Cardinals (1-4) @ Vikings (2-2-1)— Arizona got first win LW, but scored only one TD on a drive longer than 26 yards- they were +5 in turnovers at SF, after being -4 in first four games. Redbirds covered last three games, with last two losses by 2-3 points, after losing 24-6/34-0 in first two games, when Bradford was the QB. Arizona is 14-54 (25.9%) on 3rd down for season. Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 19-6 as home favorites, 1-1 this year- they lost last home game as a 17-point favorite. Vikings’ OL is struggling; they ran ball for 14-54-77 yards in last three games. Home side won last six series games; Cardinals lost their last eight trips to Minnesota- their last win here was in ’77. Vikings won four of last five series games overall.
Chargers (3-2) @ Browns (2-2-1)— All five Cleveland games were decided by four or fewer points; three of them went to OT. Browns have had 74 possessions in five games, Chargers have had 50 in theirs. Cleveland is 2-0-1 at home, 3-0 vs spread, after being 3-12 vs spread at home the last two years. Chargers are scoring 27.4 ppg; they won 31-20 (-7.5) at Buffalo in their only games outside LA this year- they lost to Rams in Coliseum. Since moving to LA, Bolts are 5-3-2 vs spread on road- over is 4-1 in their games this season. Chargers are 7-3 in series, splitting last two years; they beat Browns 19-10 at home LY after losing 20-17 here in ’16. AFC North teams are 9-3 vs spread outside their division; AFC West teams are 6-5-1, 4-1-1 as favorites.
Bears (3-1) @ Dolphins (3-2)— Chicago split its first two road games, which were decided by total of 3 points; since 2014, Bears are 0-2 as road favorites. Chicago allowed total of 41 points in its last three games; they’re +5 in turnovers the last two games. Miami lost its last two games, giving up 38-27 points; their OFFENSE allowed two 4th quarter TD’s in collapse at Cincy LW. Dolphins are 2-0 at home, winning by 7-8 points; under Gase, Fish are 6-2-1 as home dogs. Game was Bears’ OC in 2015, before coming to Miami. Chicago lost its last four post-bye games, outscored 143-51. Home side lost six of last seven series games, with Miami winning three of last four. Chicago won three of last four visits here, with last visit in ’10.
Panthers (3-1) @ Redskins (2-2)— Washington defense got riddled by New Orleans Monday nite, giving up 11.3 yds/pass attempt; Redskins scored 24-31 points in their two wins, 9-14 in two losses- under Gruden, they’re 13-15 vs spread at home. Panthers are 7-2 vs spread in last nine games with spread of 3 or fewer points. Carolina lost its only road game, in Atlanta; Panthers scored 31-33 points in winning their last two games with seven takeaways (+5)- their last three games went over total. Carolina won last five series games, last four all by 8+ points; they won 21-13/26-15 in last two visits here. NFC South teams are 5-6 vs spread outside division; NFC East teams are 5-11, 1-6 at home. Since 2015, Redskins are 15-7 vs spread coming off a loss.
Colts (1-4) @ Jets (2-3)— Jets scored 48-34 points in their two wins, 12-17-12 in their losses; they ran ball for 323-169 yards in the wins, average of 61 yds/game in losses- they’re 1-1 at home. Under Bowles, Jets are 16-9-1 vs spread at home. Colts lost last three games, giving up 37-38 points in last two; they split two road games, with both staying under total. Indy scored 20+ points in second half of last two games; they’re 4-6 vs spread in last 10 home games. Home side lost five of last seven series games, with Jets winning three of last four; last three were all decided by 13+ points. Indy won three of last five visits here. AFC East teams are 6-1 vs spread in non-divisional home games; AFC South teams are 2-5 in non-divisional road games.
Steelers (2-2-1) @ Bengals (4-1)— Two weeks ago, Bengals had 28 points at halftime, then TE Eifert got hurt in 3rd quarter; since then, Cincy scored only two offensive TD’s on 14 drives- two of their three 4th quarter TD’s vs Miami Sunday were scored by the defense. Since ’14, Bengals are 12-13-1 as home favorites, 1-0 this year- they won their two home games by 11-10 points. Pitt scored 30+ points in three of last four games; they haven’t trailed at halftime yet this season (were tied twice). Steelers are underdog for first time this year; since ’13, they’re 9-6-1 vs spread as road dogs. Steelers won last six series games and 14 of last 17; they won last five visits here, last three by 2-4-3 points.
Buccaneers (2-2) @ Falcons (1-4)— Atlanta allowed 43-37-41 points in its last three games, giving up 15 TD’s on 30 drives (foes are 23 of last 38 on 3rd down). Average total in their three home games is 69.3. Falcons scored 31-37-36 points at home; when their defenders return, they will start winning again. Under Quinn, Atlanta is 9-15 as home favorites. Tampa Bay is 3-4 vs spread in last seven post0bye games. Bucs gave up 30+ points in three of four games; under Koetter, they’re 8-6-1 as road underdogs. Atlanta is 13-6 in last 19 series games, winning last three by 15-14-3 points, but Bucs won two of last three visits here- home side lost five of last seven series games. Average total in Bucs’ last five visits here, 55.2.
Seahawks (2-3) vs Raiders (1-4) (@ London)— Very long trip for both sides, coming from west coast to play 10am PT game across pond. Seattle ran ball for 171-190 yards in last two games, which were decided by total of five points; they’re 2-5-1 vs spread in last eight games with spread of 3 or less points. Oakland allowed 32 ppg in last three games; 3-5-2 in last 10 games with spread of less or less. Seahawks covered six of last seven pre-bye games; Raiders are 1-5-1 vs spread in their last seven. Seattle is one of four NFL teams not to score yet on its first drive of game (29 plays, 115 yards, five punts). NFC West teams are 5-4-1 vs spread outside the division; AFC West teams are 6-5-1.
Bills (2-3) @ Texans (2-3)— Houston won its last two games in OT after an 0-3 start, trying nine FG’s, scoring four TD’s (4.18 pts/red zone drive); Texans are 2-5 in last seven games as home favorites. Houston gained 427+ TY in each of last four games, which were all decided by 5 or fewer points. Since ’08, Bills are 22-39-3 vs spread coming off a win; in last two games, Buffalo threw for 87-79 yards, scoring one TD on 20 drives. Under McDermott, Bills are 5-4 as road underdogs; their three losses this year are all by 11+ points. Buffalo was outscored 18-6 in second half of its last three games. Teams split eight meetings; Bills lost 21-9/23-17 in last two visits here- their last win in Houston was in ’06.
Rams (5-0) @ Broncos (2-3)— Winter weather expected in Denver for this. Rams are 5-0, with road wins 33-13 in Oakland, 33-31 in Seattle. Under McVay, LA is 4-3 as road favorites- they’ve scored 33+ in all five games this year, with last three going over. In last two games, Rams ran 118 plays; only 15 of them came on third down- they averaged 9.5+ yds/pass attempt in last four games. Denver allowed 323 rushing yards in loss to Jets LW; Broncos lost last three games, by 13-4-18 points- they’re 5-3 in last eight games as home underdogs. Rams won last three series games, by 8-3-15 points- they split six visits here. Denver QB Keenum started nine games for Rams in ’16, going 4-5 before then-rookie Goff took over.
Jaguars (3-2) @ Cowboys (2-3)— Dallas is 2-3 after OT loss in Houston; they scored 20-26 in the wins, 8-13-16 in losses- they’re 2-0 at home, 0-3 on road. In last three games, Cowboys have only three TD’s on 31 drives, with nine FGA’s (3.67 pts/red zone drives). Under Garrett, Dallas is 7-7-2 as home underdogs. Jaguars gained 503-502 yards in last two games, but turned ball over eight times (-6) and split pair; Jags are 3-0 scoring 20+ points, 0-2 scoring less- they’re 4-4 in last eight games as home underdogs. Teams split six series games; Jaguars split four visits here, last of which was in ’10. AFC South teams are 5-8 vs spread outside division, 2-5 as favorites; NFC East teams are 5-11 vs spread, 1-6 at home.
Ravens (3-2) @ Titans (3-2)— Tennessee’s last four games (3-1) were all decided by 3 or fewer points; in their last three games, Titans scored only three TD’s on 30 drives- they’re 2-0 at home this year, nipping Texans/Eagles by FG each. Titans are 12-19-2 in last 33 games where spread was 3 or fewer points- only once in five games have Titans scored more than six points in first half. Baltimore is 5-9-1 in last 15 games as road favorites; they’re 1-2 on road this year, with underdogs covering all three games. Tennessee beat Ravens 23-20 here LY; they’re 5-3 in last eight series games. Baltimore lost 26-13/23-20 in last two visits here. Third straight road game for Ravens, notorious NFL soft spot over years.
Chiefs (5-0) @ Patriots (3-2)— KC won/covered first five games with precocious QB Mahomes under center; three of those games were on road. Chiefs covered seven of last 10 games as road underdogs; they’ve scored 20 TD’s on 46 drives this year. Patriots scored 38-38 points in their last two games, with WR’s Edelman/Gordon back in lineup; they’re 3-0 at home, winning by 7-31-14 points. Since ’13, NE is 25-11-3 vs spread as home favorites. Chiefs (+8.5) riddled NE 42-27 in season opener LY, using edge in speed with their WR’s- it was KC’s first win in last seven visits to Foxboro- home side won five of last six series games. Over is 15-10-1 in Chiefs’ last 26 road games, 42-25 in Patriot home games since 2010.
49ers (1-4) @ Packers (2-2-1)— 49ers lost last three games, by 11-2-10 points; under Shanahan, they’re 6-3 as road underdogs, 1-1 this year. SF outgained Cardinals 447-220 LW, but turned ball over five times (-5) and lost 28-18 at home- their last four games went over total. Green Bay is 1-2-1 in its last four games; Crosby missed four FG’s/PAT last week in 31-23 loss. Packers are 2-0-1 at home, winning by 1-22 points; they’re 18-9-2 vs spread in last 29 games as a home favorites. Niners won four of last five series games, winning 30-22/23-20 in last two visits here- their last visit here was a 2013 playoff game. In their last three games, Packers outscored their opponents 36-10, but they’ve also trailed three games this year by 17+ points at halftime.