Panthers (3-2) vs Buccaneers (2-3) (@ London)— Carolina is 3-0 with Allen at QB, scoring 29.3 ppg; they scored 10 TD’s on 33 drives, after scoring three TD’s on 26 drives in Newton’s 2 starts. Bucs (+6.5) posted 20-14 upset in Charlotte in Week 2, holding Panthers to 39 RY, just their 4th win in last 13 series games; teams combined to convert only 5-26 third down plays. Carolina has nine takeaways (+5) in its last three games- they covered five of last six pre-bye games. Tampa Bay allowed 31+ points in four of five games, giving up 12 TD’s on last 33 drives; they split last four game, despite being plus in turnovers all four games. Bucs are on road for third week in row; they’re 14-12 ATS in last 26 games as an NFC South underdog.
Bengals (0-5) @ Ravens (3-2)— Winless Cincy has three losses by 4 or fewer points; they’re 9-3 ATS in last dozen games as road underdogs. In last four games, Bengals allowed 191.5 YR/game and were outscored 61-19 in first half. In their last three games, Cincy has six plays of 20+ yards; their opponents have 17. Ravens won in OT at Pittsburgh LW; they covered six of last nine games the week after playing Pitt. Four of five Baltimore games went over; they’ve run ball for 192.2 yards/game. Ravens are 6-10 ATS in last 16 points as a home favorite, 0-2 TY- they covered once in last nine division games. Teams split last six series games; Bengals won three of last five trips here- four of last five were decided by 5 or fewer points.
Seahawks (4-1) @ Browns (2-3)— Seattle had four extra days to prep for this; they played on Thursday LW, Browns played on Monday. Seahawks are 4-1 with three wins by 1 or 2 points; they’re 5-1-1 ATS in last seven games as road underdogs. Seattle is 6-9-2 ATS in last 17 games on natural grass. Cleveland is 2-3 with only one game decided by less than 15 points; they’re 0-2 SU at home, coring 13 points in both games- -they’re 6-13 ATS in last 19 games as a favorite Seahawks lost two of last three visits to Lake Erie; home side won four of last five series games; Seattle’s last trip here was in 2011. NFC West non-conference road underdogs are 5-0 ATS; AFC North home favorites are 0-5.
Texans (3-2) @ Chiefs (4-1)— Houston exploded for a 53-32 win LW after underdogs covered their first four games; Texans split their first two road games, covered five of last six games when getting points on the road- three of their last four games stayed under. Houston is 10-6 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win. Chiefs lost 19-13 LW after scoring 33.8 ppg in their 4-0 start; they’re 10-7 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite. KC lost field position by 11-7 yards in their last two games- their 6.7 yards/pass attempt LW is a season low. Chiefs won four of last five series games, winning last one 42-34 in ’17; teams split two games here, last of which was in ’13. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 7-1 ATS; AFC West home favorites are 1-4.
Saints (4-1) @ Jaguars (2-3)— Saints won all three of Bridgewater’s starts, scoring 33-12-31 points; they’re 18-8 ATS in their last 26 road games, 8-3 in last 11 as a road favorite, 9-4 in last 13 games on natural grass- they’re 7-1 ATS in last eight games where spread was 3 or fewer points. NO opponents converted only 17 of last 49 third down plays. Jaguars gave up 285 RY in LW’s 34-27 loss at Carolina; Jags are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games as a home dog, but 11-18-1 in last 30 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Jax ran ball for 418 yards the last two weeks; Home side won five of six series games; Saints are 4-2 vs Jags, but lost two of last three visits here, last of which was in 2011.
Eagles (3-2) @ Vikings (3-2)— Eagles won last two games, scoring 34-31 points after a 1-2 start; they’re 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog. Philly won field position by 7+ yards in four of their five games- they held all five opponents under 90 YR. Vikings scored 28+ points in their three wins, 16-6 in their losses. Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 24-7-1 ATS as a home favorite; Vikings ran ball for 172+ yards in 4 of 5 games- Bears held them to 40. Under is 4-1 in Viking games, only one of which was decided by less than 10 points. Philly is 5-3 in last eight series games; they split last six visits to the Twin Cities, last of which was ’13. Wentz grew up in North Dakota, so this is as close to a home game as he’ll get in the NFL.
Redskins (0-5) @ Dolphins (0-4)— Washington fired Jay Gruden Monday, will probably try to run ball more with Callahan the new coach; Redskins haven’t said who the QB will be- they’re 6-4 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite. Washington was outscored 28-0 in 2nd half of last two games. Miami has been outscored 81-0 in 2nd half of games this year; they’re 0-4 ATS, with a 30-10 loss the closest game they’ve played so far. Dolphins were outscored 132-20 in their first three home games. Redskins lost last five visits here, with four of five losses by 7 or less points. NFC East teams are 4-8 ATS outside their division; AFC East teams are 5-6. I would not recommend wagering on this game- two very bad teams.
49ers (4-0) @ Rams (3-2)— Rams had four extra days to prep for this; they played on Thursday LW, 49ers played on Monday. Sense of urgency for LA with 49ers two games up in loss column; Rams scored 69 points in last two games but lost both of them- they turned ball over nine times in last three games (-6), and converted only 7 of last 22 third down plays. LA ran ball 29 times, threw it 117 times in last two games, not usually a good ratio. 49ers are 4-0 with one win by less than 14 points; under Shanahan, SF is 9-7 ATS as a road underdog. 2-0 this year. Niners have 11 takeaways in four games (+3) but also turned it over eight times. LA won three of last four series games, with average total of 64; teams split last four games played here.
Falcons (1-4) @ Cardinals (1-3-1)— Atlanta lost its first three road tilts by 16-3-18 points; they’re 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games- Falcons allowed 12 TD’s on their opponents’ last 25 drives, and allowed 8.1+ yards/pass attempt in four of five games (Philly was 4.6). Cardinals got first win LW, running ball for 266 yards; they’re 0-2-1 at home, losing by 18-17 points- they trailed 24-6 in the game they tied. Arizona is 14-10-1 ATS in its last 25 games as a home dog. Cardinals blew 23-9 lead in last 5:00 at Cincy LW, but kicked FG at gun for their first win. Home side won last eight series games; Falcons lost last three visits to desert, with last one in ’13, but they did beat Redbirds 48-14 (-9.5) at home LY.
Cowboys (3-2) @ Jets (0-4)— Darnold (mono) returns at QB for Jet squad that was outscored 84-23 in last three games; have to be skeptical of his conditioning right off bat. NYJ offense was outscored 14-6 by Philly’s defense in their 55 plays LW- they’re 0-3-1 ATS in last four games as a home underdog. Cowboys lost last two games after a 3-0 start; they scored 31+ points in their three wins, were held to 10-24 in losses. Dallas is 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite on road, 8-4-1 in last 13 games vs AFC squads. Jets won last two series games, 27-24/19-16, after losing seven of previous nine meetings. Dallas won five of seven series games played here. NFC East teams are 4-8 ATS outside their division; AFC East teams are 5-6.
Titans (2-3) @ Broncos (1-4)— Tennessee scored 43-24 points in its wins, 17-7-7 in losses; they were outscored 34-7 in first half of the losses- they outscored foes 36-13 in first half of wins. Titans were 0-4 on FG’s LW, so they changed kickers. Under Vrabel, Titans are 5-2 ATS as an underdog on road. Last four Titan games stayed under the total. Underdogs covered four of five Denver games; Broncos got first win LW, scoring TD’s on first two drives, then hanging on. In their last three games, Denver was outscored 43-16 in second half. Broncos won six of last nine series games; home side won last three. Titans lost last five visits here, losing last one 51-28 in ’13. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 7-1 ATS; AFC West home favorites are 1-4.
Steelers (1-4) @ Chargers (2-3)— 3rd-string QB Devlin gets first NFL start here; he was 7-9/68 passing in his debut LW, an OT home loss to rival Baltimore. Former Bronco Paxton Lynch is the new backup QB. Steelers are 1-4, but three of four losses were by 4 or less points; Pitt is 16-8-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog. Chargers scored only 3 points on four trips to red zone LW in their 20-13 home loss to the Broncos LW- they’re 2-8 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite. Chargers’ only TD LW was scored on a punt return. Bolts’ last four games stayed under the total. Pitt won four of last six visits to San Diego, last of which was in ’15; Chargers (+3) won 33-30 at Heinz Field LY.
Lions (2-1-1) @ Packers (4-1)— Detroit hasn’t played in 15 days; all four of their games were decided by 4 or fewer points, all covered by the underdog. Under Patricia, Lions are 5-2 ATS as road underdogs- three of their four games this year went over. Detroit has nine takeaways in four games (+3); they’re 7-2-1 ATS in last ten games on natural grass. Green Bay has 11 takeaways (+9) in its four wins, zero (-2) in the one loss; Packers are 22-13-2 ATS in last 37 games as a home favorite. Detroit won last four series games, scoring 30+ points in all four; they won four of last five visits here, winning 30-17/31-0 in last two. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 5-10 ATS so far this season.