team. Patriots won last three series games by 45-7-17 points; they won 34-27 in last visit here, back in 2011. New England has been awesome so far, allowing one TD on 48 drives; three of their four wins are by 16+ points. NE has eight takeaways in two road wins (+6); they’re 4-6 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite. Redskins are overmatched here; their QB’s are awful- Skins scored 3 points LW vs a Giant defense that allowed 31.3 ppg in Weeks 1-3. Washington was outscored 45-6 in first half of its last two games.
Jets (0-3) @ Eagles (2-2)— Darnold (mono) is a ??? here; his conditioning can’t be good. Jets lost eight of last ten post-bye games (3-7 ATS); they started three different QB’s in their losses this year- Falk likely gets his 2nd NFL start here. Jets are 7-12-2 ATS in last 21 games as a road dog, 1-0 this year. Eagles split their first four games, all decided by 7 or fewer points; they’re 2-8 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite. Three of their four games went over the total. Eagles have converted 32-57 third down plays this year. Philly won last 10 series games by average score of 27-17; Jets lost last five trips here, with last one in 2011.
Buccaneers (2-2) @ Saints (3-1)— Tampa Bay had 28 points at halftime in each of its last two games; they gained 499-464 TY the last two weeks, averaging 8.7 yards/pass attempt in both games, but Bucs have also allowed 31+ points in three games this year. TB was outscored 75-50 in 2nd half of games so far, but Arians is helping Winston thrive at QB. Saints are 2-0 in Bridgewater’s starts, they held Dallas to 45 YR LW after Cowboys had run for 179 yards/game in Weeks 1-3. Since 2014, NO is 12-21-1 ATS as a home favorite. Teams split last eight series games, splitting last four games in each stadium.
Falcons (1-3) @ Texans (2-2)— Atlanta lost its first two road tilts by 16-3 points; they’re 1-8 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog, 0-12 ATS in last dozen games vs AFC opponents. Falcons are averaging only 70.3 rushing yards/game; they were outscored 44-10 in first half of last two games. Houston split its first four games, all decided by 7 or fewer points; road team covered all four of their games- they scored only two TD’s on 20 drives in their home games. Texans are 3-7 ATS in last 10 games as home favorites. Home side won last four Falcon-Texan games, with Atlanta losing 17-13/17-10 in last two visits here.
Bills (3-1) @ Titans (2-2)— Tennessee gets star LT Lewan back from suspension here, which is a big help for their OL; Titans converted 14-30 3rd down plays in last two games, after being 3-20 on 3rd down in Weeks 1-2. Under Vrabel, Tennessee is 1-3 as a home favorite. Buffalo lost tough 16-10 home game to New England LW; QB Allen is banged up, Barkley (2-5 as NFL starter) gets nod if Allen can’t go. Under McDermott, Buffalo is 8-6-1 ATS as a road underdog, 6-4-1 in games wth spread of 3 or fewer points. Last three series games were decided by one point each, with Buffalo winning last two; Bills lost four of last five visits to Nashville.
Broncos (0-4) @ Chargers (2-2)— Denver lost its first four games, losing road games by 8-11 points; they lost their two home games on last-second FG’s. Broncos blew 17-6 halftime lead LW; they’re 4-9 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog. Banged-up Chargers led all four games at halftime; they’re 2-7 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite, 0-2 this year. Bolts are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 AFC West home games. Melvin Gordon figures to get some action at RB for Chargers, after he ended his holdout. Teams split last six series games; Denver scored 13-0-9 points in last three series losses. Teams split last four series games in SD/Carson.
Packers (2-2) @ Cowboys (3-1)— Green Bay won seven of last eight series games (2-0 in playoff games), winning last three visits here, 37-36/34-31/35-31. Packers split their first four games, winning only road game 10-3 (+3) in Chicago; they’ve scored 65 first half points, only 20 second half points this year. GB is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a road underdog, 3-6-1 in last ten games on artificial turf. Cowboys scored 35-31 points in winning their two home games; they ran ball for 179 yards/game in Weeks 1-3, were held to 45 in Superdome LW. Dallas is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite.
Colts (2-2) @ Chiefs (4-0)— Chiefs whacked Colts 31-13 in playoffs LY; Indy’s first TD scored on a blocked punt. KC won last two series games 30-14/31-13 after losing six of the previous seven meetings- Colts won seven of last nine visits to Arrowhead. Indy split its first four games, with all four games decided by 7 or fewer points; under Reich, Indy is 5-2 ATS as a road dog- three of their four games went over. Chiefs scored 15 TD’s on 38 drives in their 4-0 start; in their last two games, only 18 of their 131 plays came on third down. Mahomes has averaged 7.5+ yards/pass attempt in all four games, but he was 0-11 LW on passes that went 30+ yards downfield.
Browns (2-2) @ 49ers (3-0)— Cleveland has had wildly divergent results, splitting its first four games; only one of their four games was decided by less than 15 points. Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games as a road underdog; they were outscored 48-14 in 2nd half of their two losses. 49ers scored 32 ppg in their 3-0 start; they ran ball for 427 yards in last two games. Under Shanahan, SF is 2-4 ATS when laying points at home. Niners lost last six post-bye games (0-6 ATS), with last four losses by 11+ points. Browns won three of last four games with the 49ers, with average total of 29; teams split pair of meetings here.